Bagan Pinang by-election BN candidate and former Negeri Sembilan menteri besar Mohd Isa Abdul Samad may secure a reduced majority win or even face the possibility of an upset by PAS candidate Negeri Sembilan PAS commissioner Zulkefly Mohamad Omar.

Although Isa's hopes to get a bigger majority than the late BN assemblyperson Azman Mohd Noor's 2,333-vote majority in the last general election, ground reality states otherwise, according to sources.

There is a possibility of PAS getting sympathy or protest votes from the BN camp as PAS had campaigned as the underdog, facing a well-oiled BN propaganda machinery with its handouts of by-election goodies in an effort to win over the electorate.

isa samad 061009 servicemen The source said: "The possibility of getting a bigger majority than the previous 2,333 vote-majority secured by Azman Mohd Noor is just not there although BN has harped on this."

"The reduced majority win may be in the range of 1,000 votes or a win of only 500 votes," claimed another source.

Then, there is the possibility of a narrow upset win by PAS based on political events that has unfolded during the campaign period leading up to polling day today.

Yesterday, former premier Mahathir Mohamad had rightly put it in a nutshell on the political mood of the BN component parties during the Bagan Pinang by-election campaigning.

He read the mood correctly when he said the BN spirit has been put in the back burner as its leaders concentrate on their political survival instead of ensuring a win in Bagan Pinang.

Lukewarm campaigning by MCA

Although MCA party leaders were campaigning in Bagan Pinang, their minds were more on the outcome of their posts and the future of their party leading to the party's extraordinary general meeting (EGM).

MCA's lukewarm campaigning as a result of the party's political turmoil did not go down well with the 10.96 percent Chinese voters.

"Yesterday's dramatic EGM's results has swung the Chinese votes to PAS, especially those who had initially been fence sitters," said a source.

Many of the 20.94 percent of Indian voters have moved out of the constituency for greener pastures. The remaining Indian population are however a savvy lot, having been educated by NGOs and Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) on their basic rights as citizens.

spr approve psm logo 290409 s arutchelvan "PSM party members have put their hearts and soul towards achieving enlightening the suppressed and oppressed community," said party secretary-general S Arutchelvam ( right ).

As for the nine Indian parties that have pulled the minority community in different directions, they seem more interested in their own selfish ends rather than genuine concern in the welfare of the community.

Although, BN has given the community by-election and Deepavali goodies such as clothes and kitchen utensils to win their hearts over, a source is not convinced.

"They have been urged by Pakatan Rakyat to take whatever goodies that the BN dishes out and vote instead for the opposition," the source stated.

The assumption that all the 4,604 postal votes will go to BN may be wrong as a source said that many of the army personal are not happy with the BN government.

Army personnel unhappy

"Recently a popular high-ranking army personnel had been sidelined by the government and this will see protest votes swinging to PAS as the anger against the government is high among the army personnel," the source claimed.

Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar Mohamad Hassan denied the state Umno is divided into camps based on personal political agendas.

"There is a fear in Mohamad Hassan's camp that if Isa wins he may seize the state chief's post and Umno protest votes may go the other way," claimed a BN source.

Mahathir still has influence among the 8,577 Malay voters, especially the older generation, and his objection to Isa being the BN candidate may swing some votes to PAS.

pas salahudin ayub 230708 It is compounded further by PAS vice-president Salahuddin Ayub ( left ), who had accused Isa of allegedly allocating government reserve land in Bagan Pinang and Teluk Kemang for himself and his cronies.

Isa's action in allegedly acquiring pig farmers' land during the height of the Japanese encephalitis epidemic and allegedly charging high premium has not sat well with Chinese voters.

PAS may also gain from sympathy votes when their members were alleged attacked and manhandled by Umno members, for which PAS had lodged five police reports.

Today's voting pattern might well set the tone for the next general election.