Prime Minister and Barisan Nasional supremo Dr Mahathir Mohamad's comments about the challenge, especially from former defence minister Abang Abu Bakar Mustapha, to Sarawak Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud's leadership is a little short of what Taib's supporters want to hear.

At the end of a two-day official visit to Sarawak on Saturday, Mahathir was asked at a media conference to comment on Taib's now political nemesis Abang Abu Bakar's decision to take on his former party boss (Taib) in the forthcoming state elections.

All Mahathir said was Abang Abu Bakar could challenge Taib if he wants to so long as he does not drag in the name of Umno into the fray. He said he had spoken to his former defence minister and asked him not to use Umno's name but apparently it had fallen on deaf years. He also added that Umno has no intention of making its debut in Sarawak.

Taib's supporters had expected the prime minister to say much more - like asking Abang Abu Bakar perhaps not to take on Taib and support the Barisan Nasional instead, which the ruling Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) is a component party. After all, he had met Sarawak BN leaders and talked to them about the forthcoming state elections to find out whether they are all ready.

He had been quoted as saying that he had told the various component party leaders to stop bickering and get prepared for the polls. "The elections are not for fun," he was later quoted as saying, adding "It is about forming government."

Bottom line

Mahathir's statement about the Taib-Abang Abu Bakar challenge would appear to indicate that the prime minister is not prepared to say anything unpleasant about someone that he happens to have close contacts with even though Abang Abu Bakar is no longer part of his cabinet team.

Abang Abu Bakar's group is therefore expected to make full use of the prime minister's comment to say that since Mahathir has said publicly he (Abang Abu Bakar) can go and challenge the chief minister, the voters should take that as an endorsement of their campaign.

Abang Abu Bakar has said that his group intends to contest in more than 40 constituencies in Sarawak, mainly in Dayak, Malay and Melanau areas. He himself has declared he wants to take on Taib in Asajaya near Kuching.

But Taib may not stand in Asajaya. According to one political analyst, the bottom line is about winning, and if there are some risks in Taib defending his seat in Asajaya, why take the risks. But another view is that Taib will still win in Asajaya, except that he has been less than happy about the large number of voters that turned against him in the last parliamentary elections that saw his majority drastically reduced, in spite of what he has done for the Samarahan division which includes Asajaya.

Going by the saying one constituency's loss is another's gain, five other PBB assemblyman including Agriculture Minister Effendi Norwawi have rushed forward to offer Taib theirs, implying that if Asajaya people are so foolish, then they want the chief minister to bring more development to their constituencies instead.

This play of politics is to many people somewhat baffling, but one PBB man has described it as " politik merajuk ", or sulking politics, because Taib's efforts to build up Samarahan appear not to have been fully appreciated by many of the constituents.

Mount Everest

At the end of the day, what counts in every elections is about winning. Taib may have his popular vote slightly reduced in Asajaya or win hands down in another of the other constituencies offered to him. The fact is he will win all the same and remain chief minister. "It is probably easier to try and move Mount Everest than to try and topple him," said one political observer.

Although the prime minister has not given any hint at all when the state elections will be, talk that is gaining currency these days that it will be sometime in April.

The new head of state and the chief minister will be leaving for the umrah (minor haj ) later this week and it is expected that the dissolution of the state assembly will be after Taib's return in about 10 days with nomination date announced before the end of March.

Leaders of the various component parties have more or less made the names of their candidates public or at least confirmed reports of new faces being brought in or retention of the status quo among incumbents.

Tame affair?

One sure sign elections are real close is that federal ministers, deputy ministers and parliamentary secretaries are spending more time in towns, kampungs and long houses, if newspaper reports and pictures are anything to go by. "Don't expect this to go on till year-end. Not many can have the stamina to last that long .Elections have to be close," noted the political observer.

Even the national news agency Bernama and national papers are making preparations to send big teams for Sarawak's election coverage. The assembly of peninsular journalists coming for the elections would seem to indicate that contrary to what many people think, the elections are not going to be a quiet and tame affair.

Of interest will be Parti Keadilan which is going to field candidates in both Chinese and non- Chinese areas, the DAP which is still in a spin after its long standing dispute over some seats with the Chinese side of Parti Keadilan and, of course, the Abang Abu Bakar's group going all out to topple Taib's PBB.

TONY THIEN is a freelance journalist based in Kuching.