In the aftermath of the Manek Urai state polls PAS is desperately hunting for answers to its razor thin victory of 65 as Umno and Barisan Nasional wax lyrical over what they see as a sign of revival in their fortunes after the disastrous outing of the March 8, 2008 general election and recent by-elections.

NONE Umno's feat in slashing a majority of 1,352 votes a year ago to just a handful is certainly an eye-opening achievement and could act as confidence booster for future by-elections.

Umno and BN are riding high on euphoria quite confident that the winds of change are blowing their way after the ascension of Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak and his first 100 days in office.

Certainly, Umno and BN faced an uphill task in this traditional PAS stronghold where the Islamist party him in 10 out of 12 general elections. Despite losing the seat on July 14 such a huge majority in itself can be considered to be high achievement.

NONE Pakatan Rakyat ,on the other hand, despite its sixth triumph to the BN's one since the last general election, projects the impression that all is not well within its ranks.

The in-fighting in the Pakatan-led governments of Selangor, Kedah and Penang may have contributed in some measure to the Manek Urai result as could have the PAS about turn in rejecting unity talks with Umno.

PAS state election director Abdul Fatah Haron's premature announcement that the party had already gained a majority of 2,000 votes that Tuesday, was certainly ill-timed and strategically naive as at the end of the day he had to eat his own words.

Development magic

breakdown of votes in manek urai by election 160709 The other question PAS has to ponder is whether the promise of more development like the new two- lane bridge conditional on a BN victory had attracted a sizeable section of the 12,293-strong Manek Urai electorate.

The Manek Urai polls results reveal that BN's candidate Tuan Aziz Tuan Mat, won in five out of nine electoral districts, with PAS - Mohd Fauzi Abdullah (Abe Uji) chalking up a majority in four. (see results right )

In 2008, BN had a majority in SK Kampung Karangan in Manjor which is said to be an Umno stronghold. Now, that it had made inroads in another four areas is certainly bad news for PAS.

For example, at SK Temalir*, the Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin had promised a new mosque if the BN was returned there.

At SK Manek Urai and Manek Urai Baru**, Muhyiddin ‘s offer was a new bridg e to replace the single lane 300 metre bridge if BN won.

These show that BN's development theme worked in Manek Urai contrary to whatever PAS maybe claim (i.e there is no need for development). It's now difficult for PAS to ignore development in other areas not just in Kota Bharu.

Senior Kelantan exco member, Husam Musa remarking on this issue, challenged Muhyiddin to deliver on his promise to build the new bridge as despite losing the contest for Manek Urai, the BN had already scored in Manek Urai Baru and Manek Urai.

The oil royalty issue was first thought of as a trump card; a show of championing the rights of Kelantan and her people. However, it's quite possible that the people may have found it difficult to grasp the issue.

Polls lessons for PAS

NONE Taking all these into account, the temptation is to see them as indicating the wanning influence of 78-year-old Kelantan Menteri Besar Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat ( below ), who had helmed the state for 19 years. Husam, begs to differ, pointing the finger instead at the BN's alleged voting-buying.

Besides video evidence of a supposedly Umno official giving transport allowance to outstation voters, the other accusation was that party officials had travelled inside a "van jenazah" to hand RM500 to each household two nights before polling day but were later stopped by PAS volunteers.

NONE Whatever it is, PAS has to do some soul searching on how the party could maintain its strength in taking on Umno in future contests the way it did in Bukit Gantang with ousted Perak mentri besar Mohmmad Nizar Jamaluddin as candidate.

Another factor worth looking at it is a well attended ceramah does not necessarily translate into votes. PAS ceramah at Manek Urai has clearly attracted the crowds especially local villagers and those from surrounding nearby constituency. However, it had failed miserably to transform into votes.

The Islamist party has to find the wisdom to fathom the changes that are occurring all around and be pragmatic enough to adjust to them without sacrificing its basic principles.

This is a tall but necessary order if it wants to maintain its place in the hearts of the Kelantanese as well elsewhere in the country.

Umno's winning tactics

bn umno candidate and leaders manek urai by election nomination day 060709 13 The feat in the Islamist party's stronghold, could represent a sign of revival for Umno. Putting a young candidate and meeting the aspirations of the young, promising to attend to their needs may be the key for the party to garner more support especially when 45 per cent of the voters are below 40 as in Manek Urai.

For Umno, the Manek Urai by-election also showed the people's acceptance of the Tok Pa's (Minister of International Trade and Industry Mustapa Mohamed) leadership in steering the Kelantan Umno to a near upset.

For him, the task of slimming down the majority and attempting to win back the Malay vote was mission accomplished, especially with Manek Urai where they form a 99.2 per cent of the constituents.

NONE One must not forget the common touch provided by Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin, the Rembau MP, who had made Manek Urai his second home, and sat with penghulu in coffee shops and inquiring about their problems.

Such tactics can win hearts and minds and accessibility to leaders or their representatives is of utmost importance to the Kelantan people .

Muhyiddin can rest easy now since he was the one to sound the call for Umno's dismal performance in by-elections to stop there . And in Manek Urai, the party did just that.