Last Monday's decision by the Supreme Council, Umno's highest decision-making body, has decidedly put Deputy Premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi one step closer to the real seat of power. The council nominated the soft-spoken, low-profile Abdullah for the party deputy president position, and to set its decision in cement, the council had also unanimously agreed on a no-contest resolution for the party's top two posts. This means that barring any major revolt from the party grassroots, Abdullah will be the sole candidate for the No. 2 post come Umno elections on May 11.

Following the council's decisions, a growing number of political analysts believe that Abdullah now stands a good chance of succeeding Mahathir Mohamad as Umno president, and become the next prime minister. Mahathir, who had thrown his weight around Abdullah, had indicated last month that he expected Umno to back the deputy premier as his successor.

While the no-contest ruling is widely interpreted as a stop-gap measure to curb excessive factional infighting within Umno, Abdullah's nomination, according to some political observers, is also designed to win back Malay support in the wake of the party's dismal showing in the recent polls.

Although the ruling Barisan Nasional retained the psychologically crucial two-thirds parliamentary majority in the general elections, Umno has however suffered an unprecedented setback. It retained only 72 of the 94 seats it held in the last Parliament, and lost an additional state to PAS.

"This is a strategic move to regain the support of the Malays, and Abdullah is the right man to do it because he is a moderate politician who can gain a broad consensus," said Abdul Razak Baginda, head of the Malaysian Strategic Research Centre.

Former University Malaya vice-chancellor Professor Ungku Aziz agreed. He said that Abdullah, an ex-civil servant who had been criticised as being uncharismatic and docile, is seen as the best candidate to mend the fray ties between Umno and the Malay electorate.

"Abdullah has some support from the grassroots, especially the civil servants from the northern regions," he said. "He is quiet. But that is because it is his style," said Ungku Aziz, adding that Abdullah offered Malaysians a kind of leadership that is calm and not too flamboyant.

While the few political analysts interviewed by malaysiakini agree that Abdullah does not generate earth-shattering ideas, they however believe that Abdullah would be able to provide the party and the country a certain sense of continuity in the post-Mahathir era.

In addition, Mahathir would not expect any disruption from Abdullah in his last few remaining years as leader.

"Abdullah is a party loyalist who will not challenge Mahathir's leadership. He is a technocrat. He obeys orders," said Professor Zakaria Ahmad, head of the Strategic and Security Studies, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia.

Although Abdullah backed Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah in his bid to wrest power from Mahathir in 1987, he had been unflinchingly loyal since the premier brought him back from the political wilderness eight years ago by appointing him foreign minister.

Baginda argued that Abdullah's election as deputy president by the assembly could pave the way for Mahathir, who is in his 19th year as Umno president, to step down. Mahathir had recently announced that this would be his last term in office.

Going by that assumption, Abdullah would have three years to consolidate his position within the party before the next general elections, Baginda said.

Ungku Aziz, however, said Abdullah's position in the post-Mahathir era might still be wobbly. Political rivals, he said, would also make time to strengthen their position within Umno.

Asked whether Abdullah would make a deal with the supporters of one-time heir apparent Anwar Ibrahim to strengthen his position in Umno, he said it would be unlikely.

"Mahathir started the Anwar issue and he would wrap up the issue before he steps down," he said. "He will not leave it to Abdullah to deal with the Anwar factor."