There aren't that many dates in Malaysian history that are symbolically important. Aug 31, the country's Independence Day, is an exception.

However, Sept 2, 2004 could go down in history as the 'return' of the living dead: On this day, six years ago, Malaysia's then deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, was sacked from Umno, and later imprisoned.

And on the same day last week, the Federal Court of Malaysia overturned Anwar's sodomy conviction by a verdict of 2-1 to restore his freedom.

Since then speculations of his political career have been rife: Would he return to Umno? Would he join PAS? Would he lead Keadilan to re-group the Barisan Alternatif (BA), and pose a challenge to the Barisan Nasional (BN) led by Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi ?

Although the options are varied, there is one undeniable commonality: all converged on a party platform, as if this is the only vehicle that any issues, or reforms, can be pursued with vigour in Malaysia.

' Conscociational democracy'

Political parties have, of course, played a powerful role in the articulation of Malaysia's ethnic interests. Due to the demographic reality of Malaysia, where more than one racial group prevails, political parties have traditionally sought to represent, than channel, the interest of their respective ethnic constituency to the executive.

BN, for instance, is not merely a motley collection of 14 political parties, but the proverbial umbrella to protect the ethnic interests of parties in the peninsular and Borneo as well.

The American political scientist, Arend Liphardt, who performed a study on Malaysia's unique political system in the 1970s, has referred to this power-sharing phenomenon as 'conscociational democracy'.

Under this arrangement, ethnic groups come under the purview of their respective parties. The heads of these parties will then negotiate with Umno as to the kind of concessions expected and desired by that ethnic constituency from the government.

In thinking of the party options available before Anwar, there is the belief that not much has changed over the last six years. With the exception of the general election in 1999, where the opposition, especially PAS, suddenly appeared much stronger, before losing its grip in the March 2004 general election, there has not been any discerning change in the political dynamics of Malaysia.

That Anwar might rejoin Umno need not be ruled out. Here is a man who once said 'To cut a glass you need a diamond.' In other words, to reform Malaysia, or to make it closer to the ideals of Anwar's concept of an Asian Renaissance where human rights, democracy, and accountability all prevail in unblemished form, the support of the government is invariably needed.

In this particular context, Umno is the diamond, as it forms the mainstay of the Malaysian government.

Harnessing civil society

To those who run ahead of Anwar, by specifying the party options he possesses, there is also the (unfortunate) tendency to down play the way Anwar has traditionally built his strength through the civil society.

To begin with, Anwar, contrary to what others may think, is not an impatient man easily given to being seduced by power and plenty, promised by political office.

If anything, Anwar was the first politician and minister, to use Abim, an Islamic NGO, to garner the attention of the powers-that-be. From his student days in mid-1970s to1982, when he eventually joined Umno, Anwar spent nearly a decade refining his vision.

Anwar also practised his own brand of political patronage while in Umno, before his whole scheme unravelled during the Asian financial crisis.

Thus, by assuming that Anwar would only do well with a strong party, there is a corresponding tendency to ignore the extent to which Anwar could build his strength in Malaysian civil society, or even internationally.

The latter is an 'exit-in' strategy that is just as sensible, and strategic if Anwar should want to build his profile internationally, before reconnecting with the Malaysian electorate.

After all, Anwar has a vast international network of friends and supporters, not just in Southeast Asia, but the Middle East and the US, which he could easily revive.

These networks, formed of academics in elite universities and policy analysts in think-tanks, would give Anwar the room to speak; more precisely to refine his vision of an Asian Renaissance, which he has never abandoned.

To be sure, any one type of a 're-entry' strategy would make sense to Anwar over the mid-term, whether this includes rejoining Umno, or working with civil society through the much emaciated Keadilan. Either way, Anwar will get unavoidable attention, whether by local or foreign press.

What Anwar needs to do, with some degree of strategic foresight, is to decide on how to build his support first - a move that would add to his 'value' to all party suitors - or join an organisation that will allow him to canvass even more supporters to add to his future electoral tangibility.

Given his considerable gift of gab, natural charisma, and engaging style of speech, both in Malay and English, it is very likely that Anwar will hit the local and international lecture circuit first, and indeed convince all and sundry that their patience and support over the last six years have not been in vain.

The lure of Umno

Anwar is not likely to rejoin Umno just because of the promise and perks of power, knowing that they are too illusionary at best, and distracting at worst.

What Anwar could do, which has never been attempted before, is to build a power structure - formed of opposition parties and civil society - to shadow the government's every move in a respectful yet accountable manner, without going so far as to be offensive to Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

Hence, the issue is not whether Umno will trust Anwar or not. Indeed, permitting him to rejoin is perhaps the easiest thing yet, as Anwar has never renounced his membership.

Rather, as the euphoria over his release dies down, indeed as Anwar progressively builds his strength in civil society and internationally, it will be the opposition questioning the integrity and strategy of Anwar.

Will he abandon them, as he once did in 1982, to rejoin the government? Of course, Anwar will reassure them that he would not do such a thing.

But the issue is, how can the opposition trust Anwar fully when this is a person who is constantly seeking to be the 'Lord of the Diamond', to complete his mission of Asian Renaissance ?

Therein lies the opposition's conundrum. How do they recruit and retain him? Doing the former is easy, but to keep Anwar, a man always brimming with ideas and strategic flexibility, the issue of retention is a difficult one, as the opposition has traditionally been very orthodox about how it can work with the government.

Anwar, on the other hand, cannot build an opposition that is so strong it poses a challenge to Umno and BN almost immediately. To do so would be to burn his bridges back to them, again an option Anwar wants to keep open. And the opposition, once again, cannot help but suspect the worst in Anwar to jump ship at some point.


PHAR KIM BENG is author of the Eye Eye You column in malaysiakini . He graduated from the International Islamic University in 1994 as a Muslim revert, having previously been a Buddhist. He has travelled around the world studying at the University of Notre Dame, where he understood the beauty of Catholic scholarship, the University of Cambridge, where he learned the importance of British education, and later the University of Tokyo, where he learned his survival Japanese.