ANALYSIS Australia is so confident its planned people swap with Malaysia would deter boats of undocumented immigrants from leaving Indonesia that it is budgeting for only 750 asylum seekers arriving in the coming financial year.

More than 5,000 undocumented arrivals have already made the crossing so far this fiscal year, which ends June 30.

Confidence comes from a belief the people-go-round deal would see those mostly Middle Easterns arrive in Australia via people-smuggling boats only to be flown to Kuala Lumpur where, for most of them, their journey through South-East Asia began months or even years earlier.

“If someone seeks to come to Australia, then they’re at risk of going to Malaysia and going to the back of the queue,” Prime Minister Julia Gillard said last month when announcing the outline of the agreement.

At the front of queue in Malaysia are those already assessed by the United Nations as genuine refugees. They number more than 90,000 and are mostly Burmese refugees who came across the border from Thailand.

Under the deal, 4,000 refugees would be exchanged for 800 of the mostly Afghans, Iranians and Iraqis arriving by boat in Australia.

Gillard said she hopes the deal would break the business model of the people smugglers by denying those paying them for a passage the resettlement in Australia they are seeking. There are thousands in Indonesia waiting to cross the Indian Ocean.

Gillard’s belief is that injecting uncertainty into the outcome would stop them boarding the fishing boats that people smugglers use as part of the illicit travel arrangements.

The deal has yet to be signed. If Malaysia were to walk away from it, the political implications for Gillard would be profound.

The government is accused by opposition Liberal Party immigration spokesperson Scott Morrison of losing control of Australia’s borders and being intimidated by undocumented arrivals relying on the humanity of their hosts.

“Detention centres have become overcrowded, tensions have risen, there’ve been riots, there’ve been bombs, there’ve been guards injured and hospitalised - that’s what’s happening in our detention network,” Morrison claimed.

Tough and kindly at the same time

The domestic politics of the issue require the government to appear tough and kindly at the same time.

Gillard said the 800 would “go to the back of a very long queue” and not receive special treatment. Officials pledged that none would ever qualify for resettlement in Australia.

Malaysia holds all the trump cards. It is unlikely to sign an agreement that requires the 800 to be treated differently from the 90,000 asylum seekers it already hosts.

The agreement, which Canberra said is still “weeks away,” would be closely scrutinised by the UN.

Richard Towle, the regional representative of the UN’s High Commissioner for Refugees, said, “Negotiations are ongoing and we would expect to see included in the agreement adequate protection and human-rights principles for the treatment of asylum seekers and refugees.”

Malaysia, not a signatory to UN conventions on refugees, clearly has the whip hand. It is a five-for-one swap, 4,000 refugees are guaranteed to go to Australia regardless of how many of the 800 asylum seekers arrive in Malaysia and, tellingly, Canberra is picking up the entire bill.

Australia would argue that desperate situations require desperate remedies and would not bother much about the criticism the agreement will likely receive from the UN.

- dpa