Will the light from PAS' full moon overcome the waves of blue in Kuala Berang this time around? Will there be a shock, or will the status quo be maintained?

PAS supporters are praying for a shock which favours their candidate while Umno is hoping that the state seat will not change hands again just five months after it had been wrested from PAS.

In the general election of March, the light from PAS' moon waned throughout Terengganu. The surging waves of blue were too strong, and almost all of the state's top PAS leaders floundered on home turf.

Over the past five months, have the blue waves have died down or have they surged even more after Menteri Besar Idris Jusoh has proven his leadership abilities so effectively? Many political observers have opined that PAS' hopes of winning back Kuala Berang are razor thin.

They are certain that the Umno victory with a majority of 1,695 votes in March can be repeated, perhaps with an even bigger majority because Hulu Terengganu is a traditional Umno stronghold.

In the political history of the state, the Kuala Berang state seat has only fallen into PAS' hands twice - in 1974 and in 1999.

In the last general election, Umno won every one of the 10 voting boxes and the postal votes for Kuala Berang, including that for the PAS stronghold of Kampung Tanggul with a majority of 32 votes (Umno 360/PAS 328). Umno had larger majorities for the other boxes.

With an electorate totalling 11,430 this time compared to 11, 537 for the last general election, Barisan Nasional/Umno are confident that the voting trends will not change.

No major issues

Terengganu Umno leaders are optimistic that the voters will continue to pick the dacing (weighing scales, the BN symbol) because in the last five months, not only was the late Komaruddin Abdul Rahman a hard-working assembly representative, but the state government has also shown its commitment and sincerity to honour its election promises.

The by-election co-ordinator for Kuala Berang, Muhammad Muhd Taib, has stressed that there is no room for the opposition party this time because there are no major issues which can be used as campaigning material.

And his words are the truth. PAS has a dearth of issues. What national interest issues are there to be raised? Islam Hadhari ? That is no longer an issue as it has been well received by the rakyat, including those who vote in Terengganu.

If PAS attempts to make an issue of it again, Umno can easily rebut by using the superb treatment that the PAS spiritual leader Nik Aziz Nik Mat received when he suffered a heart attack to exemplify an aspect of the Islam Hadhari concept. This advocates treating everyone well irrespective of their party and religion, and refers to an Islam which is civilised and cultured.

There have been rumours that PAS' campaign spin doctors will exploit the recent statement by BN chairperson Abdullah Ahmad Badawi about reviewing f atwas (religious decrees) as campaigning material. The initial statement from Abdullah - that he wanted old fatwas to be reviewed in line with modern developments - will be touted as something which is against the teachings of Islam.

However, Terengganu Umno leaders have already prepared a defence against that allegation with concrete points. Furthermore, the clarification by Abdullah, a day after the initial statement had been wrongly reported by the mainstream media, has already defused that issue.

Highway project

PAS is forced to dig up local issues, probing for weaknesses in the Terengganu government. They may raise the land issues related to the East Coast Highway project and the proposed new Teregganu airport in Hulu Terengganu.

The East Coast Highway project is only a small issue as the state government has realigned it nearer to the coast, away from the original route in the interior. The new alignment may disappoint a small number of Hulu Terengganu residents who had hoped that the proximity of the new highway would bring a change of fortunes for them.

The indecisiveness of the state government with regard to the proposed new airport will also be used as campaigning capital to fish for votes. The residents of the districts involved may even use this by-election to push for a decision from Idris.

Even though Umno's path in Kuala Berang looks smooth and easy, they cannot be over-confident. PAS has a history of delivering shocks in Terengganu. Previously, in the era of Wan Mokhtar Wan Ahmad, PAS had surprised with its victory in the by-election for the Teluk Pasu state seat. And this time around, the Islamic party is hoping that history will be repeated.

PAS' main tactic this time may be to go for sympathy votes. Its campaign workers will be going from house to house with the words 'discard the dacing to bring about a credible opposition in the Terengganu assembly'. They will also point out that 'the BN government will not be diminished even if Kuala Berang is given to PAS'.

That argument should be viewed with concern by Umno. If 800 out of the 1,695 voters who had made the difference between Umno and PAS in the last general elections swallow that argument and sympathise with PAS, then a shock may take place in Kuala Berang.

Another matter which Umno should be afraid of is the trend of low voter turnouts for by-elections. The whole nation knows that in the last general election the voter turnout percentage in Terengganu was high - exceeding 80 percent. At that time, a large portion of Terengganu-born voters returned home to vote PAS out.

Local candidate

How will it be this time if those voters do not return home because they feel too confident that Umno will win, or think that the outcome of the Kualal Berang by-election is not that critical a matter anymore?

And do not forget that there may be internal Umno problems which may become the enemies of, and huge obstacles to, the effort to defend the Kuala Berang state seat. Terengganu Umno must effectively contain any feelings of dissatisfaction which had arisen in the choice of nominees (for the September party polls) and in divisional polls last month.

Even though Hulu Terengganu Umno, under the control of Tengku Putera Tengku Awang, appears calm, there has been news that there are many small underlaying matters which needs to be addressed.

Aside from that, the candidate chosen to stand in Kuala Berang will be the deciding factor.

PAS is almost certain to nominate former Hulu Terengganu MP, Muhyiddin Abdul Rashid. The party is confident that the PAS Hulu Terengganu secretary is capable for delivering a shock because he is local-born which other locals are comfortable with.

In the last general election, even though he had been defeated by a majority of 7,760 votes for the Hulu Terengganu parliamentary seat, the number of votes he received in the Kuala Berang constituency was high - Muhyiddin only lost that constituency by 423 votes.

As such, Umno needs to be careful about who they pick to contest against Muhyiddin. An error in the choice of candidate, and there will be a repeat of what happened in the 2000 Bukit Anak Kecil by-election in Kedah.

In conclusion, even though the dacing in Kuala Berang look weighted in favour of Umno on Aug 28, the party still cannot sleep easy. Anything can happen. The Kuala Berang electorate can become berang (indignant/disgrunted), and change their stances at any time!