I refer to the Malaysiakini report By-election: Polling day on Jan 17.

The coming by-election due to the death of incumbent MP, Razali Ismail will be a good barometer to gauge the popularity of the present government after the trashing it suffered in the last general election.

A win by the BN will be a good farewell gift for the departing PM and a great moral booster for the incoming prime minister. But unlike in previous by-elections where the incumbent government with all the government machinery at its disposal wins the seats hands down, the situation this time is different as ground sentiment seems to be shifting to the opposition.

PAS who will nominate a candidate to contest in the by-election, will have more a big chance of winning the hotly contested seat, as previously its candidate lost with a very slim to the incumbent in the Malay majority area.

The local Umno leaders are broken into two main factions, one lead by the former menteri besar Idris Jusoh and another one led by present MB Ahmad Said. Both leader are not on good terms so this might weaken the local Umno machinary.

It is a well-known fact that Umno candidates usually lose their seats both in the state and federal level not because the party is weak but because they are sabotage by dissatisfied party members. This coming by-election is no exception if Umno fails to nominate a good candidate who is well-liked by the locals.

As usual, Barisan Nasional will be led by Najib Abdul Razak who will face off with his nemesis Anwar Ibrahim, who will lead the opposition in trying to win the minds and hearts of the locals.

Umno, which has been weakened by internal strife and is engrossed in party polls, is not in the best of shape to do battle in the by-election in Kuala Terengganu. The energised opposition will give Umno a run for its money and if PKR and its two partners DAP and PAS can work hand-in-hand like in the last general election, it won’t be a surprise if the PAS candidate wins.

A referendum of sorts on the performance of the present regime and the opposition can be held after the by-election results are announced. A win by the BN candidate might breathe new life into the present government.

A loss by BN to PAS will hasten its departure, as people are basically fed up with the present leadership, which is widely considered to be corrupt. Money politics which is a perennial problem in Umno local polls is a good indicator that leaders in the party are not elected because of their good character but because they spend more money than their rivals for coveted posts.

However, the opposition front cannot rest on its laurels and think that victory is in the bag. Umno will use all the tricks at its disposal to retain the seat.

The mainstream media will be used again by the government to demonise opposition parties and sing the praises of the present government. Development projects will be announced during the campaign period and new tarred roads, mosques and other amenities will be used to lure voters.

Understandably, Najib will be under tremendous pressure to win the by-election as he cannot afford another humiliating defeat like the one in Permatang Pauh. To be a prime minster, he needs to show the public that he is accepted by all.

Although a PAS victory will not have a major effect on BN’s majority in Parliament, it will underscore a strong message to the present government that their days are numbered and come the general election, it will be replaced.

Let’s wait for the outcome of the by-election in January 2009 and see where the winds of change are blowing. Voters in Kuala Terengganu will now have to think hard about how they want to vote. Their decision will determine the future course of our country.