Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad's ruling party Umno has made some progress in denting the popularity of its conservative Islamic rival PAS in Kedah but analysts warned Friday of a tough battle in coming general elections.

Analysts said Umno had gained ground after wresting back the Pendang national parliamentary seat in Kedah from PAS in Thursday's by-elections.

And although the Umno failed to retake the Anak Bukit seat for the Kedah's state legislature, the PAS held on to it with a reduced majority.

The by-elections were seen as a crucial pointer to national sentiment over the PAS's controversial plans to impose strict syariah laws, including amputation for theft and death by stoning for adultery.

The polls were the first since PAS announced the new laws for Terengganu, one of two states it controls, in a first step to create an Islamic theocracy.

The by-elections were also the first since Mahathir's announcement last month that he would step down next year after 22 years in power, ahead of national polls due in 2004 but widely expected next year.

Losing in Anak Bukit dashed Umno's hopes of regaining its two-thirds majority rule in the Kedah state assembly.

Regaining lost ground

However PAS's winning margin was slashed from 1,840 votes in the 1999 general election to a very tight 508 votes.

Analysts and politicians said the results showed Umno regaining ground lost to PAS in the 1999 polls after the sacking and jailing of Mahathir's popular deputy, Anwar Ibrahim, divided the Malay community.

But they warned there was still a lot of hard work ahead for Umno if it wanted to win back its once vast support among the Malays, which make-up 60 percent of Malaysia's 23 million population.

Although PAS's popularity has eroded since its move to implement strict syariah laws in Terengganu and the Sept 11 attacks on the United States blamed on radical Muslim militants, it remains a formidable foe and cannot be written off, they added.

"It shows that Umno is gaining ground but a lot more work needs to be done to change the mindset of the Malays," Abdul Razak Baginda, executive director of the Malaysian Strategic Research Centre, told AFP .

Abdul said many Muslim Malays were still supporting the PAS solely because of its pro-Islamic stance.

"When it comes to religion, the Malay mind is closed and PAS is exploiting this," he said.

Religion role

Prime Minister Mahathir himself conceded Friday that religion played a key role in Muslim support for the hardline PAS, which rules Kelantan as well as Terengganu.

"It's not easy to convert fanatics... who do not know how to evaluate but merely follow what their leaders tell them to do," he said.

"It is very disappointing that they should support people who are obviously showing disrespect to Islam."

Political analyst P Ramasamy said PAS's laws had polarised non-Malays to vote for Umno and the ruling National Front coalition.

"It looks like Umno has gained ground as a result of Sept 11 and is an indication that the National Front should not have any problems in winning the general election," he said.

"But PAS still has significant influence especially in rural Malay society. It cannot be written off."

This was the third by-election since Sept 11, with Mahathir's ruling coalition winning the two earlier polls.

The Malay-language Berita Harian in an editorial Friday said the by-election results showed Malay votes swinging back to Umno but warned the road ahead was "still long and full of curves and thorns".

The daily said Umno must do much more to woo the younger generation, many who had openly voted for PAS in the Kedah by-elections.

Feather in the hat

Diplomats said Umno's victory was a feather in the hat for premier-in-waiting Abdullah Ahmad Badawi who led the election campaign.

Abdullah is to take-over from Mahathir in October 2003.

"His star has risen one extra notch as he has shown that he is able and willing to take on PAS in its stronghold. It puts him in good stead with Umno and the National Front," said an Asian diplomat. AFP