For many years in the past, whenever the security situation in southern Thailand was discoursed, it had always been uncritically assumed that the only root causes are the troubled history and identity of the Malay-Muslims in the provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani, Yala, Songkhla and Satun.

Separatism was almost entirely seen to have been ideologically constructed in the forms of religio-ethnic nostalgia and territorial irredentism to reclaim the golden or glorious past. This ideological construct may still be held by some individuals or organisations in southern Thailand or even Malaysia.

If that is the objective, separatism of the Malays-Muslims in southern Thailand, either articulated in the form of setting up an independent Islamic State or joining Malaysia territorially, seems to be merely nostalgic utopianism nowadays. For Malaysia and Thailand are now internationally recognised sovereign nation-states whose territorial border has also been generally settled.

Unless there is a major upheaval in the world or region in the scale and scope of the Second World War, it is impossible to alter the settled territorial border between Malaysia and Thailand as in the cases of the 1909 Anglo-Siamese Treaty or the 1943 treaty between Thailand and Japan. Moreover, an independent Islamic State will certainly not be allowed or tolerated, let alone recognised, by Thailand, Malaysia and the mainstream community of nation-states.

However, if the separatism in southern Thailand means only continuing resistance to the assimilation attempts by the Thai-Buddhist majority and the struggle for recognition by, and inclusion into, the larger national community, then possible scenarios and options change:

One, all over the world, resistance and struggle for recognition and inclusion of such nature could always be exploited as political, diplomatic and even military leverages.

Two, the sentiments and aspirations of resistance and struggle for recognition and inclusion could also be exploited by terrorists or terrorist organisations to gain popular support, sympathy and following.

Surrogate warriors

Of course, theoretically, terrorists or terrorist organisations themselves could in turn be used by certain regimes to be surrogate warriors (a form of military leverage) for conducting special operations. (see Ian O Lesser., et al., Countering the New Terrorism , Santa Monica, Rand, 1999; p. 15)

It seems that as far as southern Thailand is now concerned, international and region focus is on whether the separatist sentiments and aspirations have been exploited by international or regional terrorists such as al-Qaeda or Jemaah Islamiah (JI) and their strategic or tactical allies.

In his studies of the global network of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda, counter-terrorism expert Rohan Gunaratna observed that although the characters of the Pattani United Liberation Organisation (Pulo) and its splinter group, New Pulo has grown more Islamic, there is no intelligence to indicate that they are linked to al-Qaeda. The studies were published in 2002 under the title Inside Al Qaeda - Global Network of Terror (London, Hurst, 2002; p. 203)

However, since the studies were conducted, situations may or may not have changed. Moreover, Pulo and new Pulo are not the only two groups that claim to right the wrongs said to have been done to Malay-Muslims in southern Thailand by the central government in Bangkok.

A relatively liberal, credible and independent US security research and documentation group, Global Security, has identified another six other groups that make similar claims. They are (i) Mujahideen Pattani Movement, (ii) Pattani Liberation Front or Barisan Nasional Pembebasan Pattani (BNPP), (iii) National Revolutionary Front or Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), (iv) Pattani Islamic Mujahideen Movement or Gerakan Mujahideen Islam Pattani (GMIP), (v) Mujahideen Islamic Pattani Group and (vi) Bersatu or United Front for the Independence of Pattani.

Moreover, also according to Global Security, some Tamil Tigers were believed to be operating in the Phuket area and they were alleged to be using southern Thailand as a logistical base.

Fertile ground

Indeed, southern Thailand seems to be a fertile ground for all types of discontent and potentially or actually violent groups and their activities, including organised criminals, for the following reasons:

One, its geographical as well as political, psychological distance from the centre of the state in Bangkok (psychological distance refers to the strongly felt differences in ethnicity, religion, language, tradition and history or, in short, collective identity);

Two, its socio-economic underdevelopment which has created a pool of unemployed or unemployable youths whose resentment is further aggravated by comparisons between their own areas with the more affluent part of the country centered around Bangkok, or between their own living standard with that of foreign (especially Western) tourists;

Three, with the fall of the government in Bangkok led by the more self-lightened and liberal Democratic Party and the assumption of office by the more authoritarian Thaksin Shinawatra (who, rightly or wrongly, self-styles himself and styled by some as the Thai version of Dr Mahathir Mohamad), the various ideational and socio-economic grievances are now less effectively channeled within the peaceful and liberal democratic framework;

Four, according to Global Security, it has always been a dumping ground for corrupt and/or incompetent civilian and military officials.

Weaknesses

According to a Western diplomat in Kuala Lumpur who told malaysiakini , the prevalence of bureaucratic corruption and incompetence among civilian and military officials as well as the police has led to loose border and immigration controls, population registration and proliferation of illegal arms.

According to him, these problems are further compounded by the reliance or dependence of the local economy on the influx of international and regional tourists.

Given these internal and structural weaknesses of the state, it remains to be seen if the declaration of martial law in Jan 5 this year would be effective in arresting the decline of southern Thailand into a virtual breakdown of basic law and order.

Also, the globally controversial uses of what is popularly seen as excessive force by the military in recent days would probably fuel more widespread and deeply-felt resentment that may violently explode again at a point of time in the future if no appropriate measures are taken to win back the hearts and minds of the ordinary people in the areas.

Seen in these contexts, the solutions to the problems in southern Thailand have to be multi-pronged: while the appropriate law-and-order approach and proportional use of legitimate force may still be required, it is equally important for the Thai authorities to address the following problems:

One, the peaceful and legitimate parts of the struggle of Malay-Muslim minority in southern Thailand against what is seen to be the destruction or erosion of their collective identity;

Two, the legitimate aspirations of Malay-Muslim minority in southern Thailand to be effectively included, and seen and felt to be effectively included, in the mainstream socio-economic development and political participation of the larger Thai nation-state and society;

Three, the legitimate grievances of the ordinary people in southern Thailand against governmental corruption and abuses of human rights

Indeed, the success of the Malaysian government, its Thai counterpart and the Communist Party of Malaya (CPM) in securing the historic peace with honour and dignity for all sides can serve as a model or positive lesson for solving the current problems in southern Thailand.

As a veteran non-governmental observer of the affairs in southern Thailand suggested to this writer, the political wisdoms and talents of people like former Malaysian Inspector General of Police Rahim Noor and his fellow negotiator Yau Kong Yew, ex-Deputy Commander of Thailand's Fourth Army General Kitti Rattanachaya and secretary-general of CPM, Chin Peng could be used again to bring peace with dignity and honour to southern Thailand.

"They know the history, geography, population and problems in southern Thailand very well, and they also have the practical experiences in solving a long-standing conflict which involved themselves; it's perhaps time for both the Malaysian and Thai authorities to be flexible and creative, and to enroll them again as advisers as well as the role models for peace with dignity and honour," he added.

JAMES WONG WING ON is chief analyst of Strategic Analysis Malaysia (SAM). Wong is a former DAP member of parliament for Kampar (1990-1995) and a former columnist for the Sin Chew Jit Poh Chinese daily (now Sin Chew Daily ). He read political science and economics at the Monash University in Melbourne, Australia.