In politics, anything can happen. The unexpected can occur, and the expected often does not materialise. In the context of Umno politics, this is even more so. History has shown that nothing is certain in the nation's largest Malay party.

In Umno, no one can thump his chest and declare that he is a future party leader. No one can boast and proudly declare that he controls Umno. The real power lies in the hands of grassroots members, and in wealth [money politics].

Even then, the influence of wealth is only for a short while. When the members become disgusted with the antics of such a leader, they will return to basics.

The Malay people, though increasingly materialistic, still have some measure of values and morality, and a culture of honour is still maintained especially when their survival is threatened.

Such is the scenario in the process to elect Umno leaders this September. Nothing is certain, except for some leaders who have already won uncontested.

At this stage, only Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, Najib Abdul Razak, Rafidah Aziz, Shahrizat Abdul Jalil, Hishammuddin Hussein and Khairy Jamaluddin can sleep easy.

Another Umno leader who can take a long rest is Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. (Ku Li). He no longer needs to crack his head and labour following his concession of defeat in his challenge for the Umno presidency, and his pledge not to try again for that post in future. Congratulations, Ku Li, for being the last man in Umno who still had the Merdeka [independence] spirit!

Among those Umno members who cannot be at ease are the eight candidates for the three posts of vice-president. Muhyiddin Yassin, Mohd Ali Rustam, Muhammad Muhd Taib and Mustapha Mohamed must now be nervously awaiting the month of September.

So too for Shahrir Samad, Adnan Yaakob, Mohd Isa Samad and Syed Hamid Albar. Their sleep must be filled with both sweet dreams and nightmares.

Delegates' appetite

Those who are lucky will survive, those who are not, will be destroyed. Their fate now lies in the hands of over 2,000 Umno delegates. Approximately three million Umno members no longer decide the political fate of the eight vice-presidential candidates; just the portion who are delegates will determine the outcome.

Eventhough some of the eight had each secured a large number of nominations, they cannot thump their chests yet.

The history of Umno shows that a large number of nominations does not reflect on the actual situation. The number of nominations can mislead, and a mistake in a date can be a trap.

This was clearly proven in the 1987 polls in which Ku Li only secured the minimum two nominations then needed to qualify to contest the party presidency. In the actual polls however, he almost defeated Dr Mahathir Mohamad. The former premier, who had secured such a huge number of nominations, only won by a majority of 41 votes!

As such, even though Muhyiddin received 157 nominations, Mohd Ali 112 and Muhd Taib 88, they cannot be sure of winning a vice-president's post.

The three leaders cannot be over-confident because shocks can happen on polling day. Mustapha and Shahrir can still mount strong challenges.

On paper, it cannot be denied that Muhyiddin and Mohd Ali appear popular and strong. Their chances appear beyond doubt. Muhd Taib still has the ability to maintain his popularity despite being out of government for a long time.

But that is only looking at the nominations decided on by delegates at divisional meetings. There will be different delegates attending the general assembly, and the story will not be the same.

Delegates chosen to attend the general assembly may not have the same appetite as delegates at the grassroots level. They may support Shahrir, Mustapha or Syed Hamid. These delegates' stances may not be the same as what their divisional head or the state Umno information head had decided on.

Using the media

On top of that, the Umno polls are still a long way off. There is still more than a month to go, and during this period, a variety of issues and incidents can crop up. There can be all sorts of doubts, speculation, controversies and poison pen letters. All these will determine the rise and fall of the candidates.

Everyone knows that the candidates are not allowed to campaign. But the ban only applies to live campaigning, especially through the media and campaigning at meetings. Indirect campaigning is difficult to stop. Candidates can make press statements or appear on TV in the course of carrying out their official duties.

This is an advantage for those candidates who are still in the government, and something unfortunate for the former Selangor menteri besar, who is defending his vice-president's post for the third term. Shahrir at least has the platform afforded by his positions as the chairperson of the Backbenchers' Club and as the MP for Johor Bharu.

As such, the period of over one month is both a challenge and an opportunity for the candidates who are still in the government to make full use of every available official function to promote themselves. This is the time for them to show to the rakyat, or more accurately, to the more than 2,000 delegates who will be attending the general assembly, that they can get things done.

Aside from this indirect campaigning, it cannot be denied that silent campaigns by agents or supporters of the candidates are going on widely. In the hands of every campaign manager is the complete list of delegates to the general assembly. Names, addresses and telephone numbers are available. These supporters are busy dashing here and there during the period of over one month to lobby for their respective "bosses".

All sorts of meetings in cafes, coffee houses and hotels have been arranged. Electronic campaigning via e-mail and SMS are being arranged. Aside from that, poison pen letters have already been prepared, ready for distribution.

In the heat of the fights for posts, it is not surprising that money politics has shown its ugly face again. Even at much lower - division or branch - level elections, there have been accusations of widespread money politics, so what more when it comes to the much more important central posts?

As such, the candidates need to be careful, and ensure that support does not cause their downfall too. None of the candidates for the vice-presidency can sleep easy for the next one month or so.

Each of them must surely be dreaming of how to get the most votes to become the third most influential person in Umno. The most influential vice-president [of the three vice-presidents] is traditionally the candidate for [future] deputy premiership!