Whenever local politics was discussed during the recent Hari Raya open house hosted by politicians in Kuching, it invariably turned to the subject of what has become known as the five partyless elected representatives of the defunct Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak (PBDS).

The oft-asked question was, and still is, would Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud's Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu (PBB) take them all in (as the five want to, after their own party PBDS was de-registered for the second time on Oct 21).

Immediately after the death knell was sounded on the Dayak-based party, nine of the party's 14 elected representatives 'managed' to find a new home in a new party called Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS).

But their rivals, the five elected representatives aligned to the party's former president Daniel Tajem, did not have a new party of their own to turn to nor did they intend to form one. So, it was only natural their erstwhile faction leader Dr James Masing beckoned them to join PRS as well.

The five did not even bother to respond to Masing's invitation, with the silence taken to mean they were not interested at all.

A national Malay daily later quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Joseph Salang Gandum, one of two MPs still without a party, as saying they were "not keen to join any party smaller than PBDS."

The state Barisan Nasional supreme council, however, tried to nudge them to join PRS, as a first option they must consider. If they did not want to consider that option, according to Taib, the state BN chairperson, then they could consider other parties PBB, Sarawak United People's Party (Supp) and Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party (SPDP) but with the proviso that there must be prior consultation among these parties for an agreement.

The five jumped at the opportunity and said they wanted to join PBB.

Making PBB too big

This must have taken many, including those in PBB, by surprise. They had anticipated the five would opt first for Supp or SPDP or split equally between the two.

If you ask the rather outspoken PBB MP for Santubong Wan Junaidi Tuanku Jaafar whether the five would all be accepted into his party, he would tell you that Taib's view is that he (Taib) is not exactly keen to enlarge PBB to the stage where it could form the government without the other parties.

PBB already controls 30 of the 62 seats in the state legislative assembly, and among the partyless five are two state assemblypersons. This means that taking in the two state representatives would give PBB at once a simple majority in the House - a picture that was never considered at all in the 1980s, given the strength of the Sarawak National Party (Snap) then and later PBDS after it broke from the state BN to form the Maju group in the infamous Ming Court revolt against Taib in 1987.

But several political analysts have also asked: Does Umno mind if it does not command a simple majority in Parliament and in state legislative assemblies? After all, Umno is the backbone of the governing coalition at federal and state levels, except for Kelantan and Sarawak and possibly Sabah. But in the rare cases where it does not command a simple majority, Umno is the dominant party.

It is probably more urgent to consider the case of two partyless reps in the state assembly - Belaga state assemblyperson Stanley Ajang and Ngemah state assemblyperson Gabriel Adit - as state elections could be held a year earlier in 2005 instead of 2006.

50-50 chance

The other three partyless reps - Salang, Kanowit MP Aaron Dagang and Lubok Antu MP Jewah Gerang - can, in fact, wait to join any party, for the next parliamentary elections are not due till 2009 at the earliest.

Wan Junaidi described the chances of PBB taking in the five en bloc as 50:50.

There are others who are even more pessimistic, saying Deputy Chief Minister and PBB deputy president Alfred Jabu had probably reflected the top party leadership's views on the matter when he reiterated Taib's recent statement that the five should consider joining PRS as a first option.

But unlike Taib who has allowed other options, including joining the other parties in BN, on the other hand Jabu, who has often taken the stance that he speaks for the Dayak community, said joining PRS would give the lie to the claim that PBDS' demise was the doing of PBB in order to benefit from it.

"The last thing the chief minister wants to show is that the other BN parties are only interested in the spoils of (political) war," one of his aides told malaysiakini.

Minister of Housing and the other PBB deputy president Abang Johari Openg, when asked during his Hari Raya open house whether the door was open for the five to join PBB, pointed to the big crowd at his house saying: "I'm holding an open house!"

Like many of his party colleagues, he remained evasive to queries on whether PBB would eventually take the five in or whether the party would only pick a few with the rest either joining Supp or SPDP or both or even PRS.

Like many others, he preferred to keep his views to himself.

There had been a series of behind-the-scene discussions and consultations among a number of senior state BN leaders about what to do with the five soon after Home Minister Azmi Khalid announced the de-registration of PBDS.

Three scenarios

Supp was interested, SPDP was interested but PBB was and is still cautious. Although some of its leaders, including Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Joseph Entulu, had called on party leaders and members to take the five in without question into PRS, for the sake of Dayak unity, only a few believed that was and is possible.

Adit asked: How could that happen when even Azmi Khalid had said the very reason PBDS had to be struck off from registration was that leaders of the two factions had shown they could never compromise, much less work together?

Otherwise, to use that reasoning, there would have been no necessity to de-register PBDS again, he said.

According to most political observers, three likely scenarios are possible: One, according to Ajang, an optimist, any obstacles can be overcome and the five will eventually be admitted into PBB.

Second, in order to allay suspicions of its intentions, PBB will probably take two or at the most three - two assemblypersons and one MP (Aaron Dagang), one MP (Jawah Gerang) will go to Supp and the remaining MP Salang to SPDP.

Third, PBB will take two (one state assemblyperson Ajang, an Orang Ulu) and one MP (Aaron Dagang), Supp, SPDP and PRS one each. This scenario is considered the most likely, as it does not 'disturb' the political equilibrium.

"PBB probably prefers to let the other parties accommodate the Iban reps, while indications are that it feels it should look after the Orang Ulu," according to observers.

In this third scenario everyone gains without any detriment to anyone.

TONY THIEN is malaysiakini's Sarawak-based stringer.