Global fish stocks may not keep pace with population growth, a shortfall that could have disastrous consequences for more than one billion people in developing countries, the WorldFish Center and the International Food Policy Research Institute warned today.

"As wild fishery resources decline it will have significant impacts on food security, nutrition and income levels in developing countries as fish become more scarce and expensive over the next two decades," they said in a joint-statement based on new findings.

Experts said fish was the primary source of animal protein for roughly one sixth of the world's people and contributed about seven percent of the world's total food supply.

The WorldFish Centre, based in Penang, would host a one-day meeting on "Fish for All," on Sunday.

At the summit policy makers, scientists, industry leaders and activists from some 40 countries would participate in discussions including those on the impact of fishing on marine ecosystem and effect of climate change on fish stocks.

Price hike

Economists say if fish numbers rose at an annual rate just 0.4 percent less than global population through 2020, prices could rise between four to 16 percent depending on the species.

But if there was a major downturn in fish supplies prices could rocket by between 26 percent and 70 percent.

"Fish is the fastest growing source of food in the developing world yet demand greatly exceeds supply and the problem is growing," said Merly Williams, director-general of the WorldFish Center.

"Almost three-quarters of the 130 million tons extracted in 2000 came from fish stocks already depleted, over fished or fully exploited. Many of the stressed fish stocks will not be able to produce even at current levels, let alone cope with the increase in demand that results from 90 million more mouths to feed every year," she said.

Price hike

At the summit participants would inaugurate a new global forum to air and resolve international fisheries issues and launch a decade-long-effort — "The Fish for All Initiative" — dedicated to raising international understanding of fisheries issues.

The WorldFish Centre said in coming years some species would disappear from markets, the quality of seafood would decline and conflicts between and within countries would increase.

It said most growth would occur in developing countries which would account for 79 percent of global food fish production in 2020. They presently account for 65 percent of global food fish production.

China's share of world production would continue to expand, while that of Japan, the European Union, and the former USSR would continue to fall.

"Growing domestic demand will dampen fish exports from developing countries, only Latin America will export a significant share of 35 percent production," the centre said.

Protein for the poor

India's M S Swaminathan, the Unesco Cousteau Chair in Ecotechnology, described fish as the protein of the poor.

"But to meet demand, as world population grows from six to an expected 8.5 billion people in 2025, fish production would have to double in the next 25 years," he said.

Swaminathan said aquaculture offered a partial solution to the need for higher productivity but "can we do this in a sustainable way without harming the environment and will the poor benefit." — AFP