Umno recently celebrated its 70-year anniversary with the president urging unity among party members. At an anniversary dinner on Thursday night, the party president said Umno’s strength was its unity, as reflected in its name - ‘United Malays National Organisation’.

He also swore he would never betray or abandon the party, even if he were to have “misunderstandings” with his successor someday. This was a not so subtle jab to Umno’s strongman, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who left the party about a month ago due to Najib Abdul Razak’s administration.

For a president who urges unity, he is the very same president who is embroiled in a global corruption scandal which investigations have extended to more than nine sovereign countries. This is the very same president who sacked the deputy president of the party and stripped the cabinet position off one of the party’s vice-presidents. This is the very same president who once said that loyalty to him is more important than one’s intellect.

It is therefore unsurprising that Umno is exceptionally fractured due to the ongoing trust deficit within and outside the party. We see the likes of Muhyiddin Yassin, Shafie Apdal, Mukhriz Mahathir and many more leading the charge against the allegedly corrupt president of the party.

They’re backed up by a considerable portion of the Umno grassroots known as Gerakan Ketua Cawangan Malaysia (GKCM), which comprises of hundreds if not thousands of branch heads of the party, also known as the party machinery.

They’re the ones who do the groundwork for Umno. This is evidenced by the thousands of people who would swarm the rallies and talks conducted by GKCM. The group also played a proactive role in securing the more than 1 million petitions under the Save Malaysia platform.

In about one month’s time, their loyalty and conscience will truly be tested. The Election Commission (EC) chairperson announced today that the by-elections in Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar will be held simultaneously on June 18. These two seats were previously held by Umno-BN. The outcome of these two by-elections will be a litmus test to Najib’s administration.

“This will be an actual test of Najib’s popularity,” said Wan Saiful Wan Jan, political analyst and chief executive of think-tank Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (Ideas). The Sarawak election wasn’t representative of Najib’s popularity as it focused on CM Adenan Satem’s popularity and localised issues which often do not overlap with federal issues. Most pertinently, Umno is a non-existent entity in Sarawak.

If these two seats go to the opposition, it will send a clear message to Umno that the people are dissatisfied with the ongoing administration. This will most likely lead to Najib stepping down due to the impending internal pressure. We saw this with the internal push to demand that Abdullah Ahmad Badawi step down in 2009 due to his unpopularity with the rakyat.

However, if the two seats remain with Umno, Najib will use this new mandate as prove that the rakyat couldn’t care less about the 1MDB ‘Titanic’ which has struck the nation. He will the use his powers to permanently rid Umno of its dissenting voices.

With that calculation in mind, what would the so-called ‘Umno B’ do during the by-elections? What is their stance? Will they blindly support whoever the party fields despite knowing that their victory will lead to their own demise? Or will they campaign against their two party candidates?

Preferring to boycott the election

Rumours state that a lot of them will not campaign for, nor against the party candidates. They would prefer to boycott the election. This is very similar to what’s taking place in the US presidential race.

We are seeing a lot of the Republican big guns promising to boycott Donald Trump despite him winning the republican presidential ticket. The likes of Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney and even the House speaker Paul Ryan have expressed their dissatisfaction with Donald Trump. The same phenomenon can take place in Malaysia, especially when the party is helmed by a president who is imprisoned in a multitude of scandals.

The moral conscience of the Umno dissenters will be tested. Do they love their country more than their party? Do they believe that Najib encapsulates the true aspirations of the party?

The answers to these questions will heavily influence the outcome of the by-elections. In Kuala Kangsar, Umno only won with a 1,082 majority. In Sungai Besar it was much closer (399 majority). This means, in an event where the traditional Umno votes are reduced, Umno stands to lose the by elections.

Even if these dissenters don’t vote for the opposition, a mere boycotting of the election would do enough damage to Umno. We saw the opposition suffering in Sarawak due to low voter turnout and thousands of spoilt votes purportedly made to punish the opposition parties. The same can happen in the two upcoming by-elections.

Even if there’s a three-way battle, a reduction in votes for Umno will do it enough harm. It will still send a strong message to the administration that they’ve lost the support of their trusted voters and party members.

Loyalty is not and should never be monopolised by one person. Loyalty should be democratised, not monopolised. Umno members will soon be confronted with an inconvenient scenario of either blindly supporting the party while buttressing the authority of its embattled president, or to temporarily disobey its president for the party’s and nation’s long-term good.

The two by-elections will show whether Najib is truly invincible in Umno and national politics.

The two by-elections will determine the moral compass of Umno members.

Most importantly, the two by-elections will judge Najib’s fate and the future of our country.

Choose wisely.

SYED SADDIQ SYED ABDUL RAHMAN is a part-time lecturer at Universiti Islam Antarabangsa (UIA) Malaysia and is Asia’s best debater, winning the United Asia Debate Championship in May 2015.