Zaid needs young Malays out in full force

DAP stalwart Lim Kit Siang has set a tall order by estimating that Opposition standard-bearer Zaid Ibrahim needs at least 85 per cent of the Chinese votes in Hulu Selangor to win the Parliamentary seat tomorrow.

Sixty-five per cent is a safe bet, seventy to seventy-five per cent is possible. Anything more will be gambling on the odds.

Lim's voter projections appear to suggest that MIC candidate P. Kamalanathan can count on a majority of the Indian, Orang Asli and Malay votes and at least a third of the Chinese votes.

This will hand him victory by a slight margin and nothing more. Will it be by more than 106 votes, the winning margin the last time, or less?

Kamalanathan's gains so far are the result of him publicly embracing the Malay racist Perkasa while dismissing the anti-marginalisation Hindraf Makkal Sakthi, bending over so low in public to kiss Deputy Umno President Muhyiddin Yassin's hands and brazenly confessing that former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad was his "idol".

That has been enough for Mahathir to abandon his earlier announcement that he will stay out of Hulu Selangor and send him rushing to the seat.

How could he abandon one of his loyal "fans" in his hour of need?

BN's all-out push for victory

Mahathir's entry into the fray may also be an indication that victory is by no means assured for the BN.

Already, Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak himself has put in an appearance, unprecedented in a by-election.

Najib wanted the people to know that he's now advising US President Barrack Hussein Obama himself on matters of state, albeit after forking out RM 77 million to US Jewish lobbyists.

Next, if he could, Kamalanathan will declare that he wants henceforth to be known as Kamal al-Najib and will be defecting to Umno.

Logically, there's no reason for the Malay community to root for a lightweight Indian candidate, an unknown, against a Malay heavyweight.

If the Malays are looking ahead to building up more credible leaders for the community, then Zaid ( in white in photo ) is one of the answers.

Kamalanathan is just a nuisance factor that clouds right thinking in this process.

Fading away of mandore politics

Zaid may have been a 'kaki botol' in the past but that's what it is - in the past and a distant one at that in Umno for this Haji.

Spiritual Advisor Nik Aziz should enter at this juncture with one of his brilliant theological pronouncements that will silence the Umno spin doctors for good on the 'kaki botol' issue.

This is not a substantive issue.

Besides, it serves the Malays little purpose for them to keep MIC alive within the BN given the splintering of Indian votes since the 2008 general elections.

The Indians are not expected to be together again under one platform for the next 50 years and this means Umno has to abandon "mandore politics' and go back to the drawing board.

The Malays must also remember that the three state seats in Hulu Selangor are already with the BN. Why hand them the parliamentary seat as well and compromise the democratic process?

It's better not to put all of one's political eggs in one basket. Umno is no longer Malay and Malay is no longer Umno. PKR and PAS can make equal claims to represent the race.

  King should dethrone himself

Umno diehards can also ensure that the party lays claim to Hulu Selangor the next time by defeating the MIC candidate this time for good.

Kamalanathan can only expect a credible victory if MIC President for Life Samy Vellu dramatically announces that he's quitting the party with immediate effect and passing the baton to his deputy G. Palanivel.

Kamalanathan can then expect bonus Indian and Malay votes here. This is unlikely to happen since Samy thinks that he's King of the Indians and sees no need to abdicate.

Had it not been for caste persuasions among the Indians outside the underclass championed by Hindraf, MIC would have closed shop by now.

Here, it seems quite obvious that Zaid has to push for more non-Chinese votes and in particular among the young Malays, rather than gamble on the Chinese too much.

The only time any community came through with 85 per cent of their votes cast was among the Indians during the last general elections.

That's something unlikely to be repeated among any community in any future election.

Malaysians are becoming equally united and equally divided as the politics matures.

The only thing that makes a difference is registration of voters, the percentage of voter turnout and the extent of electoral fraud including the unauthorized transfer of voters by the Election Commission.

As former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad has shamelessly admitted, "All is fair and square in love, war and politics".

Should the opposition alliance not come through in Hulu Selangor, it must be prepared to turn to the Election Court to over-turn the result on the grounds of electoral fraud.

But it will be premature at this juncture to think along these lines.

Taking stock of developments so far, it's becoming increasingly obvious that outright buying of votes among the Orang Asli and Indians for the BN is taking their toll in Hulu Selangor as in Bagan Pinang.

The difficulty for the BN this time is that at 12,000 Indian votes, there are just too many of them to buy up unlike in Bagan Pinang which numbered less than 3,000.

The Orang Asli is an easier target. But who can fault them for taking the bait when they have been wallowing in the depths of despair and poverty for far too long for even their votes to make any difference in the past?

Even so, Orang Asli votes are increasingly likely to head in the direction of the opposition with every election.