A Johor PKR strategist claimed that there was a strong possibility for the Pakatan Rakyat coalition to have a vote swing of less than 15 per cent in order for it to wrest control of the state from Barisan Nasional in the next general election.

PKR Johor strategic director Nor Azman Hashim said it was a myth created by the BN spin doctors that the Peninsular's southern-most state is the ruling coalition's impregnable political fortress.

He said based on the vote swing in last year's general election, Pakatan coalition could finally break BN-Umno stranglehold in Johor with a 10 to 15 per cent swing.

"Pakatan would just need to keep the current momentum going in order to take control of Johor," he told Malaysiakini today.

However, he acknowledged that Pakatan states must perform and deliver from now until the next national polls if it's to win over Johoreans' public confidence.

He said the performance of Pakatan-administered state governments of Kelantan, Kedah, Penang and Selangor would be influential and crucial to convince Johoreans to envisage change in the next polls.

Nor Azman claimed that one could sense Johor BN is not as powerful today based on a comparative study on the electoral vote swing between the 2004 and 2008 general elections.

He said compared with the 2004 general election there was an average of 15 to 20 per cent vote swing in favour of Pakatan in Johor last year.

BN popularity on the decline

"Pakatan enjoyed a vote increase by more than 100 per cent while BN suffered more than a 100 per cent decline in popular votes," he said.

He said the increase of popular votes for Pakatan was, however, not reflected proportionately in the number of seats won.

In 2008, BN won 25 of the 26 parliamentary seats and 50 of the 56 state seats in Johor.

Pakatan won one parliamentary seat in Bakri (through DAP) and six state seats.

DAP won the Bentayan, Mengkibol, Senai and Skundai state seats and PAS won the Sungai Abong and Maharani state seats.

PKR contested 10 parliamentary and state seats, but lost them all.

DAP contested six parliamentary and 12 state seats while PAS contested nine parliamentary and 34 state seats. PRM, on the other hand, contested one parliamentary seat (in Johor Bahru).

Under BN, Umno contested 16 parliamentary and 34 state seats, MCA contested eight parliamentary and 15 state seats, MIC contested one parliamentary and four state seats, and Gerakan contested one parliamentary and three state seats.

BN's majority, slashed

Nor Azman said his study showed that despite defeats in many areas, the vote swing in Johor was among the biggest for Pakatan compared to votes won in the other states.

For instance, he said the vote swing between 2004 and 2008 in parliamentary seats for Gelang Patah, Batu Pahat, Muar, Johor Bahru, Kluang and state seats for Penderam, Tangkak and Skudai, were huge.

BN's 2004 majorities were slashed by 60 to 80 per cent.

For instance, he explained that the majority of 31,000 votes went down to 7,000 in Gelang Patah, from 29,000 votes to 12,000 in Batu Pahat, from 12,000 to 4,000 in Muar and from 18,000 to 3,000 in Kluang.

BN majority in Penderam also went down from 9,800 votes to 500 and from 5,000 votes to 200 in Tangkak.

In Skudai (won by DAP Dr Boo Cheng Haw) BN votes went down by 14,000 - from a majority win by 2,193 votes to 12,854 majority defeat.

On average, he said that Pakatan managed to slash BN votes by 4,000 at the state level contests and by 10,000, at the parliamentary level.

Nor Azman pointed out that virtually all constituencies, both state and parliamentary, are racially balanced and mixed seats.

"The series of by-election victories in the past one year showed that Pakatan had a great chance of winning racially balanced and mixed areas," he said.

Of Johor's estimated three million population, Malays make up 53 per cent, Chinese, 40.6 per cent and Indians, 6.1 per cent.

Nor Azman said Johor would be the yardstick to determine whether Pakatan have successfully taken over Putrajaya.

For Pakatan to increase its current 82 parliamentary seats across the country Johor would need to secure between 10 and 15 parliamentary seats.

"If Johor falls, it means BN and Umno have finally been removed from Putrajaya.

"It's a tall order but not mission impossible.

"It can be achieved with the correct strategies and right candidates," he said.