Dearth of Umno leaders

QUESTION TIME A motley mix of six candidates are contesting for the three vice-presidential posts for Umno up for grabs over the weekend. The sad thing about that is that none of them are really prime ministerial material, once again demonstrating the extreme dearth of leadership in Umno.

The elections are nevertheless interesting as one of them is quite likely to become deputy president if and when Najib Abdul Razak steps down from leadership of the party and enables deputy president Muhyiddin Yassin to ascend to the top position.

And if all goes well, and all does NOT always go well as former deputy president and current opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim can testify, the deputy has a pretty good chance of becoming president if he plays his cards right and a get crack at running the country as prime minister.

The three incumbents in this race are new Home Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (who garnered the highest votes in the last polls in 2009 with 1,575) followed by Defence Minister Hishammuddin Hussein (1,515) and Rural and Regional Development Minister Mohd Shafie Apdal (1,445).

Those who are aspiring to unseat one or more of them are former Malacca chief minister Mohd Ali Rustam, former Negri Sembilan menteri besar Mohd Isa Samad and recently anointed Kedah Menteri Besar, Mukhriz Mahathir.

Let’s take a look at the candidates, starting with the incumbents. Ahmad Zahid (left), the new home minister, stepped into his position in a cloud of controversy as he advocated that police shoot first before asking questions, misleadingly put a racial slant on crime painting Malays as victims, Indians as perpetrators and Chinese as the brains behind crime, and called himself a Malay gangster.

Some think he may have deliberately chosen to take a stance like this to portray himself as a champion of the Malay race ahead of the Umno polls. He has pulled such stunts before.

Ahmad Zahid was once considered to be a die-hard Anwar supporter. In fact at an Umno Youth general assembly in June 1998, when he was head of the organisation, he attacked then-prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, condemning cronyism and nepotism in the country’s economic management.

The move was seen as Anwar-inspired to bring about a popular movement within the party to urge Mahathir to step down much like Indonesian president Suharto was forced to resign from his post then during the reformasi movement there. If it had succeeded, Ahmad Zahid’s fortunes would have soared.

Anwar was subsequently stripped of all positions in government and Umno, incarcerated and charged with sodomy. Ahmad Zahid recanted and soon after resumed his steady climb up the party ranks. This Anwar die-hard died easily when the chips were down.

He is a dangerous man and has shown himself willing to take chances to advance his rise on the party ladder, even at the expense of causing extreme turbulence along the way.

Hishammuddin (right) got only 60 votes less than Ahmad Zahid in the last Umno polls for the vice-presidential race. Now, however, some see his chances of retaining the post as having declined. Perhaps he needs to wave his keris again to increase his appeal within Umno.

Keris-waving enraged many non-Malays

He was home minister before Ahmad Zahid took over and now handles defence. His keris-waving episode in 2005 enraged many non-Malays. During his tenure as home minister, the Internal Security Act was repealed as was the Emergency Ordinance. That was not his doing though but Najib’s.

Detractors say he was soft on organisations like Bersih and not hard enough on defending Malay rights. An examination of his record reveals otherwise and as with other home ministers before and after him he has often enough defended the indefensible.

Still, he must have a good chance of retaining his position given his tenures as former Umno Youth chief as well as home minister and education minister, being son of a respected former prime minister and cousin of the current prime minister.

Also, Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin, himself son-in-law of a former prime minister and who last week easily retained his position, appears to be supporting him, which will count for something.

Shafie Apdal’s (right) main credentials to retain his position appears to be support from Sabah Umno, although it is not clear whether it will continue to be forthcoming following some division among Sabah delegates. As the one who got the least votes among the three the last time and his relatively low profile in the peninsula, he is still likely to be the one most easily dislodged by the new aspirants.

Two of them are actually old hats at Umno. Ali Rustam actually attempted to contest for the deputy president’s post in the 2009 Umno elections but was stopped from doing so after being accused of money politics. That left the contest for the deputy’s position then between Muhyiddin and former strongman, Muhammad Muhammad Taib, with the former winning.

Ali Rustam continued as chief minister nevertheless and lost a contest for a parliamentary seat in the last elections. He has joined the racist bandwagon, describing Chinese as ungrateful and alleging that they run illegal businesses. As with Zahid, he is probably hoping that kind of rhetoric will win him some support. Unlike Zahid, Ali Rustam is being investigated for sedition after a police report was lodged against him.

But because of his past and his inability to even win his parliamentary seat - he blamed the Chinese for it - it is not going to be that easy for him to get in, although many observers think he has a good chance of dislodging one of the incumbents.

Isa Samad has also been found guilty of money politics in Umno before. He is the high-profile chairperson of Felda Holdings and listed Felda Global Ventures (FGV), both of which have been pilloried for expensive acquisitions.

Pro-Umno bloggers are weighing into Isa for the Felda/FGV buys and in addition are blaming him for getting rid of ailing Sabri Ahmad as CEO of FGV. His chances overall of getting a post have to be pretty small.

Dark horse

The dark horse is Mahathir’s son Mukhriz, who recently ascended to become menteri besar of Kedah after Barisan Nasional wrested the state back from an ineffectual PAS government, reputedly with a lot of help from Mahathir and his former finance minister Daim Zainuddin, both of whom hail from Kedah.

Mukhriz (left) lost a the three-cornered fight for the Umno Youth presidency in 2009 to Khairy who polled 304 votes, while Mukhriz only received 232 votes and former Selangor menteri besar Mohd Khir Toyo got 254 votes.

Still, Najib pulled in Mukhriz as a deputy minister, leaving Khairy out in the cold, apparently to placate Mahathir who can become quite a thorn in the side if he is ignored, slighted or mistreated in some way. Mahathir’s dislike for Khairy is well known.

But in the latest cabinet reshuffle in May, Khairy was appointed youth and sports minister. His cabinet appointment gives him at least equal standing and then some against Mukhriz who is chief minister. But if Mukhriz wins a post as vice-president, that may mean he vaults over Khairy in the succession hierarchy despite Khairy’s crushing victory in the Umno Youth polls last week.

Will Mukhriz win? Perhaps if Mahathir’s standing in Umno is still strong enough, but many doubt it. Given the other two old hats’ - Ali Rustam’s and Isa’s - credentials Mukhriz is less tainted apart from the misfortune (or fortune) of being Mahathir’s son.

Bets should be even that the incumbents will be returned. If one of them goes (the most likely could be Shafie Apdal), the one to take their place could be Ali Rustam or Mukhriz with Mukhriz perhaps having the edge.

This time around, after changes were made, Umno’s leadership will be picked by about 146,000 delegates from 191 divisions nationwide under a complicated system. In addition to the vice-president posts there will be polls for supreme council members. The new system throws up further uncertainty over the polls.

Najib and his deputy Muhyiddin Yassin were returned unopposed.

It is a telling indictment of Umno that the party does not have in its more immediate list of successors anyone who will be clearly better than the current prime minister and that the two upcoming new leaders are just Mukhriz and Khairy.

But at least Mukhriz and Khairy are not so strident in terms of racist stance and may bring in some fresh air into a very stale, old, archaic environment.

P GUNASEGARAM is the founding editor of KiniBiz.