There is a good feeling in Parti Amanah Negara’s camp in Kuala Kangsar as the election date draws closer. The real fight is now between the Barisan Nasional candidate and Pakatan Harapan.

Even so, the talk in town is that BN would be lucky to win this by-election. The reason is, the candidate is still observing the ‘curfew’ after the demise of her husband, the former MP for P067 Kuala Kangsar. Handicapped by losing touch with the people, the confidence level in Barisan’s camp is dwindling by the day.

On the other hand, Dr Ahmad Termizi Ramli, Pakatan’s candidate, who is also a first-timer, is on top flight making his rounds, meeting as many people as possible.

An even decisive reason for the eminent unseating of BN is the apparent split within Umno. The candidate had overtaken three senior people i.e. the deputy chief, the Women’s wing chief and the Youth chief, all of whom were eyeing for the seat’s candidacy but not daring enough to do the Kamilia Ibrahim stunt. Perhaps Umno’s choice of Mastura Mohd Yazid was to win the people’s sympathy, strategically projected in her ‘pity face’ posters.

PAS, which is running alone this time, seems to be struggling to strike the right chord both in the party’s machinery mobilisation and in getting the right messaging. Whilst PAS may retain most of its core Malay voters, the Chinese had shown their inclination for Pakatan, with DAP in the driving seat, to win the 24 percent Chinese voters.

Amanah has filled up the vacancy left by PAS in the then-Pakatan Rakyat. With Pakatan Harapan, there is better sync amongst the parties.

One may conclude that Amanah has no place in the game as shown by their trailing behind PAS in the recent Sarawak state elections. However, the more optimistic view was that whilst the 13,210 votes that PAS sown was a result of 15 years of work, the 8,433 votes that Amanah harvested was earned from a mere two-week campaign.

This revealed the inherent potential of Amanah who started up with practically nothing other than the organisation of the members who left PAS with no interested financier.

It had been said that the real test for Amanah in earning its place in Pakatan is the ongoing by-elections of Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar. This also is an opportunity for DAP and PKR to make amends for their disagreement in seats allocation in Sarawak.

Notwithstanding the teething problems of a new alliance, the choice of Amanah to represent Pakatan was a decision well taken. The mandate however, is for Amanah to at least soundly beat PAS. Winning the seats would be a big triumph for the new party, a signal that Amanah coming on board is an added value to Pakatan. Likewise, losing to PAS would not just be an embarrassment, but a warning to Amanah that it still can’t yet fit the big shoes.

So what does it take to win the Kuala Kangsar by-election? In the last election with a turnout of 84 percent, BN won by a slim 1,082 margin over Pakatan Rakyat which was represented by PAS. Will PAS be able to maintain the 13,100 or so votes this time? About 5,360 did not vote in 2013. Will the outstation voters come back to vote this time? The expected turnout this time is about 73 percent.

It is reasonable to assume that most of the outstation Malay voters will not come back to vote because they will have to come back again for the Raya get-together with their family members in two weeks.

The best performance by BN was in 2004, when Rafidah Aziz won with a majority of 5,748. The majority shrank in 2008 to 1,458 and dipped further to 1,082 in 2013. This was on the back of the rising support for Pakatan Rakyat. Will the 68 percent Malay voters be the deciding factor or the 24 percent Chinese and 7 percent Indian?

The facts are as follows. BN who used to enjoy a command of 62 percent of the Malay voters will lose that advantage because of the protest from within as well as the candidate’s public absence. PAS will be left with the 4,300 core Malay voters as it no longer appeals to the non-Malays. This accounts for 27 percent of the Malay votes. Pakatan Harapan therefore must wrestle with BN for the balance 73 percent of the Malay votes.

Outside chance for Pakatan to win

If Pakatan can maintain a 78 percent command of the Non-Malay votes over Barisan and secure 24 percent of the remaining 73 percent of the Malay votes, there is an outside chance for Pakatan to win this by-election by a very slim majority of 250 to 300 votes.

Mathematics aside, the decision of the voters will be to a certain degree affected by a few factors. The Dr Mahathir Mohamad factor will somehow weigh in favour for Pakatan especially if he turns up in the BN stronghold areas. However, the goodies and promises by BN as always will have a big impact especially on the Malays.

An obvious missing ingredient in the posters war is the glaring absence of the prime minister’s face being paired with the candidate. Unlike in Sarawak where Adenan Satem’s (Tok Nan) image is a plus factor to BN, here it seems the reverse is true.

In the past, the women’s votes favoured the BN candidate quite heavily. The high deficit during the last election on the Pakatan side in four daerah mengundi namely Kg Sayong Lembah, Bukit Chandan, Menora and Bekor were mainly due to the women voters. Amanah’s campaign machinery must appeal to the Malay women in this four Daerah Mengundi to close the gap.

The youth who are usually with the opposition were inclined to BN in Kg Sayong Lembah, Bukit Chandan, Talang and Ulu Kenas. Does Pakatan Harapan appeal to the young voters? Can Pakatan make the shift amongst the women and the youths in the voting areas mentioned?

If Amanah aims to wrestle 30 percent of the Malay votes market share, the party must be persuasive enough to the Malay women and the Malay youths. If done well, this will also be bad news to PAS.

Looking at the campaign approaches by the competing parties, it goes without saying that BN has the upper hand. It has everything at her disposal in the mainstream media as well as the physical assets on the ground. The lack of public appearance of her candidate seemed to be compensated by quality broadcasts of messages via mobile information vehicles.

Recently, Mastura’s portrait posters had a facelift to a more smiling one. The battle in the social media, however, is an open-for-all game. Even in this blessed month of Ramadan, personal attacks are rampant. At the end of the day, the recipients of these social media messages will judge from the content who the favoured proposition will be.

This by-election will not be the end of Amanah’s adventure, even if it lost badly. Amanah is here to stay, taking over from PAS albeit with a more moderate Islamic tone. Still, the truth is that Amanah has a lot to prove if it wants to be reckoned with.