In twenty years, Malaysia has indeed transformed from a purely agrarian society to a modern industrialised country. While it is true that we have had one of the best leaders the country ever produced to be prime minister to preside over this phenomenal growth, it is equally true to say that two other factors had been responsible as well for most of what we see around us.

One was an exceptional flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) commencing in late 1970s until 1996. Around the later part of this period, Malaysia witnessed the highest per capita FDI inflow anywhere in the world. It was this huge avalanche of FDI that was responsible for the rapid increase in industrial production, and the consequent creation of millions of jobs in the country.

The second factor that made possible the huge increase in per capita earnings was the government's privatisation program. More than 300 government-owned and controlled entities were privatised during this period. This process of privatisation inevitably brought into the mainstream economy a huge pool of assets, which earlier were in the hands of the government - under-performing, under-valued and under-utilised.

However, now that scenario appears to have changed completely. Malaysia is no more the favourite destination for FDI. Thanks to Sept 11 and former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad's handling of the Anwar Ibrahim issue, the Malaysian government has ceased to enjoy the unchallenged polar position of power it once had.

Islamisation has become the rallying cry of both the opposition as well as the government. The consequent political and social fallout is beginning to scare away potential investors.

Furthermore, unlike earlier decades, there is no dearth of countries offering conducive investment climate for multinationals wanting to locate their manufacturing centres. China, India, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and just about everyone else seem to be pitching aggressively for the scarce Foreign Investments that are looking for safe and competitive manufacturing bases in the third world.

And on the privatisation front, there is nothing left for the current government to privatise. Dr M has privatised everything that could be privatised. At one point we were deluded into thinking that we had what it takes to be a centre of excellence for the IT industry. And that our IT thrust was going to provide the next engine of growth for the country. But, with time we have learned that our Multimedia Super Corridor is nothing more than a hyped up property development.

Foreign companies basing their operations in MSC appear to be doing so more for the tax breaks we offer than for undertaking any genuine IT work. The really serious IT operations all appear to be funneling into places like India, where there is ample supply of qualified and competent IT personnel.

So, where exactly are we to find the next engine of growth for Malaysia? A million dollar question indeed.

Against this backdrop, we have a yearly population increase of nearly half a million, out of which more than 70 per cent are bumiputra children. The true test of Pak Lah and his government lies in his ability to create sufficient jobs for the hundreds of thousands of youngsters coming into the employment scene every year.

Not being able to provide these young people, especially bumiputra youngsters with enough jobs would be disastrous for the BN government. For then, PAS will enjoy a field day with easy recruitment of idle and angry bumiputra youngsters from the kampongs..

Man, by his very nature, has to feel 'good' about himself for the sake of his overall sanity and bearing in life. This 'feel good' factor are contributed by education when men are younger and by their station in life as defined by their occupation when they are older. In the absence of these elements, the single most important other factor that would make a youngster 'feel good' about himself would be his religiosity. And PAS is perfectly placed to embrace him when he decides to turn to religion.

In this context, what is the long term scenario for the non-bumiputras? I think, given the lack of vision in Umno and BN, the ultimate electoral triumph is going to be that of PAS. If not in the next 10 years, PAS will certainly come to power in 20 to 30 years' time, when the bumiputra to non-bumiputra ratio is skewed heavily in favour of the former.

After all, in a mundane economy, for a bumiputra, there really is no big difference between supporting Umno and supporting PAS. Both parties would provide for and preserve special rights anyway. In fact, when the going gets tough, the scales would be tipped in favour of PAS.

Religious parties all over the world thrive during periods of recession, slow economic growth and prevalent unemployment. With their emphasis on 'rewards waiting in the hereafter' PAS will find easy converts to its cause during such times. So non-bumiputras might as well get used to the idea of having to live with PAS in the Federal government. For the long term future for Umno and BN does appear bleakvery bleak indeed.