As MCA heavyweights Chua Jui Meng and Dr Ting Chew Peh prepare to challenge the top posts in the upcoming party elections, political analysts are reading the tea leaves that have been left steeping in a long-running internal conflict.

Chua declared his intention to challenge president Ong Ka Ting at a press conference last Friday while Ting is expected to announce a bid this week for the deputy president's post now held by Chan Kong Choy.

Political observer Ding Lee Leong told malaysiakini that their moves mean that Ka Ting has failed in his task to unite MCA after having been at its head for more than two years.

"Although Ka Ting has claimed that MCA has been successfully reunited, it is just a cosmetic gesture...everybody seems to be nice with one another but the actual fight has gone underground."

Analyst Phoon Wing Keong, who follows MCA politics closely, also questioned this.

"Has MCA ever achieved any success in its reunification? The best that Ka Ting has done is to include Chan's followers and his Pahang forces in the rank and file. Chua and (now suspended Wanita deputy chief) Tan Yee Kew have also been pushed out of the mainstream."

He pointed out that, while the Pahang MCA may not have much resources at its disposal, it has been able to control key positions. It could win important posts such as that of deputy president, vice-president, women's chief and possibly the youth chief during the elections.

Pahang's continuing monopoly looks likely to create dissatisfaction among other local forces.

Party splintered

There are strong rumours that Chua will form an alliance with Ting and Perlis MCA liaison chairperson Chor Chee Heung, who command strong support in the north.

However, Ding thinks that there is little possibility of an electorate pact being formed.

"This is because the conflict between Team A and Team B of the past has remained quick intense, especially among the grassroots that are situated far from the centre of power."

Significantly Chua represents the B2 team which has generally felt betrayed by Chan. Although Ting belongs to the A2 team, the old guard that used to be Ling's lieutenants have been slowly marginalised by Ka Ting after he took over the presidency.

Phoon said the only things left over from the Team A-B protracted fight are the sour relationships that developed during the struggle for power over the years.

"MCA factions are loose groups without a solid base. They also cannot be differentiated along the lines of political agenda or ideology. Every time there are fresh party elections, the factions will regroup and split up. The A-B team has split into four groups: A1 A2 B1 and B2," he said.

"Those leaders who were not promoted after the last elections included Ting, Chor, Ong Tee Keat, Yeow Chai Thiam and Yap Pian Hon. They have had to contest this year for their political survival."

Phoon also said that Ling has crossed swords with Ka Ting in Perak.

"Ling is widely believed to have struck a deal with Ka Ting to maintain his influence by becoming the chairperson of the Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman council. In return, he was not to interfere in MCA after retiring.

"However. after sensing that his influence has been subsiding, Ling decided to push his two sons to contest for the Youth leadership in order to safeguard the family's interests."

Ling's eldest son Hee Leong won the Kuala Kangsar division Youth chief's post uncontested recently and then expressed interest in standing for Perak Youth chief. But Ka Ting's elder brother Ka Chuan decided to support incumbent Tan Chin Meng who then won uncontested.

As a result Hee Liong has had to take up the lower post of a vice-chief. Obviously the Ongs have started to check Hee Leong's influence at state level.

Revisiting controversies

Ding said he believed the elections will be a "test" of the current leaders who were offered their posts under the 2003 peace accord initiated under then Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

"Although Ka Ting and Chan have tried their best to prevent challenges and a heated election, many will welcome the contests for the post of president and deputy president as the pubic still perceives that the leadership under the duo as an untested one."

Ding elaborated that the real reason why the contest is so heated this time is that everyone wants to finally resolve the factional conflict that began taking shape in 1999.

"This is a battle that has been delayed for a long time," noted Ding.

Phoon said competitive elections would benefit the party.

"Obviously, the so-called 'cosmetic peace' brought forward by a peace agreement is very fragile. Things still have to be settled by power politics and the principle of strength...this is why you will see a naked power struggle during the elections.

"Is this bad for MCA? For the past four or five years, MCA has been avoiding tackling internal controversies and many problems regarding the Chinese society such as the controversial takeover of Nanyang Press Holding (in May 2001) and issues of triad infiltration, money politics and phantom members.

"If there are no party elections, these issues will remain in cold storage. If the challengers can raised these issues seriously, it will be good for the party."

The MCA elections will be held on Aug 20.

YONG KAI PING is the editor of malaysiakini 's Chinese version.