Can Pakatan engineer a late swing?

With barely hours to go, Pakatan Rakyat, which has earlier been trailing in the opinion polls, is mounting a last-minute assault to swing voter sentiment in Hulu Selangor.

And judging by the warming response of the constituents to its ceramah, the opposition may just be able to pull it off.

Still, the BN appears to have the advantage as it has locked in most of its supporters, while its foe is banking its hopes on the 15,000 out-of-town voters expected to return tomorrow for the balloting.

Their eventual turnout will be dependent on the weather, traffic and a number of other factors.

Though initially bogged down over the choice of candidates, the BN was quick to put Pakatan on the back foot by launching an uglier-than-usual smear campaign.

Ugliest-ever smear campaign

The BN wasted no time in launching their attack, albeit indirectly through pro-Umno bloggers and the Umno-owned Utusan Malaysia , to paint PKR candidate Zaid Ibrahim as a drinker and a gambler.

Top BN leaders initially kept their hands clean of  these topics and left it to their ‘outsourced’ campaigners to do the dirty work, but in the later half of the campaign started taking part in the digs themselves .

As former Selangor menteri besar Mohd Khir Toyo correctly pointed out , the accusations initially left PAS in a quandary as to whether its conservative ideology would allow it to campaign wholeheartedly for its ally.

The Islamic party only confirmed its decision to give all out support to Zaid midway through the campaign period, deciding to focus its efforts on the Malay community which makes up 52 percent of the electorate.

The allegations against Zaid also caught the  PKR off-guard, resulting in the party’s leaders having to play defensive from nomination day.

                            

Even Pakatan de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim, who typically draws large crowds due to his Umno-bashing rhetoric, had to undertake extensive damage control for Zaid during his nightly ceramah.

Money talks, not issues

This has undoubtedly been a campaign of personal attacks, one where no substantive policies and issues have been debated.

The second half of the campaign saw money blatantly becoming BN’s major election currency, in complete disregard for electoral regulations.

                            

Yesterday alone, Prime Minister and BN chief Najib Razak handed out RM50,000 to some 100 Federal Land Development Authority (Felda) settlers while RM90,000 in cash was given to a Chinese cemetery in the constituency.

To top it off, Najib said this was merely the beginning and promised more goodies, but with a  caveat: more will come only if voters give BN a chance to rule Selangor again.

It has become nearly impossible to keep track of the amount of cash-handouts, promised allocations and other forms of incentives being dished out on a daily by the BN in canvassing votes.

Though the PKR-led state government can be accused of doing the same to some degree, and they are equally in the wrong to do so, their carrots have thus far paled in comparison.

Kamalanathan’s weaknesses ignored

In the beginning it appeared that PKR would have home advantage. After all, the state government has implemented a slew of new policies aimed at the lower-income groups since it took office in 2008.

These include providing free water, a senior citizens scheme, financial aid for single mothers, a special fund for Selangor-born residents (Selangor Born Heritage Fund, or Tawas) and cash for Selangor-born university graduates.

However, all three state assembly seats within Hulu Selangor are controlled by the BN, and constituents appear to be ignorant of such state-implemented schemes.

PKR also appears to have missed the boat by failing to capitalise on the glaring weaknesses of BN candidate P Kamalanathan.

Kamalanathan has been faring miserably in the media, failing to answer important questions and articulate himself on national issues, qualities critical for an aspiring federal lawmaker.

His clumsy attempt to prove his University qualifications from an Australian university added to the candidate’s list of minuses.

Kamalanathan has since published his certificate on his blog, but the local college acting on behalf of the university has been unable to provide documentary proof of his enrollment.

It also doesn't help that his certificate could not be verified on the university’s website.

Even more shocking was that Kamalanathan was found to be a registered voter in Sungai Siput - where his party boss S Samy Vellu stood for elections in 2008 - though he does not reside there. Although technically legal, the ethics of doing so is questionable.

These issues somehow escaped PKR’s main agenda.

In choosing instead to portray the by-election as a battle against a corrupt and racist Umno, PKR is ignoring the demographics of the constituency.

Consisting largely of rural folk more concerned about bread and butter issues, PKR’s arguments on Apco or missing jet engines caught little attention.

Zaid’s lacking public persona

                    

Despite his many weaknesses, Kamalanathan has excelled in his voters’ perception of his personality, whereas Zaid has been seen as lacking in that department.

Kamalanathan is an all-smiling, handshaking-machine and this appears to have struck a chord amongst the rural folk regardless of ethnicity.

Zaid on the other hand has been described as awkward and aloof when meeting the electorate, barely making eye-contact or small talk.

Regardless of his shining career resume, the PKR candidate’s public persona may not endear him to the voters.    

In the end, the race for Hulu Selangor is far from over, and a lot hinges on the final hours of the campaigning today and the voter turnout tomorrow.