Both Hulu Selangor and Sibu are seen as strongholds for Barisan Nasional. However, for the next four weeks Pakatan Rakyat’s mission will be to deny BN victories and inching towards a two-thirds majority in the Dewan Rakyat.  

Presently, the House has 222 seats, and two-thirds control would mean a party or a coalition has a minimum of 148 elected representatives.

With independent MPs now amounting to five, Pakatan Rakyat's share is now reduced to 76 being DAP (28), PKR (25), and PAS (23). In addition, Parti Socialist Malaysia has one seat in Sungai Siput.

SAPP, which has withdrawn from BN,  has two representatives.

pkr mp hulu selangor zainal abidin ahmad This leaves BN with 136 seats. However there are two vacancies currently, after the deaths of Dr Zainal Abidin Ahmad ( right ) in Hulu Selangor and Robert Lau in Sibu.

Should the five independents and the two SAPP lawmakers become ‘friendly’ to BN, the ruling party is edging ever close to getting a two-thirds majority.

Hence, lies the importance of these two by-elections. Should BN win, it would result in it getting 138 seats.

This would mean it would require another three elected representatives from PR to either defect or become independent, and 'friendly' to BN, in order to reach the two-thirds majority.

A coalition having two-thirds majority may result in the Federal Constitution being amended and other legislation forced through.

 The redelineation of constituencies by the Election Commission, which had in the past seemed tilted to the ruling party, could proceed apace again.

A diminishing opposition would reduce the check and balance system, vital in a democracy so that not one party or coalition dominates the legislature.

selambau pkr pc 040409 saifuddin nasution PKR secretary-general Saifuddin Nasution ( left ) said the party and Pakatan  hoped to drive this crucial message to the voters of Hulu Selangor and Sibu.

“A win for Pakatan in both seats would deny BN inching its way closer towards regaining the pivotal two-thirds majority. A Pakatan loss would certainly be a boost for BN leader Najib Abdul Razak,” he said.

Defections in past

Certainly, the defection of Zahrain Hashim (Bayan Baru) on Feb 12, Tan Tee Beng (Nibong Tebal) on March 1 and Mohsin Fadzli Samsuri (Bagan Serai) several days later, all from PKR, had weakened the opposition.

In addition, Kulim Bandar Baru MP,  Zulkifli Noordin's expulsion from PKR had increased the share of independents in the house which initially comprised of only Ibrahim Ali (Pasir Mas).

The problem of defections is not only affecting the Dewan Rakyat, but also the state assembly, as proven by Thursday's Bakar Arang, Kedah representative Tan Wei Shu, resigning from the PKR.

With these two by-elections in mind, there will be an increase in attempts to bring about more defections or members leaving a party, as the psychological impact on the public and the parties involved will be enormous.

Just last year, the country had seen the sudden spate of defections in Perak bringing down the 11 month old Pakatan government.

A political observer said if this could happen in Perak within a month, and the defection of PKR legislators to become independents within a month this year, then for BN to get a two-thirds majority is not an unrealistic aim.

Najib consolidating position

Najib ( below ) is seen to have been consolidating his position since taking over from the unpopular Abdullah Ahmad Badawi administration, following the March 8, 2008 political tsunami.

NONE With Najib's approval rating in his first year of office soaring to 68 percent, these two by-elections can be seen as a yardstick to prove his administration has the approval of the people.

Saifuddin said although the opposition doubts that Najib’s approval rating is that high, it would certainly be used in the campaign to back BN's claims that it is getting back the support of the people.

“This is what we hope to disprove and thus frustrate BN. There has been a lot of grouses on the ground over Najib's policies. Even within Felda, which is the brainchild of Najib's father, there have been problems.

“This is what we are hoping to stress on in the Hulu Selangor contest and win the votes of the Malays in the Felda settlement. We hope by putting former minister Zaid Ibrahim as PKR's candidate, the settlers will vote for us,” he said.

Winning over the Felda settlers in Hulu Selangor would be of the utmost importance for PKR and Pakatan as in past elections, it has been a bastion for Umno.

Saifuddin said they just had to go show to the settlers there are problems within the settlement, and Felda and the government have not been doing enough to take care of their welfare.

“In other Felda schemes, there have been abuses, cheating of palm oil prices and land, and could happen here if not kept in check,” he said.

Palanieval snub, slap on Samy

DAP chairperson and Bukit Gelugor MP, Karpal Singh (below ) said that both by-elections would be significant  for both BN and Pakatan.

NONE “It could be seen to be a barometer for the upcoming 13th general elections and certainly, both sides would try and claim the upper hand. The federal government backed by its machinery, would certainly make its presence felt in Hulu Selangor and Sibu,” he said.

The DAP supremo does not think these by-elections are a test of the popularity of Najib but their significance lie more towards BN trying to gain a two-thirds majority.

“There are five independent MPs and there maybe a question over the SAPP lawmakers. All BN needs is another three or five more (depending on which party wins in Hulu Selangor and Sibu).

“However, by denying BN a majority would provide a stronger checks and balances,”  he said.

Commenting further on MIC's candidate P. Kamalanathan, Karpal said it is a clear slap for MIC president S Samy Vellu.

“He nominated Palanivel and another candidate is chosen. I think he should step down as MIC president as he does not have any influence in BN anymore,” he said.