The Hulu Selangor parliamentary constituency has a total electorate of 64,500 - it’s a 50-50 composition between male and female. There are 34,020 (52.7%) Malay, 16,964 (26.3%) Chinese and 12,453 (19.3%) Indian voters.

In this particular scenario, ethnic Malay is the majority followed by ethnic Chinese and Indians. The odd is still against the MIC candidate - looking into the ethnic Malay from PKR in the name of Zaid Ibrahim who is going to contest the seat. Zaid Ibrahim, even though not a local boy but has gained political prominence at the national level and his name is on the lips of most of the electorate in Hulu Selangor. His opponent is literally a new face and not many voters are familiar with him.

The prediction by many is that the Chinese and Indian votes will tilt towards Pakatan Rakyat. Also, the Malay votes will tilt towards Pakatan Rakyat.

Desperate camps are going too ‘personal’ now to win over the electorate. Personal attacks have become the mode of campaigning and less is talked on social and economic issues. Personal attacks of this nature are not going to help BN win the seat. It will backfire. The path that led to the naming of candidates for this by-election, too, was equally exciting.

However, in a by-election, there can be many permutations to determine a win for a candidate - location, race factor, national and local issues, the economy and the electorate, among others.

At least, Barisan Nasional and particularly Umno should have honoured the BN coalition spirit and listened to the demand of a component party – no matter how insignificant the party may be. What Barisan Nasional or Umno, for that matter, has done to sideline G Palanivel has further doomed the chance for Barisan Nasional to win the seat. It has slighted the hearts of many Indian voters in this constituency. Not only are the Indians upset, many Malays and Chinese who are familiar with Palanivel are equally disappointed by this move.

Then the buzz was that Umno wanted a Malay candidate to contest and some were campaigning for Muhammad Muhammad Taib – a former heavyweight - to go for the seat. However, the hum was that a high-level Umno member at the cabinet level was not in favour of him, also including a former Umno top man in Selangor. Muhammad is still perceived as a threat to many Umno hopefuls as he is still popular among the electorate in Selangor.

Pitting Mohd Taib against Zaid Ibrahim would see a clash of the influential as opposed to a Zaid Ibrahim versus P Kamalanathan tussle. In the latter situation, Zaid Ibrahim is predicted by many to win the by-election with hands down, as Kamalanathan – quite a new face in the political ring is almost an ‘alien’ to the electorate in Hulu Langat. He is not even ‘politically recognisable’ by most Indians here, let alone for the people to hail him as a capable warrior in this political ring.

Kamalanathan may not get the full support of the Indians, as he is a novice in this constituency. The majority of the Malay and Chinese votes are predicted to favour Zaid Inrahim. The people seemingly are acquainted with Zaid Ibrahim more and Kamalanathan less. The discernment here is, with Zaid Ibrahim in Parliament, it will be another voice for the opposition and it will also boost the image of Pakatan Rakyat.

Many MIC division leaders and supporters in Hulu Selangor are still adamant that Palanivel should have been given another chance. However, there are some who have endorsed V Mugilan or Kamalanathan but even this move is not significant enough to take on Zaid Ibrahim – the heavyweight. The ‘scuffle’ in choosing the right candidate from MIC to represent Barisan Nasional has affected BN’s chance of regaining the seat from Pakatan Rakyat.

Despite all the juggling of candidates by MIC and with the interference from others, the people on the street still feel that Palanivel was their best bet to contest the Hulu Selangor parliamentary seat although he would possibly not clinch a victory against Zaid Ibrahim – a personality that the electorate need no introduction to.

With all this political drama unfolded, the odds now are against Barisan Nasional and many believe that Zaid Ibrahim will clinch a victory in this political bout against a ‘lightweight’ opponent with ease.