The current political talk in Sarawak is no longer on the date of the impending state election (which has to be before November this year) but who will lead the Sarawak Barisan Nasional into the polls.

Will it be Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud or another leader?

Following recent developments, particularly the resignations of Taib's most trusted lieutenant, Adenan Satem, as natural resources and environment minister and Taib's PBB vice-president Leo Michael Toyad as tourism minister from the federal cabinet, Taib's plans for himself and his party are becoming clearer now.

Although it has already been known that Adenan, the PBB senior vice-president has always been seen as Taib's favourite to take over eventually as chief minister, there have been other contenders, notably PBB deputy president Abang Johari Tun Openg and vice president Effendi Norwawi (right) who has now rejoined the federal cabinet.

In fact, the three - Johari, Adenan and Effendi - were mentioned by Taib six years ago as party leaders he was grooming as possible successors to him.

Unknown to many, over the years, the competition among the three has been intense, even though for a while Effendi fizzled out of the scene and appeared to be no longer in the running. His coming back to Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's cabinet this week seems to indicate he is still very much in the running.

Effendi has the corporate experience, business acumen and is politically savvy and has an excellent PR and has put behind many of the personal problems, including his previous marriage to Faridah, behind him. He has been invigorated and energised, according to a close associate.

The first inkling that Taib would soon set in motion his plans for succession came after news of him undergoing medical surgery for a colon problem.

Adenan performs CM's duties

Although close associates say he was irked by reports that he may go on long medical leave to recuperate from the operation in Singapore, it is very clear that he has started to pass on many of his responsibilities like attending public functions and meeting party leaders from other component parties to Adenan in recent months.

One very important function which Adenan officiated on behalf of the Chief Minister was an important state religious function in Sarikei

recently.

It was also Adenan that leaders of the two Dayak-based parties Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party (SPDP) and Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) and Deputy Foreign Minister Joseph Salang went to see and finally agreed on the framework of co-operation to lead to a merger.

Both the prime minister and Adenan have confirmed that Abdullah's visit last weekend to see Taib at his residence in Kuching was not purely to enquire on his health. It indicated the closeness of the personal ties between Abdullah, who once served as a civil servant, under Taib when he was a federal minister.

They talked about Adenan, Effendi and Leo Michael Toyad ahead of the impending cabinet reshuffle, and more.

A successful Malay businessman Amin Satem, elder brother of Adenan Satem, told malaysiakini yesterday morning that Adenan had resigned from the cabinet and would be rejoining the state cabinet.

"It was agreed two years ago that his posting to Kuala Lumpur would only be temporary," Amin said.

State DAP chairperson Wong Ho Leng told malaysiakini that he believed two major factors stand in the way of a March state election - Taib's health and the proposed SPDP-PRS merger is still unclear.

Wong believes the state election will be held after June this year.

Poor health slows Taib down

Because of his health, Taib is expected to slow down his working pace and travelling and leave much of it to his party colleagues, including Adenan, Johari and (state Second Resource Planning and Management Minister) Awang Tengah Ali Hasan.

While Taib will always be around to give direction and advice, it is expected that Adenan will be calling most of the shots, with a group of close advisers around him, especially Awang Tengah.

A staff member of the Sarawak Foundation told malaysiakini that they are preparing a office for Adenan who is the chairperson of the important state-owned body.

In the words of the prime minister, Adenan had requested to go so that he could concentrate full time in Sarawak to prepare for the elections.

Meanwhile, Johari and his own supporters are moving quietly throughout the state, as they anticipate PBB's own party elections may be held in May.

If there is no agreement to close ranks, there could be yet another battle royale like in the year 2000 when Johari defeated Adenan by quite a respectable margin for the post of deputy president for the Bumiputera wing.

According to many political observers, even with the backing he now gets, there is no clear cut sign that Adenan will win hands down. Johari (right), son of Sarawak's first post-Independence governor Tun Abang Haji Openg , has his own supporters and is a shrewd politician.'

But a bruised party will be in danger come the elections, and, say the same observers, Taib will want to avert that.

One speculation is that Adenan will give up his 65%-Malay majority Batang Sadong parliamentary seat to allow Johari to contest and Johari will be appointed to the federal cabinet to take up the slot left vacant with the resignation of Leo Michael Toyad. Johari is currently the state assemblyperson for Satok in the heart of Kuching Malay heartland.

Supporters who can see the signs have urged Johari to take up such an offer if it is made. "He will accept," said a close friend.

Johari moving to KL?

Johari has indicated he is not prepared to serve in a state cabinet under Adenan. Moving to KL or to an overseas post like an envoy is the alternative. The talk is that Johari has been Abdullah's preferred candidate to take over as chief minister. But this may have changed with the recent events and developments.

PBB which has the lion's share of the 71 state seats this coming elections is not seen in any serious imminent danger. At least 27 of the seats are either predominantly or majority Malay or Melanau or a mix of both. The rest are Dayak seats under its Dayak (Iban/Bidayuh/Orang Ulu) wing.

This is seen as a result of largely weak Malay-based opposition group. Danger is seen as coming from the Dayak-based opposition, especially from the yet-to-be-registered Malaysian Dayak Congress (MDC) whose de facto leader is former Deputy Chief Minister Daniel Tajem. Its pro tem president is Nicholas Bawin, president of the Sarawak Dayak National Union.

But it is possible that the Dayak-based opposition that includes the Sarawak National Party and a loose partner of former state Assistant Minister Dr Patau Rubis-led (left) State Reform Party (Star) may win a number of seats in Dayak areas, especially Iban areas in Sri Aman.

The rest of the BN seat allocation is to Chinese-based Sarawak United People's Party ( 19), PRS (9) and SPDP (8).

Sarawak Election Commission officials, meanwhile, have indicated that they will be ready for electios by March, a date which many observers and even some politicians admit is possible. But it is generally believed now to be between June and November.

TONY THIEN is malaysiakini's Sarawak-based stringer.