With just two days of campaigning left, PAS today launched the third phase of their Bagan Pinang by-election campaign in a final bid to create an upset.

NONE In a symbolic show of force, PAS rallied a large contingent of Pakatan Rakyat elected reps from across the country this morning in front of media cameras before deployment to their respective ‘battle stations'.

PAS elections director Salahuddin Ayub is cautiously optimistic that the finish line is within reach.

"From the latest developments and ‘mood', I'm confident that PAS would be able to create history here in Bagan Pinang, though I admit it won't be easy," he told reporters.

Beneath the surface though, most observers believe that PAS is trailing significantly because of the weaknesses in its local machinery and a credible showing by the Barisan Nasional campaign.

Negri Sembilan PAS is not well rooted in the state, and the 2008 general elections was proof of this when the party won only one out of 13 seats contested.

‘BN defensive'

Its state headquarters, hidden in Jalan Jelubu at the outskirts of state capital Seremban, has been hardly noticeable until recently.

PAS' campaign is based on its slogan Bersama Kehendak Rakyat (With the wishes of the people) and is touting Bagan Pinang as a launch pad for its bid to take over the state government.

In the mornings, PAS would hold daily press conferences to show failed state projects under the administration of former menteri besar Mohd Isa Samad, who is the BN candidate for Bagan Pinang.

NONE At night, PAS ceramah stages are filled with speakers who in between contentious national issues, deride the Election Commission and the BN administration over irregularities in the postal voting process.

The two-prong strategy appears to attack the credibility of both the candidate and attract possible sympathy votes, in view of the perceived 4,600 vote handicap presented by postal voters.

"They are on the defensive. Everyday they have to reply our allegations," said Salahuddin.

1Malaysia theme

Meanwhile, BN's campaign is riding heavily on Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak ‘1Malaysia: People first, performance now' tagline which has accompanied the majority of its campaign material.

While attacking the government is the staple of the opposition's campaign, BN leaders mostly boast about the promises delivered and capabilities of the current state and federal administrations.

bagan pinang 081009 bn billboard A slew of ‘instant' approvals for low-cost housing projects, water retention ponds and land for schools, among many others, were announced one after another in a bid to prove that the BN administration delivers on its promises.

Part of the BN's smooth campaign so far has been attributed to the undivided support shown by the Teluk Kemang Umno division which Isa leads, unlike in previous by-elections where murmurings of infighting, jealousy and boycotts were frequent.

Menteri Besar Mohamad Hassan's back-to-back campaigning activities have also helped to dispel rumours that he had a rift with Isa, who may join his state Cabinet if elected.

Isa is being portrayed as a local hero against PAS' Zulkefly Mohd Omar as the former grew up in a village within the constituency and this is expected to work in BN's favour to a certain extent.

Indian votes crucial

The main battleground may well lie with the Indian voters, half of whom reside in the various plantations in the rural parts of the constituency.

bagan pinang by-election 071009 samy vellu visit 01 MIC secretary-general S Murugesan believes that after six days of vigorous campaigning in these areas, the sentiment among locals appear favourable compared to the last general elections.

"But 60 percent of the Indian voters reside outside the constituency," said Murugesan, adding that they may well be the deciding factor.

Indians make up a significant 20 percent of the constituents and had mostly backed the then PAS candidate in 2008.

But an unprecedented shower of attention by the BN machinery is leaving opposition campaigners worried.

A heated final lap of campaigning is expected as out-of-town voters return to cast their ballots and fill up ceramah grounds which have been mostly lukewarm, but expected considering that only there are only 13,000 voters.

PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim's participation in the campaign this Friday and Saturday is also heavily anticipated. He is currently in America.

But for now, most bets are placed on BN although a slicing of the winning majority would be enough for PAS to claim a moral victory.