ISLAMABAD (AFP) - The sudden rush of concern surrounding the security of Pakistan's nuclear assets and their possible use by Islamic extremists has little grounding in the realms of possibility, analysts say.

The concerns are largely founded on the prospect of severe instability in Pakistan, where there are pockets of radical opposition to President Prevez Musharraf's support for the US-led bombing campaign in neighbouring Afghanistan.

"In the extreme case - should extremists take over the Pakistani government - control over Pakistan's nuclear explosive materials and weapons could be lost irretrievably," warned the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS).

"Fighting the war on terrorism starts with ensuring the stability of a nuclear-armed Pakistan," said ISIS president David Albright. "Otherwise the terrorist threat will take on a new, frightening dimension."

However, the scenario of an "extremist" takeover in Pakistan is in itself extremely hypothetical.

Many Pakistanis feel deeply disturbed by the bombardment of Afghanistan and the reports of civilian casualties, but an equally large number accept that Musharraf had little choice but to side with the United States.

Minor protests

Public protests denouncing the president have been relatively small-scale by Pakistani standards and organised by radical Islamic groups who represent a vocal but small minority with no hope of taking political control.

The bombing was launched a month ago after Afghanistan's Taliban regime refused to hand over suspected terrorist Osama bin Laden, blamed for the September attacks on the United States that killed thousands of people.

The army has always been the key to power in Pakistan and for the moment the military establishment is backing General Musharraf.

And even if his fellow generals were to turn against the president, analysts say there is nothing to suggest that nuclear weapons or materials would find their way into the hands of extremist elements.

"It is accurate to say that there are a number of individuals within the establishment, both civilian and military, who are sympathetic to the Taliban," said defence analyst Moahammad Afzal Niazi.

"But whether this could ever translate into the sort of action being proposed in these 'doomsday scenarios' is at best extremely doubtful.

"It is one thing to protest there is not enough evidence to bomb bin Laden, but quite another to hand over the nuclear keys to (Bin Laden's network) al-Qaeda."

Nuclear club

Pakistan entered the nuclear club in May 1998 with a series of underground tests carried out in response to similar tests by arch-rival India.

According to various independent assessments, Pakistan at the end of 1999 possessed enough plutonium and weapon-grade highly-enriched uranium for between 30 and 50 nuclear warheads.

Pakistan's nuclear weapons are believed to be stored with their fissile cores separated from the non-nuclear components.

Islamabad has reacted with increasing annoyance to repeated questions being raised over how secure those nuclear assets are.

"These thoughts are with those who do not understand the reality inside Pakistan," said Musharraf in a recent interview.

"There is an excellent command and control system in place that we have evolved and there is no question of their falling into the hands of any fundamentalist."

Last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) called on all the world's nuclear powers to urgently review the safety of nuclear material in their arsenals.

Referring to Pakistan specifically, IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei said there was no reason to doubt the nuclear safeguards in place.

"Security is good as long as there is a government in control," ElBaradei said.

And even if terrorists somehow managed to get their hands on Pakistani nuclear hardware, ElBaradei said they would not necessarily be able to use it.

"There are safety measures with weapons to be activated in case of theft and I'm sure the Pakistani program is no different."

Ironclad security

Pakistan Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar recently listed "ironclad" security measures protecting the country's nuclear assets, stressing that their safe custody in storage was ensured by dedicated formations of specially equipped forces.

Sattar also cited the creation last year of a Strategic Plans Division under the direct command of the Pakistan Joint Chiefs of Staff which had developed procedures to ensure custodial security and command control.

"Any apprehension that the assets might fall into the hands of extremists is entirely imaginary - a product partly of distortion caused by TV images magnifying the sights and sounds of protesters," he said.

Washington has pronounced itself satisfied with Pakistan's nuclear security, although during his recent visit here, US Secretary of State Colin Powell invited Pakistani officials to see how nuclear safety was ensured in the United States - an offer the government has yet to respond too.