Barisan Nasional, especially its leader Dr Mahathir Mohamad, had a particular aversion for Parti Bersatu Sabah, especially its recalcitrant president Pairin Kitingan. Despite various modalities of modus operandi to oust him, the more tenacious Pairin's hold on to power seemed to be.

Pairin could have been cast out of the political scene had the courts fined him more than RM2,000 in a corruption trial, but it was not to be. Various allegations of indiscriminate transfer and demotion of Muslim officers were hurled at PBS in order that the community would cast aspersions on Pairin and the party he leads. The effects were not as expected.

Then Pairin was removed as the chairman of the State Security Committee, ostensibly to keep him totally out of privy of the federal government's apparatchiks. Then threats of stoppage of federal funds for the state were very much on the air. When Pairin threatened to bring the issue to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), all of a sudden the Federal Development Department was created where federal funds were channelled, circumventing the state government. Doing so pre-empted Pairin's initiative for opinions from the world body on the matter.

BN's anger was at its zenith when Pairin ditched the national coalition on the eve of the 1990 parliamentary elections. In the midst of battling threats posed by Semangat 46, this act of Pairin was unforgivable. The net was cast ever wider to rein him in. Mustapha Harun was enlisted to challenge Pairin's Anti-hop Law in court. As expected, the court dismantled Pairin's last trenches against the might of the federal government.

Despite the existence of phantom voters, PBS received strong mandate form the people in the 1986 and 1990 elections. For all intents and purposes, Pairin seemed well entrenched and invincible. But without the protection of the Anti-hop Law, Pairin's fortress was at the mercy of BN's endless supply of bullets.

Hemmed in by the Anti-hop Law, his men would feign any hint of disloyalty to him and PBS despite the roiling desires in their hearts to cross over to the BN's turf. While waiting for the opportune time to leapfrog, their tenure at PBS then was to buy time.

Pairin knew his flock well, but was hapless, because he had lost all but a flimsy support system to cling on. He could perhaps depend on his popularity and the people's disenchantment with BN's arrogance and transgression of democratic tenets, but for all intents and purposes, he was alone.

The menace of phantom voters was real. (More than 90,000 dubious names were debunked from 2000's electoral rolls). Despite this, the rolls are still littered with names that are unaccounted for.

BN, especially Mahathir, knew of Pairin's catch-22 situation. The 1994 state election was the most critical for BN to wrest power from PBS. A two-thirds win by PBS would be fatal to Mahathir's plan. So for months before the election, endless streams of federal leaders of all denominations stomped their feet on Sabah soil, expounding to all and sundry the virtues of electing BN to the helm of the state.

However, even just days before polling day, the BN onslaught wasn't getting the desired results. Sensing this, more emotion-laden rhetoric was whipped up to a crescendo, and finally the coup de grace (the announcement of the rotation system of the chief minister's post) was promised as a grand finale of the BN's crusade against the PBS.

Despite all this, to the surprise and despondence of BN, Pairin survived the electoral battle, amid much reduced seats, setting a record of sorts as the only party to win three state elections consecutively.

With promise of high positions and padded pockets, for all intents and purpose, the exodus of PBS' state assembly representatives to BN was a matter of course with the demise of the Anti-hop Law. PBS won the elections but the BN won the government!

However, the Malaysian political landscape is fluid now. In the peninsula, the Malay masses have shifted their allegiance to the opposition, namely PAS and Keadilan. Mahathir's BN scraped through in the 1999 general elections with the help of the non-Malays.

Sabah contributed substantially to Mahathir's pyrrhic victory. If the Lunas by-election is any indication of Malay support for the PM, he is in for more surprises. The Sabah people are no exception. He really is walking the tightrope now. A single misstep would be disastrous for him. Handling Sabah is his toughest job for him.

Hence the PBS ascendancy to the helm of power once again cannot be discounted. It could still be the major power broker. Certainly, PBS has produced most of the state assembly representatives in Sabah.

Now who would get the chance to sit on the hottest seat in Sabah?

Mahathir is keeping his cards close to his chest. All the parties with vested interest have publicly or privately intimated their views on the issue to Mahathir.

Be that as it may, the chances that Umno might get the top post, and therefore continue to lead BN at the state level, seem remote in view of the fact that there are three Umno leaders, namely Tun Sakaran Dandai, Salleh Keruak, and the incumbent Osu Sukam, who have occupied the seat within the last six years.

The fact that Umno wants the system scrapped would not give them an extra mile, especially vis-a-vis fierce opposition from the rest of the BN component parties. Lajim Ukin, a Bisaya is also interested in the post, but being lumped in the Muslim group reduces his chances.

SAPP (Sabah Progressive Party) has served out its term. Chong Kah Kiat from the LDP might have a slim chance at the top post. Yet being from the same ethnic group as Yong Teck Lee could be a negative factor.

Joseph Kurup and Wilfred Mojilip Bumburing have been touted as possible contenders for the post. Between the two, Kurup might have the edge, not only because he is the president of PBRS and previous deputy chief minister, but that he has more assembly representatives. The negative factor, though, for the two men is their being not elected to the House.

Wences Angang definitely has a better edge among the bunch, but Mahathir can't afford to be too Sabah-centric in his action on the matter. He has to take into account the national scene. More than ever, he cannot overlook the international landscape, the instability in Indonesia, the change of governments in the Philippines and the US, poor global economic outlook, and especially the chilly Malaysia-US relations.

All the aforesaid candidates have no international connections. The only person in Sabah with such extensive international connections is Jeffrey Kitingan. Being Harvard-trained he is a member of the most influential Harvard alumni, whose members are all over the globe. He is known to be close to the Bushes, one of whom is the current president of the US.

Jeb Bush, the younger brother of the president, also the governor of California, even visited Jeffrey in Sabah some years ago. By virtue of his qualification in international relations, he is well-versed in international affairs, especially Asian affairs.

His role in spearheading the direction of the state policies was capped with the inception of the Institute for Development Sabah, IDS. Besides, Jeffrey is close to Mahathir and adept in the game of politics. Jeffrey is probably the only one who could help improve relations with the US.

Come March 18, Jeffrey Kitingan will be the Sabah chief minister.