Who's going to take premiership of the Malaysian government in mid 2010? My opinion? The following are the possible candidates:

1. Abdullah Ahmad Badawi

According to his announcement, he'll pass his throne to Najib Razak in June 2010. That is taking place two years from now. He also has the tendency of changing his mind to extend the duration or change his choice of successor.

Both options depend on who can convince Abdullah in securing his family after the transition of power. During the premiership transition plan from Mahathir to Anwar, Mahathir overturned the plan after Anwar carried out his role as acting prime minister for two months in 1998.

Anwar tried to prepare himself to be ready for his reform agenda but Mahathir sensed his threat and ignited his engine of conspiracy. For the current situation, Abdullah has the tendency of holding onto his position if no one can convince him with regards to protecting his family’s interest.

2. Anwar Ibrahim

Upon his release, his local and international influences have been rapidly growing despite the attempts of putting his image down by top government leaders. He has done a great job in uniting the opposition parties to go against the federal government.

The public interest in the direction of the opposition parties was proven clearly in the results of the March 2008 general election. The foundation of his Pakatan Rakyat coalition, PKR, a multi- racial party, has gained strong support from the supporters of other opposition parties.

He will be the next prime minister but only time will tell. He has several big obstacles to overcome before gaining the premiership.

1. Winning the case in the sodomy allegation against him

2. Winning a parliamentary election

3. Providing evidence to prove the criminal charges against Umno’s top leaders

4. Putting more pressure on the federal government regarding issues of public interest during parliamentary meetings

5. Further influence MPs from BN to join Pakatan to gain a strong majority in forming a new federal government

These obstacles are not easy even for normal Malaysian leaders, but knowing Anwar as a strong leader, he will be the next prime minister if his strive towards realising his political agenda and goes according to what he has planned.

He is among the top influential worldwide leaders that posses strong local and international support.

3. Najib Tun Razak

Within the party, he has strong support from Umno leaders but the strength of his grassroots support is trembling due to the allegations of many crime associated with him.

To be the next prime minister, he has to strengthen his grassroots support by working with them. If he is just going to talk, he is not capable of defeating Anwar's capability of influencing the public.

Although the local prime media is controlled by the government, Anwar and his supporters are still able to reach the public.

Najib has to work really hard to overcome Anwar’s and Mahathir’s influence while at the same time convincing Abdullah and Khairy throughout the transition of power.

4. Muhyiddin Yassin

He has strong support from Mahathir and most of Mahathir’s supporters who are still in Umno. The best thing that can happen to Muhyiddin is for Najib to be ‘proven’ and ‘publicised’ not fit to lead the government.

This highly depends on Pak Lah. Pak Lah is in quite a dilemma in choosing his successor. Many internal and external comments are given by the leaders and public saying that his decisions are highly influenced by his son-in-law.

From the current perspective, if Muhyiddin shows his obedience towards Khairy better than what Najib can do, he'll be chosen. Else, he’ll need to wait for Najib to resign after 2010.

5. Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah

Unlike Najib and Muhyiddin, Ku Li doesn’t depend on Pak Lah to elect him. Instead he wants to contest against Pak Lah for the Umno presidency. Many in Umno believe that Ku Li’s biggest obstacle is to get himself nominated first for the president post, a process which is known to be not fully democratic.

If he gets the nomination for presidency, he will have an equal chance of winning against Pak Lah.

If he is elected as the president of Umno, many Umno supporters will switch their support from Pak Lah to Ku Li.

In general, the difference between Pak Lah and Ku Li is that Pak Lah is strongly supported by Umno MPs while Ku Li is strongly supported by grassroots leaders.

Ku Li’s prospect as a prime minister highly depends on his supporters within Umno.