There is very strong indication by Umno Sabah that the state election will be held sometime after Sept 16, 2003. The Sabah state assembly is expected to be dissolved soon.

In the last months of Chief Minister Chong Kah Kiat's term, election commission chairperson Abdul Rashid Abdul Rahman suggested that the Sabah state election be held together with the general election to save cost. Chong stated that the leaders of the BN component parties in Sabah were not in agreement of such a thing, as they needed the full and undivided support of BN parties from the peninsular.

Since then it was assumed that this was the case until Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad's visit to Sabah where current Chief Minister Musa Aman proposed to the PM that it is prime time for BN Sabah to call for state elections. Dr Mahathir agreed to the proposal and stated that he would bring the matter to our future premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

Why this move by Sabah BN? In military terms, this is the classic case of a 'quick attack'. Not to be mistaken as wanting to have quick elections, but it is rather a go for the attack as soon as one notices the chink in the armour of the enemy, which one intends to take full advantage of.

For BN Sabah, this course of action over the more traditional 'deliberate attack' is of course the preferred choice, if not the obvious, as the window for the element of surprise is coming to a close - and the final dates for the election in any case shall be no later than April 2004.

Also, there is the traditional fear that the Sabah state government, after a cycle of two terms, will undergo a change enforced by Sabah electorates as what befell Usno, Berjaya, and PBS! The fear among Umno Sabah in particular is very real if it is to be pitted against a united opposition of parties, in particular Sabah-based parties.

A sizeable, if not the majority, of silent electorates in Sabah now are discontented in the manner the BN and particularly Umno is ruling the state. They seem to keep all the spoils to themselves rather than share it out equitably as preached.

Further Umno Sabah is not only being taunted as " Parti orang Malaya " (Malayan people's party) but worse still " Parti orang Melayu Malaya " (Malayan Malays party), which after 40 years is still not more acceptable to Sabahans.

To add to this rather difficult issue, members of BN component parties are jostling for seat allocation. When PBS got wind that Umno would be fielding candidates in more than 30 seats, it was heard to pass comments like: "Elok Umno telan semua" (better for Umno to swallow them all).

BN and Umno cannot afford this kind of bickering. How is Umno going to appease the many Kadazandusun-based parties in its alliance? In order to nip discontentment from being further fuelled, it is in Umno's interest to call for a snap election.

Keadilan, PAS and DAP it is learnt, are formulating some kind of electoral pact. Indeed, these are all peninsular-based parties too. In any case the story does not end there.

Little has been heard of Pertubuhan Kebangsaan Rakyat Sabah Bersatu aka Bersatu after having submitted its political party registration two years ago. It is believed that former finance minister Daim Zainuddin, former MAS tycoon Tajuddin Ramli and a former disgruntled Chinese MP from Sarawak (who failed to obtain further timber concession from the state) may be backing this party.

The reason is timber. While many are of the opinion that Sabah is barren of timber land, this is only partially true. Sabah still has million of acres that are gazetted as forest reserve. Independent of this, Yayasan Sabah has also in its fold millions of acres of timber land.

Alas, who knows about timber operations better than Chief Minister Musa - if only one cares to trace back his portfolios. Wasn't Musa the first and all supreme director of Yayasan Sabah since Umno took over Sabah! Of course, not to be forgotten, his trusted Minister of Agricultue and Fisheries and Umno information chief Rahim Ismail was a senior staff of the Sabah Forestry Department before he joined Usno and later Umno.

Bersatu at first glance seems to be dressed by a group of 'have ran' in the likes of Mohd Noor Mansor as its adviser. Worthwhile noting he is a Muslim Bajau, a lawyer, and was the finance minister during the Umno-inspired Berjaya government of Harris Salleh who comes from the Kota Belud 'capital' of the West coast Bajaus. In Sabah politics, the needs of the Bajau community have to be appeased - they are not Malays and they have every reason to be proud of it.

As its president, Bersatu chose Maidom Pansai, a Kadazandusun also from Kota Belud. He may not come from the hinterlands of Tambunan like Pairin Kitingan, but it is close enough to the epicentre of the Kadazandusun battle. Representing Sabah Malays is its secretary-general Mohd Rahfee Mohd Rauf.

In spite of all this, after two years the party has yet to be registered. This only serves to confirm that BN Sabah, in particular Umno Sabah, does not wish to be pitted against a lethal and potent combined force of local politicians as in the case of Bersatu, and the likes of Keadilan, DAP, PAS and other Sabah-based parties in the opposition.

Negotiations were being held between Bersatu and Setia to devise a fall-back position. It has now become apparent that Umno Sabah is now trying to stop this. It is in the process taking control of Setia, once Setia made it clear of Bersatu that it was happy the negotiations were revealed.

The question now is: would the Barisan Alternatif, if they are really worth their salt (as they like us to believe), call for a dissolution of the respective Kelantan and Terengganu state assemblies which they control?

We wait for the next and probably final move by Dr Mahathir. Could it be brilliant, could it be the ticket to the unravelling of his legacy? After all, Sir, in all humility, I was once your little advisor. Your move Sir, please.