When former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who was born in December 1925, took over the top position in July 1981, he was 55 years old. When he retired in October 2003 at the age of 77, he had already governed for 22 years.

Love or loathe him, he has left behind a complex (or confusing), and psychologically, ideologically as well as institutionally entrenched legacies.

Past premiers

The only predecessor of Dr Mahathir Mohamad who came closest to him in the length of holding the top office was Tunku Abdul Rahman (1903-1990) who became the first prime minister at the age of 54 in August 1957.

He served for about 12 years before he was effectively ousted in mid-1969 and then formally succeeded by Tun Abdul Razak in 1970. In 1970, the Tunku was 67 years of age.

For the next twenty years, Tunku became an active critic and even vocal opponent of Mahathir whom the former believed to be defaming him in "poison-pen" letters in the late 1960s.

The two successors of the Tunku, namely Tun Abdul Razak (1922 - 1976) and Tun Hussein Onn (1922-1990) were less fortunate. Taking over from the Tunku in 1970 at the age of 48, Tun Abdul Razak died prematurely of leukemia in London in January 1976 at the age of 54.

Succeeding him at the age of 54, Tun Hussein Onn quit in 1981 apparently for health reason. There is also an alternative account that his departure was the result of political pressure mounted within Umno by Mahathir and his supporters.

His tenure only lasted five years, and was the shortest so far. He passed away in May 1990 at the age of 68.

Like the Tunku, Tun Hussein Onn also became highly critical of Mahathir's leadership in the late 1980s. Together with the Tunku, he publicly opposed the new party set up by Mahathir after the original Umno that was formed in 1946 was declared an illegal organisation by the court in 1988 after a prolonged and intense power struggle.

They supported former Finance Minister Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah to lead an opposition party to oppose Mahathir's new Umno.

Factors at the top

Given their very brief stay at the top, both Tun Abdul Razak and Tun Hussein Onn did not leave behind strong memories and legacies, especially as the official media in the Mahathir era is determined to create an idolatrous cult of personality.

From these historical patterns, it could be reasoned that the age of taking up the top post, length of tenure, intra-party power struggles as well as the physical state of personal health are, among other factors like the quality of close advisers, critical for the performance of the prime minister.

Surviving all major power struggles in Umno since 1970s and assuming the top office at the age of 64, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is certainly the oldest to become the prime minister so far.

On the assumptions that there is no major power struggle within his party (or he could survive it) and that his state of physical health allows him to perform his duty, the maximum length of his tenure can only last for about three terms or 15 years, until he is about 79 years of age.

Given the precedence set up by Mahathir, serving the top office at an age lower than 80 seems to be acceptable to Umno and the ruling elites, although it may not be so among ordinary voters, especially the younger ones.

However, would his personal state of physical heath allow him to serve a full three-term until he is about 79 years of age? How many years he can reign? Who will be most likely after him? These seem to be some one of the popular, albeit quiet, concerns of many ruling elites as well as ordinary people.

Of course, public appearance could be deceptive or misleading, but then the amount of complex issues he will have to deal with and settle could also sap, and even exhaust prematurely, his physical and mental energies, especially in a political environment that are dependent (or over-dependent) on personal leadership, rather than established modern systems and institutions.

Mahathir has set the precedence of a prime minister who finds it necessary or enjoyable to personally give public instructions, inspirations and advices on affairs of all kind ranging from cleaning up public toilets in Kuala Lumpur to managing the geopolitical balance of global powers from the Americas to Europe, Africa and Middle East, Central Asia and the Asia-Pacific region.

Although Mahathir has publicly announced that he would not be a "back-seat driver" after his retirement, it is still to early to assume that he would not give "advices" to Abdullah, especially on issues relating to the conduct of foreign affairs and international relations as well as management of the economy, both macro and micro.

Critics and opponents

Historically, there are also the precedents of the Tunku and Hussein Onn playing the roles of critics and opponents, for many years after their retirement, to their regrettable successor, namely Mahathir himself.

An Abdullah pulled into two opposite directions between the need to preserve Mahathirism (either due to his personal loyalty or political pressure mounted by Mahathir, his diehard supporters and other veterans in the government and Umno) on one hand, and the forces that are opposed to and critical of Mahathirism on the other, would most likely not be a dynamic and active innovator as advertised or expected, but only a static and passive balancer.

If Abdullah is a reformer at heart, then how to reduce and eliminate the influence of Mahathir and his diehard supporters in Umno, the National Front and government in the shortest possible time seems to be a political agenda of top priority.

To ensure his effective and credible command at the top of Umno, the National Front and government, Abdullah also has to play discreet and sensitive balancing acts at different levels of the party and coalition 'jungles'.

One, within Umno, he has to settle the appointment of his deputy to the satisfaction of the majority of top leaders and their personal advisers, supporters and followers. How the other two vice presidents and their supporters who lose out would react is interesting to observe.

Two, within each component parties of the Umno-dominated National Front, he has to attempt to ensure that power struggles would not break out in the open as MCA did from 2000 to 2003, but then as the demands for more "independence" and rejections of Umno's "intervention" increase among the ranks and files of these parties, the task is extremely difficult.

Three, while it is always to the hegemonic interest of Umno to keep non-Malay component parties and leaderships within the National Front subtly divided and competitive within a manageable framework, Abdullah (as the chairperson) has also to ensure that inter-party coordination are maintained, at least, for the short-run in the run-up to the general election.

Four, as the new prime minister, he has also to set up his own Cabinet and reallocate portfolios, and the vacancy of Finance Minister left behind by Mahathir himself is highly sensitive, given the facts that Abdullah himself does not seem to have strong economic or financial knowledge and that the world market and media are watching closely for any signs of corruption, cronyism and nepotism.

Structural factors

So, coming into power at an rather old age, and beset with factionalism, power struggles and intrigues as well as generational shift within the ruling parties and elites, Abdullah's personal performance is likely to be limited by these structural factors.

Of course, Abdullah may not necessarily be right vis--vis those who disagree with or opposed to him. His opponents, if any, may be right.

Besides, he has also to face challenges from (a) a new configuration of international and regional powers in the post-post-Cold War world (b) an increasingly vocal civil society that demand for democratic governance, human rights and civil rights, and (c) the opposition front that has been vastly strengthened after the 1999 general elections.

So, although less rhetorical, politics in Malaysia will still be very lively.

JAMES WONG WING ON is chief analyst of Strategic Analysis Malaysia (SAM). Wong is a former member of Parliament (1990-1995) and a former columnist for the Sin Chew Jit Poh Chinese daily (now Sin Chew Daily ). He read political science and economics at the Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. While in Sin Chew , he and a team of journalists won the top awards of Malaysian Press Institute (MPI) for 1998 and 1999.