It will be "Anwar factor" vs "fear factor" in next Monday's elections. How this will be played out, only time will tell. However, it does not stop political pundits from giving their two sens worth on what is likely to happen.

Forecasting the results of an election is much like predicting the scoreline of a football match. Favourites and underdogs aside, one can never quite be sure who will be victorious until the final whistle is blown. In the electoral game, it is often those in the stands who switch sides that will largely influence the final outcome, not the hardcore supporters.

Thus, to make a credible prediction on the elections, one must look at factors that contribute to a voter's decision to switch camps. No doubt, some of the key factors in Monday's elections include the wave of sympathy for sacked deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim and the fear of unrest and instability should BN fail to win big. How these issues will affect the uncommited voter will ultimately determine the result.

Malaysia, however, does not have a tradition of keeping track on voter swing. Malaysiakini in this news analysis will attempt to do a rudimentary assessment of the voter swing in a bid to gauge how the two sides will fare. The percentage of voter swing required for a seat to change hands is based on a simple calculation: divide the margin of the majority with the total valid votes cast in the seat at the last election, and then divide that figure by half.

For example, in 1995 the BN candidate in PJ Selatan, Donald Lim, won by a majority of 11,625 votes out of a total of 42,478 valid votes against PRM President Syed Husin Ali. Hence the majority in percentage terms is 11,625 divided by 42,478, which equals 27%.

Slightly over half of these voters who voted for BN in 1995 must switch to the Opposition for the seat to change hands. Hence, Syed Husin must win over at least 13.6% of voters who previously favoured the BN as well as to hold on to those who last voted for him in order to wrest control of the seat.

Of course, if Syed Husin was to win just over 13.6% voters of previous BN voters, his margin of victory will be tissue thin -- Syed Husin will have 50.1% while Lim will have 49.9% of the votes cast.

There is enough anecdotal evidence, backed up by a couple of polls, which indicates that both the "Anwar factor" and "fear factor" will have some impact on voters. A poll commissioned by The Star early this month showed that 63% of those interviewed chose BN, while 37% backed the Opposition. However, the accuracy of the poll is debatable. Nearly 42% of those approached said they were still undecided.

Perhaps this is partly due to the "fear factor" where Malaysians are uneasy about proclaiming their support for the Opposition to strangers. More interestingly, the poll did pick out a clear split among the Malay voters. Some 48% gave their votes to the Opposition with PAS being the main beneficiary with 33%. In contrast, 74% of the Chinese voters backed BN.

A telephone poll done by Chinese newspaper China Press on Nov 23-24 of 205 readers found that 56.1% supported BN while 43.9% backed the opposition. This survey gives an indication on how the Chinese community, considered the kingmakers in this elections and actively wooed by both coalitions, will vote on Monday. Again the poll may not be accurate since it was not a random sampling: readers called in to give their preferences to the newspaper.

We predict that the "Anwar factor" will result in some 15% to 20% of previously pro-BN Malay voters to switch to the Barisan Alternatif. Among the non-Malay community, the "fear factor" should ensure that the swing to BA in this election remains marginal. Below is a table of parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia, categorised according to racial composition and the swing required for the seats to change hands. The seats in dark green are those currently held by BA and the others are seats held by BN.

 

Swing required (%) 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Parliament seats Barisan Alternatif Barisan Nasional
Above 70% Malay voters

(Total: 51 seats)

6 2 2 15 7 1 2 7 3 6 Between 50% -70% Malay voters

(Total: 49 seats)

- - - 1 1 2 10 7 12 16 Between 50% -70% non-Malay voters (Total: 26 seats) 1 - - 1 1 3 8 8 2 2 Above 70% non- Malay voters

(Total: 18 seats)

3 4 1 3 4 1 1 1 - - Total seats: 144 10 6 3 20 13 7 21 23 17 24

If a swing of 15% of Malay voters is registered, BA is likely to pick up all the seats in the light green boxes. In this event, BA will probably bag a total of 25 seats in constituencies with more than 70% Malay voters. Among seats with between 50% and 70% Malay voters, we expect a swing of about 10%, thus delivering BA with another two seats.

In seats where the non-Malays make up between 50% and 70% of the voters, we expect a swing of 5% (1 seat for BA) and the position is also likely to pick up another seat which BN won uncontested in the last elections (PJ Utara in Selangor). In total, the opposition should win a total of 45 seats in Peninsular Malaysia. This, of course, falls short of the 65 seats BA needs to win to deny BN its two-third majority in Parliament.

To do that, BA will need to win another 20 seats in East Malaysia in cooperation with PBS. It is, however, unlikely since in the last elections, PBS won only eight seats while DAP won one seat. Thus, with a voter swing of 15% of Malay voters, BA will not be able to deny BN its two-thirds majority. However, a swing of 20% of Malay voters will get BA closer to its goals.

To form government, the BA has to produce a hefty swing of 25% among the Malay voters in addition to at least 10% swing among the non-Malay voters. In that scenario, the BA will need to win a further 32 seats (the grey boxes) resulting in a total of 77 seats. Even then, they will need to pick up some 20 seats in Sabah and Sarawak to gain the minimum of 97 seats needed to for government. However, a 30% swing among Malay voters, accompanied by a 15% swing of non-Malay voters, will mean a BA government.

Put simply, only a massive swing involving both the Malay and non-Malay communities can dislodge the BN government. The "fear factor", no doubt, will keep the swing among the Chinese voters to a minimum. Winning government is possible but realistically it is going to be very difficult. However, denying BN the two-third majority is achievable.

BN will be hard pressed to repeat its 1995 election results -- its best ever. How much of a dent BA makes to the overwhelming BN majority in Parliament will depend on how much the "Anwar factor" and the "fear factor" affects the decision of voters in the run up to Monday polls.