Among the three state assembly seats in the constituency, the rustic Hulu Bernam and the cowboy town of Batang Kali are two extremes, where one is a Barisan stronghold and the other favours Pakatan.

However Kuala Kubu Bharu, the administrative capital of the constituency, is finely balanced between the two groups.

NONE In the 2008 general election all three state seats tilted towards Barisan, but then PKR's Zainal Abidin (right) won the parliamentary seat. Zainal recently passed away to trigger the by-election.

Estates and plantations

"Hulu Bernam is the most interior part of Selangor, and it is full of estates and plantations, unlike Batang Kali which is closer to modern towns like Rawang and Selayang and metropolitan Kuala Lumpur," said a MIC leader on condition on anonymity.

There are a total 16 rubber estates and oil palm plantations in Hulu Bernam and a few of the Orang Asli settlements on the borders of Hulu Selangor and Perak.

A total of 17,549 voters make up Hulu Bernam - 67.7 percent Malays, 17.2 percent Chinese, 14.8 percent Indians and 0.3 percent others.

"The majority of the people have no access to nearby towns, to modern thinking and attitudes. So their tradition is to mark their ballots for the scale ," he said.

BN assemblyperson Mohamed Idris Abu Bakar won with a majority of 3,549 against his opponent Sukor Ali from PAS out of the 12,421 valid votes.

Then incumbent for the parliamentary seat, G Palanivel, gained 1,480 votes from the district but still lost to Zainal.

Tricky towns

While Hulu Bernam is a BN fort, Batang Kali and Kuala Kubu Bharu are tricky locations," continued the MIC source.

"Zainal Abidin had won by just 111 votes in Kuala Kubu Bharu in 2008, showing that the people there could go either way," said the source.

Furthermore, he estimated that there would be a 80 percent turnout at the by-election.

"It will be a mammoth task to regain their support but this time around we calculate a 15 to 20 percent increase of votes from Batang Kali," he added.

"The Malays here are torn between Barisan and Pakatan while the Chinese and Indians are staunch supporters of DAP and PKR, respectively," he admitted.

NONE Palanivel (left) , a four-term MP in Hulu Selangor is tipped to be BN's candidate and the source said he was a nice man but tends to makes promises and later find it difficult to keep them. "However he is honest and he has not taken anything from Hulu Selangor."

However there are those who favour others beside Palanivel. "If MIC had kept it low key and announced their choice of the candidate later, there would be less time for attacks to be launched on Palanivel," said the source.

"Nevertheless, BN will go out of their way to secure the confidence of the doubters.

"Our campaign is simple, Zainal was never around when he was MP and the party workers did not do anything on his behalf for the constituency.

"All I want to say to the voters is that you gave two years to Pakatan Rakyat, so give two years to BN and during the general election you can decide again, who is the better choice," he said.

The urban factor

Major satellite towns in Hulu Selangor, namely Bukit Beruntung, Bandar Baru Sungai Buaya and Bukit Sentosa, are all located in the district of Batang Kali.

um pro-m talk 05022010 03 lee khai loon "Here, the majority work in Rawang or Kuala Lumpur," said PKR Hulu Selangor Youth's information chief Lee Khai Loon (right).

"In the past they voted for the opposition and in Batang Kali alone Zainal won by a majority of 1,789 votes," he said.

Batang Kali constitutes of 59.4 percent Malays, 20.3 percent Chinese, 19.9 percent Indians and 0.3 percent others.

"The whole population reflect the whole of Malaysia, so our campaign will be based on a multiracial platform," said Lee.

Lee explained that the influence of the opposition lessened in areas further away from the Klang Valley.

"They have no Internet, they don't get alternative news," he said.

"But we have to get to people and make them understand that it is a Parliamentary seat by-election and therefore they need to be thinking about national issues," said Lee.