Some Indian politicians, both from the Barisan Nasional (BN) component parties and the opposition, are currently very dissatisfied as their ambitions of contesting in the forthcoming polls through their respective parties have come to naught.

The BN has allocated two additional parliamentary and four state seats to the MIC and one parliamentary and one state seat to PPP, which claims to be a multi-racial party but in reality is another Indian-based party.

When PPP failed to persuade the BN supreme council to allocate it more than two seats, its former secretary-general A.Ayyathurai, who was also the party's Perak vice-chairperson, left to join Keadilan with some of his supporters.

In Gerakan, meanwhile, A. Rajaratnam, secretary of the Lembah Jaya division, claims that non-Chinese members in Selangor were upset when they were not chosen to contest in the coming polls.

Gerakan president Dr Lim Keng Yaik, was frank to reveal that they were not chosen because they were not 'winnable' candidates in the face of Chinese opposition candidates in predominantly Chinese constituencies.

It must be based on this criterion that Rhina Bhar, Gerakan Wanita chief, was not allocated a seat. But she is expected to be made a senator when the party's current nominee, Dr. Vijayaratnam serves out his senate term.

PPP nominated its Perak vice chairperson, Lee Heng, to contest the predominantly Chinese state seat of Pasir Bedamar but it took some time for prime minister and BN supreme council chairperson Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to find a winnable seat for PPP chief M Kayveas (photo left).

He was offered Bukit Gantang, a predominantly Malay parliamentary seat, but Umno leaders there said no. Finally, it took the gracious gesture of Gerakan chief Lim, to swap Bukit Gantang for the party's blue-ribbon seat of Taiping.

Mood change

Gerakan is acceptable to Umno but not the PPP, including its president. Kayveas has beeen given his first lesson in humility. His chances of victory in Taiping lie overly in the generosity of Malay and Chinese voters there.

He should be reminded that then MCA deputy president Dr Lim Swee Aun, who was then Trade Minister, was defeated in the 1969 polls by an unknown Gerakan Chinese candidate. Dr Lim was a Taiping boy whereas Kayveas is an outsider or carpetbagger with little appeal to the two majority races there - the Malays and the Chinese.

The problem for the Indian candidates in any Malaysian polls lies in the fact that there is not a single state or parliamentary seat in the country with an Indian majority. The closest is Ipoh Baran's Buntong state seat, now with 49% Indian voters, and appears to be the best seat for an opposition Indian candidate. The incumbent is MCA's Yik Pooi Hong.

In the 1999 general election, the popularity of the BN-MIC candidates, including Samy Vellu whose majority was trimmed by a hefty 66.4%, saw a big dive. All MIC parliamentary candidates then polled less than the total votes of the two state assemblymen in their respective constituencies.

When there is change of mood among the Malay and Chinese voters, MIC candidates are on the receiving end. Like the grass, MIC candidates suffer when the elephants either fight or make love.

In the Teluk Kemang parliamentary by-election following the death of SA Anbalagan whose majority was reduced by 55%, his successor S Sothinathan's majority was further reduced by about 40% by Keadilan's Ruslan Kassim, who has since rejoined Umno.

And MIC also received a huge shock at the Lunas state seat by-election in Kedah in 2000 when its candidate S Anthonysamy was defeated by Keadilan's Saifuddin Nasution by 530 votes.

The MIC incumbent who had passed away, Dr Joe Fernandes, had won by a majority of 4,700 votes. Samy Vellu had to eat his words - he had openly declared that he would not come back to Kuala Lumpur if MIC failed to defend this blue-ribbon seat. Note that Malays and Chinese formed 80% of the voters in Lunas then.

Formula One

This time around, MIC will contest in nine parliamentary and 19 state seats. If there are any lesson to be learnt from Teluk Kemang and Lunas, it is that MIC leaders and candidates should be mindful of not stepping on the toes of the Malays and Chinese, at least not until after they have cast their votes on March 21.

The "feel good" political climate created by Abdullah is not an almighty shield that can protect all BN candidates. Like the Formula One race we are going to see in Sepang on the same day as polling day, even the best car, be it a Ferrari, BMW or Mercedes, will need a good driver to steer it to victory.

The Barisan Alternatif (BA) has now fielded nine non-Indian candidates (seven Malay and two Chinese) against the MIC thus threatening 60% of MIC state candidates. The success of the BA non-Indian candidates will have wide implications for the Indian community.

BA must review a similar move in the next general election in order not to antagonise the Indian community.

Except in Johore. Melaka and Negeri Sembilan where the Malays appear to be still solidly behind Umno and BN, the disaffection among Malay voters in the other states in Peninsular Malaysia poses a serious threat to the political survival of MIC state candidates.

If this trend persists, MIC candidates may be wiped out in several states in subsequent general elections unless BA fields Indian candidates in MIC seats.

But neither the BA nor the DAP seems to have any clear policy on how they will handle this poser thrown up by the new political scenario.