In the first place, talk of a possible merger between Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party (SPDP) and Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) did not come from within - it came from an external source.

That being so, it is indeed encouraging to know that leaders of the two parties had publicly discussed the option and would consent to the move "if it is something good for the Dayak community".

But whether SPDP president William Mawan (right) and PRS president Dr James Masing genuinely believe it can happen or will work is a totally different matter.

The merger talk all started two months ago, when a top Sarawak BN leader suggested the two parties come together since they shared the same origins in the Sarawak National Party (Snap), a multi-racial but essentially Dayak-based with grassroots support among the Dayaks.

SPDP itself was formed after Snap was de-registered three years ago (Snap has gone to court to appeal against de-registration and has meantime been granted stay of execution) while PRS was also formed under similar circumstances, after the Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak (PBDS) was de-registered last year for the second and final time.

Chance for promotion?

But no sooner had PRS leaders settled down nicely to a new home after being formally admitted into the BN came the proposal which their top leaders have little choice but to look into for the parties to unite.

As recent as three weeks ago, the same BN leader queried Mawan and Masing as to the progress of such a move, all well outside the ear-shots of the hitherto so-called Dayak leader in the government Alfred Jabu (left), who is one of two deputy chief ministers and Chief Minister Taib Mahmud's Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) deputy president for the Pesaka wing.

It is difficult to see how Jabu can continue to claim to be the de facto Dayak leader in the state if and when the total number of Dayak elected leaders represented by PBB is going to be less than the total number under a SPDP-PRS merger.

This will mean that either Mawan and Masing (right) who are state ministers can claim for promotion as deputy chief minister, which means Jabu may have to make an exit from politics altogether.

The talk is that when Sarawak United People's Party (Supp) president Dr George Chan, who is well into his sixties, eventually steps downs as deputy chief minister, Jabu too will step down. And Jabu, it is said, has proposed that a senior Dayak leader in PBB Douglas Uggah, presently the deputy minister of transport, should take over from him. Chan has not indicated who he wants to take over from him.

Whether this can or will happen after the next state elections, or much later, is a subject of much speculation, however. It is thought of a strong possibility that at some point of time, possibly two years hence, Taib would have finally made his choice on who should succeed him as PBB president and chief minister.

Effendi in the running again

According to current thinking of most political analysts, Taib's eventual successor is unlikely to be either PBB deputy president and state Housing Minister Abang Johari Tun Openg or PBB senior vice-president and federal Natural Resources and Environment Minister Adenan Satem.

Recently, there has been talk that PBB vice-president and former agriculture minister the charismatic Effendi Norwawi (left) may well be the one, to take over from Taib, and if this were to happen only Taib would know the reasons for it.

Effendi's close aides malaysiakini spoke to are very confident that their boss has never been out of contention in spite of his reported personal problems.

"He is just taking a short rest," was how one of his closest aides said. Effendi attended the recent PBB supreme council meeting and had been assigned a task to help with the forthcoming PBB seminar on the Ninth Malaysia Plan.

But where does the SPDP-PRS merger proposal come in?

There has been talk, which has never been denied, that the merger proposal between the two parties has both short and long term objectives.

The first is to bring the Dayaks, especially the Ibans together under one political wing which means that while the new merged entity retains its multi-racial platform but because it represents Dayak or Iban elected representatives, the few non Dayaks in the parties will no longer have any major say in the running of the party, if they have not decided to quit too in disgust.

This, so it is argued, will be the best way to counter the reported rising support in the Iban countryside for the yet-to-be-registered Malaysian Dayak Congress (MDC) led by Sarawak Dayak National Union (SDNU) president Nicholas Bawing. Reports have reached the ears of SPDP and PRS leaders as well as other Dayak leaders in the State BN and even Taib himself that many Dayaks in several parts of the state are quickly warming up to MDC during the visits of their leaders.

Dayak unity a myth

Detractors have even accused some Dayak leaders in the BN of being secretly behind MDC, and one of them told malaysiakini they are never involved, saying this could be the result of some top state BN leaders of being afraid of their own shadows and merely shooting in the dark.

One Dayak veteran leader who did not want to be identified told malaysiakini Dayak unity is a myth and talk that the merger is good for Dayak unity is merely an excuse possibly for Taib to ensure that he can rope in SPDP and PRS leaders together with PBB for the days when he wants Umno to come to Sarawak.

"But unlike in Sabah, if Umno do eventually come in to replace PBB, it will be on Sarawak's own terms, and Taib knows what he has to do to perpetuate his local power base through his group," one political analyst said.

"There is too much at stake. With so much power in his hand he can do virtually everything he wants,"

Both Mawan and Masing are now pushed into a corner into doing something they genuinely believe should not be forced to happen as far as the merger issue is concerned.

But at the same time they are fully aware that without Taib, they will not be where they are today, as leaders of the two parties. Can they afford to play a delaying game hoping the idea will fizzle out and be forgotten?

Non-Dayak leaders

Meantime, there are detractors who are likely to thwart such a move which could lead to their dissipation - the non-Dayak leaders who wield considerable influence in the two parties.

PRS deputy president Sng Chee Chua, who has told friends he controls more than 50 per cent of the party's branches, was reported in the Sunday Tribune as saying that such a move cannot take place without sacrifices being made, and that one main issue to be considered is who is going to be the captain and that this is not going to be an easy matter.

SPDP treasurer Tiong King Sing, the Bintulu MP, is even more direct. He was quoted as saying that the party's supreme council members did not have any idea at all about such a move, and during an interview with a national paper made it clear he is against the idea of a merger.

Both Sng, a former BN elected representative, and Tiong are said to have been kept out of the discussions on the intimate details of the merger proposal, but they are not without supporters themselves within the two parties.

Most political analysts believe there will be a lot of obstacles to overcome before such a merger can become a reality.

TONY THIEN is malaysiakini 's Sarawak-based stringer.