When things fell apart for PKR

news analysis PKR has been left scratching its head over the defeat of its candidate Zaid Ibrahim in the Hulu Selangor by-election last Sunday.

On paper, everything seemed to be going fine for the coalition. The three component parties - PKR, PAS and DAP - worked together under what appeared to be an unprecedented singular chain of command.

Turnouts at their ceramah in urban areas easily raked in thousands of appreciative ears. PKR, apart from having the upper hand of incumbency, also had the Pakatan Rakyat state government at its disposal.

BN, meanwhile, had struggled to even decide on a candidate in the run-up to nomination day.

But everything seemed to fall apart from the word ‘go’. Right after the nominations were filed, evidently doctored pictures of Zaid drinking alcohol emerged in the blogosphere. This evolved into a full-scale attack and then an all-out smear campaign.

Many PKR leaders insisted, and still do, that those attacks had no bearing on the Malay-majority semi-rural constituency where they make up close to 54 percent of the electorate - 7,000 of them live in Felda settlements.

PKR elections director Fuziah Salleh said feedback from Malay voters has shown that Zaid's past indiscretions, to which he openly admitted, did not have much impact on the ground.

“The Muslims understand that what's past is past. And they know when someone has reformed and repented,” she said when contacted.

“We were prepared, Zaid was prepared. We knew that BN would use their entire machinery on this.”

PKR deputy president Syed Husin Ali confirmed that Zaid's portfolio has been vetted thoroughly and that his credibility as a candidate has been scrutinised beforehand.

Even PAS spiritual adviser Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat went straight to Hulu Selangor after an eight-hour flight from Mecca to vouch for Zaid's character.

Zaid's “aloof” image also came under attack, with many saying that, personality-wise, he did not stand a chance against that ever-smiling, hand-shaking machine, P Kamalanathan of BN.

PKR dismissed this, saying the false perception was generated by the BN camp.

Conscious choice

Still, even before nomination day, many had questioned the wisdom of fielding Zaid in the parliamentary constituency, where the biggest town is Kuala Kubu Baru. It is more known for its waterfall and Chinese-Western cuisine.

Zaid has projected his image as that of a liberal. His views on many issues have been well-documented including the hudud law (he is against it), the wanton use of the Internal Security Act (he resigned his cabinet post for it),  and affirmative action for Malays (he says he doesn't need it).

“We took into consideration every factor. We knew the baggage that he had. That decision stands. We're not retracting,” said Fuziah when asked if, on hindsight, Zaid would have been fielded.

Selangor Menteri Besar Khalid Ibrahim  said the party could have selected other candidates.

“But we knew that he was the right one, and he could have brought development to the constituency,” said Khalid.

In fact, party leaders as well as the Selangor government have given him the green light to adopt Hulu Selangor as a pet project despite his defeat, insisting that he still heads the task force on Felda settlers' rights.

‘Najib factor’

While many can blame the machinery, the Election Commission, and even ‘dirty tricks’ allegedly deployed by BN, one cannot deny that “goodies” promised by the federal government were enough to swing fence-sitters.

Four new schools were promised, while millions of ringgit were to be poured into flood-mitigation projects and infrastructural repairs.

But nothing says victory like cold hard cash in one’s hands, namely RM50,000 in backdated compensation to 363 Felda settlers after their land was acquired by a housing developer, whose project failed to take off.

“If that is not vote-buying, I don't know what is,” said Fuziah, who is also Kuantan MP.

Political analyst James Chin (left) , who famously said two weeks ago that he had put all his money on Zaid's win unless major scandals were uncovered, noted that it was only during the last leg of campaigning - when all the multi-million ringgit projects were announced - that opinions started shifting.

“If you look at the announcement from Wednesday to Friday (before the polling day last Sunday), there were already RM40 million worth of allocations announced,” he said.

Chin also said it was Prime Minister and BN chairperson Najib Abdul Razak's mere presence at the tail-end of the campaign that further turned the situation awry for PKR.

“(Najib) made this a fight between himself and Zaid. The moment Najib came back from Tokyo on Wednesday, he jumped straight into the (campaign), saying that the election was about him.

“He spun the whole thing into a 1Malaysia referendum, when reality was that it was between Kamalanathan and Zaid.”

Chin also observed that BN managed to capture 60 percent of the Indian vote by keeping MIC president S Samy Vellu (right) out of the limelight.

“Kamalanathan was always seen with (deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin) or Najib. I have not seen a picture of Kamalanathan with Samy Vellu in Utusan Malaysia throughout campaigning,” he said.

It was also interesting that, although conspiracy theories abounded before nominations, it did not blunt the BN campaign.

One theory was that Umno divisional warlords would vote against Kamalanathan - and hence MIC - to ensure that the seat goes back to their party. Another theory was that supporters of one-time frontrunner for candidacy G Palanivel would protest.

“BN somehow managed to close ranks,” said Chin.

Spotlight on Khalid

Hulu Selangor will be a lesson for many. Umno will rethink the amount of money poured into a by-election with a return of only a majority of 1,725 votes.

And PKR will rethink about retaining MB Khalid Ibrahim (wearing songkok in photo) as state election machinery head.

Various PKR leaders have said he was not “hands on” in leading the party machinery.

“He was too busy. A lot of people could get away with telling him that they had done something when they had not,” claimed a PKR leader who refused to be named.

Another party insider said that, while Khalid was good at formalising logistics, he was too inexperienced as a politician to think of political strategies in the by-election.

“In a by-election, there has to be a clear chain of command,” said the insider.

Now that party workers are easing back into their normal life, much work will still have to be done on the ground in finding out on why PKR lost Hulu Selangor.

They need to know, lest Pakatan loses the entire state government in the next general election.

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REGINA LEE is a member of the Malaysiakini team.