ANALYSIS The winds of change may possibly blow into Belaga , the rural seat located upstream the Rejang river, because of the devastating impact of the newly constructed Bakun dam.

However, any hope for change has to battle rampant money politics and the family network of the candidates who, engaged in a six-way fight, would probably prevent the Orang Ulu seat from falling into opposition hands.

NONE The constituency as large as Pahang with 8,463 voters, is one of the most heavily contested seats.

Battling incumbent Liwan Lagang for the seat are Ali Basah Kesing from PKR, John Bampa from Snap and three independents - Michael Jok from the yet-to-be-registered Parti Ekonomi Rakyat Sarawak Bersatu (PERSB), Kenneth Adan Silek and Mathew Munan.

Half of the voters reside in Sungai Asap, a resettlement area comprising indigenous people relocated from areas affected by Bakun dam's construction, where sentiment has been simmering over many unresolved issues caused by the relocation.

Lagang from PRS nearly lost the seat when he made his debut in the last state polls. He was saved by a split of votes between an independent and Snap's candidate, totalling 2,540 compared to the 1,855 votes he bagged.

Belaga is one of the four seats that PRS president James Masing said BN is in danger of losing.

PM visit brought no joy

Although Prime Minister Najib Razak visited the area in January this year, he failed to address many of the problems arising from the Bakun relocation.

NONE During his visit, Najib ( with cap in photo ) had announced several measures to ease the plight of people, amongst them allocating RM5 million into the Bakun trust fund, writing off the RM41 million balance of the housing loans of the 1,500 relocated families and allocating RM6.5 million to build a road connecting Belaga town and the federal road.

However the premier overlooked issues of housing, land and compensation of crops, that were the main concerns of the locals.

According to PKR Simpang Pulai assemblyperson Chan Ming Kai who is campaigning for Kesing at Belaga, the impoundment of the Bakun dam has reduced the river level, with devastating impact to the residents' livelihoods.

One of the results of the lower river level is that the three-hour river ride from Belaga to Kapit, the nearest administrative town, now takes a shocking two days.

Going by land is no easier; a day's journey entailing a three-hour drive on the untarred logging route to reach the nearest federal road, followed by a 90-minute drive to Bintulu and then another four-hour drive to Sibu before they can reach Kapit.

"Therefore Belaga is a highly winnable seat," said Chan.

Six way fight not main hurdle

Chan pointed out that PKR's machinery in Belaga is well rooted and functioning without the help from outsiders. He is the only reinforcement the party leadership has sent to help in the campaign.

NONE However their candidate Kesing's biggest challenge is convincing the disgruntled voters not to split their votes among other non-BN candidates.

Two of the three Independents - Jok and Kennet, are likely to split PKR votes because they were once very active in the party.

Another PKR campaigner believed the six-way fight would not be the main hurdle as PKR had managed to mobilise around 200 supporters on nomination day, overshadowing the other independents.

PKR also claimed that Bampa from Snap has not been servicing the people after he lost in the last state polls.

Chan believes the real issue is the family network of the various candidates and money politics.

He has observed that Belaga constituents who reside in longhouses still practice tribal politics and cast their votes largely based on blood relationship.

"For instance, Bampa secured over 900 votes in the last state polls but 300 of them came from a particular longhouse where his family is staying," said Chan.

Therefore compared with the public ceramah and cyber-campaigning the opposition has adopted in the urban seats, the campaign in Belaga has to go back to the basic - house-to-house visits and mini-gatherings that offer a more 'personal touch' and interaction with the voters.

Vote buying and corporate pressure

Another of PKR's concerns is the alleged vote-buying by BN and pressure on voters through private companies aligned to the ruling party.

NONE "Money politics is not just distributing handouts. Many villagers are working in plantations and forests that belong to big companies. This may hinder them from demanding change," Chan explained.

During his visit to Belaga yesterday, Rural and Regional Development Minister Shafie Apdal ( left ) announced an RM45.48 million allocation to upgrade the water and electric supply as well as houses in the area.

Election watchdog MEO-Net has also cited an allegation from the blog Belagakini , that BN had given election goodies to voters on nomination day including free fuel and mattresses.

Malaysiakini attempted to contact BN candidate Lagang by phone and SMS to clarify the matter, but to no avail.

NONE Some locals pointed out that Lagang is a "nice guy" who once presented the people's problems to Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud during the latter's visit to Belaga. His good standing in the area may earn him some votes.

However independent candidate Jok  ( left) stressed that any assemblyperson would not be able to solve the people's problems as long as they are part of the BN regime.

"Voting for Lagang is equal to allowing Taib to grab our land," he said when contacted by Malaysiakini .