The question in Sabah now among most politicians aligned either to the government or the opposition is on the wisdom of relying only on one man to make the decision on Sabah's political fate.

This concerns is, of course, on the issue of the rotational system for the post of state's chief ministership, and whether Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad as leader of the ruling Barisan Nasional alone can decide whether it ought to be scrapped or continued.

In Sabah, there are, in fact, three schools of thought. One favours abolishing it because it is seen as ridiculous to fix the term of a chief minister to no more than 24 months when general elections are held once every five years.

Mahathir's own party members in Sabah, namely, the United Malays National Organisation (Umno), successor to the now defunct United Sabah National Organisation (Usno), are all in favour of doing away with the two-year term altogether, and leaving it to the majority party to nominate the state's chief executive.

Ingenious idea

The second school of thought is in favour of retaining such a system simply because of Sabah's history of political volatility or what Sabah Progressive Party (Sapp) leader and a former chief minister Yong Teck Lee has described as "the pendulum swing of local politics."

What in effect Yong is saying is: scrap the rotational system and you'll at once disturb the equilibrium of political forces in Sabah. What this means in simple terms is that in spite of what they may have said in public whatever may be the prime minister's decision, there is no guarantee a change in the system will hold all the parties together under the Sabah Barisan Nasional.

In other words, the beneficiary could be former chief minister Joseph Pairin Kitingan's Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) whose political fortunes have clearly been on the wane and continues to be so every since Mahathir came up with the somewhat ingenious idea of getting the three major communities to lead the government once every two years.

To be sure, Yong is not alone with that view. It is generally assumed that most if not all other parties except for Umno want the status quo retained, if only because everyone wants to have a go at being the chief minister.

Two years may be too short to qualify for a chief minister's pension, but the office holds a lot of power and glamour, even though since 1996 powers over land, forestry and mining matters have been shifted from the chief executive to the cabinet.

In most other cases, the chief minister still can decide on his own, in consultation with his cabinet colleagues.

The two Kadazandusun-based parties, PBRS and Upko, are raring to go for the job. A dark horse is the Chinese-based Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) whose leader Chong Ka Kiat, a state minister, has been mentioned as a possible chief minister if Umno's Osu Sukam, the present chief minister, has to step down at the end of his two-year term in mid-March.

PM uncomfortable

The third opinion is of the segment of Sabah's population who are not politically inclined but are only interested in Sabah's political stability irrespective of whether of the system stays in place or not.

Sapp leader Yong Teck Lee's views, made public since his recent meeting with Mahathir, have not come as much of a surprise. It is partly to respond to the prime minister's comments on the lame-duck status of a chief minister if the term is kept too short.

But then Yong had been chief minister for two years, and when he said regarding the lame duck issue might only be relevant within the last few months of the term and that this could be minimised by shifting responsibilities completely to the cabinet is seen as making clear to Mahathir there is no good reason not to continue with the rotational system under the present circumstances.

Mahathir clearly is uncomfortable about having to make the decision as indicated by his recent statement that he is asking the leaders of the various component parties what they now want to do. Will he listen just to Umno or allow the majority view (of the Sabah-based political parties) to prevail? Will he now want also to take opposition PBS' views into consideration?

Either way, he is not going to find it any easier. The bet is that while he can tell Sabah Umno what to do, it will be different with the other parties, especially the Chinese and Kadazandusun-based parties who obviously feel that the present rotational system gives them a better chance of leading the government from time to time.

TONY THIEN is a freelance journalist based in Kuching.