Five in a row or Waterloo in Bagan Pinang?

All questions will be answered tomorrow whether PAS will make it five in a row clean sweep of winning in by-elections or will the former Negri Sembilan Menteri Besar Isa Samad (right) prove to be Pakatan Rakyaat's Waterloo and signal a Umno and Barisan Nasional revival.

PAS has already won by-elections in the Kuala Terengganu and Bukit Gantang parliamentary seats.

It had also secured the Manek Urai and Permatang Pasir state seats. Bagan Pinang is the fifth contest out of nine elections after the March 8, 2008 General Election.

All eyes are trained on the Bagan Pinang state seat within the Teluk Kemang parliamentary constituency as polling starts tomorrow.

But the 4,604 armed forces personnel and policemen began to cast their votes on Thursday as postal voters.

For PAS to be successful in making it five in a row, it must gather at least 55 per cent of the Malay voters which number around 8,577.

Translated to numbers, this means it must garner the support of at least 4,720 Malay votes for it to win.

It is said that during the March 8, 2008 general election, PAS managed to garner at least 45 per cent of the support of the Malay community.

Role of underdog

PKR Youth chief, Shamsul Iskandar Mohamad Akin said disregarding the postal voters, the opposition Pakatan Rakyat has to work on the ordinary voters.

"We are quite confident of getting 70 percent each of the Chinese and Indian voters support.

All we need is to work hard and attract 55 percent of the Malay support to ensure victory for PAS and Pakatan," he said.

"This is a good opportunity for Pakatan as signs of a changing tide are there. We hope to ride on this. If this is achieved, we will be able to secure a slim majority. We like the role of the underdog."

There are signs that PAS and Pakatan making an impact in this by-election as Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak, who was in Paris acknowledged that winning was more important than a majority .

Although this contest is expected not to change or affect the formation of the Negri Sembilan state government, a win for PAS would put added pressure on its present Menteri Besar Mohamad Hassan.

With the death of Bagan Pinang state representative Azman Mohammad Noor, BN controls 20 state seats while Pakatan has 15 (DAP 10, PKR 4 and PAS 1).

Uphill task for PAS

For the past few days, Pakatan has been moving its machinery with better cohesion.

DAP vehicles have been seen carrying the PAS flag and posters of PAS leaders like Kelantan Mentri Besar, Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat.

The special Chinese community ceramah by Pakatan had also been well attended, with opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim's presence at Ladang.

PAS vice-president Salahuddin Ayub, who is heading the Islamic party machinery, was more evasive of the party's chances of winning when he said the coalition is entering its final phase where senior Pakatan leaders like PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim, PAS spiritual leader Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, DAP leaders Lim Guan Eng and Lim Kit Siang were giving talks.

"The reception for change is there and we are quite confident there will be some impact," he said without expanding further when asked.

PAS has fielded its state commissioner Zulkefli Mohamad Omar as candidate against the popular and affable Isa.

DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng, when met after a ceramah on Thursday acknowledged that PAS and Pakatan are facing an uphill battle following Isa's candidacy.

The opposition Pakatan have been using Isa's money politics party suspension, his alleged abuse of power by transfering Malay reserve land here and also in Felda Sendayan , Felda LBJ, and national issues like the death of A Kugan and political aide Teoh Beng Hock.

Also included in the arsenal is the Port Klang Free Trade Zone debacle, the cleanliness of Bagan Pinang town, discrepancy in the postal votes and abandoned projects here during Isa's tenure as menteri besar in this by-election.

But will it be enough?

There is no doubt that PAS and Pakatan is making a lot of headway in Bagan Pinang but the question is whether they have done enough to undermine Isa?

Despite being was suspended from Umno in 2005, Isa has remained a local popular figure.

Isa, is said to be a legend here as he makes an attempt to remember the names of the people whom he had met when he started as a politician and helming the Teluk Kemang Umno division.

The former menteri besar is banking on his 22 years as MB and for bringing progress to the state, and hopes he will be accepted.

"His personal and easy going approach has attracted the people and voters here as he is a local boy. He is well liked by the people here," said an Umno worker.

And with the backing of the 4,604 postal voters, Isa is expected to win.

However, the question remains as to what happens to the current MB, Mohamad Hassan's tenure should Isa win?

Isa, had said during his campaign rounds that he was not aiming for an Exco position but only wants to help Umno and BN to get victory following the poor record in by-elections.

Much is riding high as Umno and BN have focussed all its election machinery with numerous ministers and deputy ministers making their Bagan Pinang rounds.

Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has even offered more than RM900,000 in aid for seven Chinese vernacular schools.

BN and Umno are pinning their hope on Isa to win handsomely and stop the rot.

For PAS, reducing Umno and BN's majority would certainly be a feat in itself tomorrow in this Umno and BN stronghold.