The imminent retirement of Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad is part of a sweeping political makeover across East Asia, where a new generation of leaders is taking charge.

Mahathir, 77, who came to power in 1981 when Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher and Leonid Brezhnev dominated the global stage, will step down on Friday and hand over his job to his deputy Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, 63.

Over the next 18 months, presidential or parliamentary elections are expected to take place in Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia. Singapore is also preparing for a leadership change.

While some analysts see the widespread shakeup as a positive development, others fret over the scope and speed of the transition.

"Change of any kind is destabilising. In particular, leadership change," political scientist Bilveer Singh, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore, told AFP .

"What is frightening is that leadership changes are taking place at a time of great political, economic, strategic and social-cultural uncertainties."

Peaceful changeover

But Rodolfo Severino, the former secretary-general of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), disagreed.

"Not so long ago, such a string of imminent or potential changes in leadership would have set off attacks of uncertainty and apprehensions of political turmoil, if not violent upheaval," the veteran Filipino diplomat said.

"And yet, this time, the prospect of change is anticipated with calmness," he said, adding that relatively orderly elections, even in a country like Cambodia, "seem to foreshadow a period of political stability in Southeast Asia."

The World Bank also noted in a recent report that "instead of creating major tensions, the many elections and political transitions in the region over the next 18 months will tend to strengthen overall political legitimacy and stability."

Mahathir outlasted contemporaries like the late Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos and Indonesia's ousted strongman Suharto, 82, and will follow the lead of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew, 80, who stepped down as prime minister 13 years ago.

But unlike Lee, who has stayed on as a senior minister, Mahathir vows to quit the government totally.

Marcos, Suharto, Mahathir and Lee all belonged to a political generation whose world view was shaped by colonialism, World War II and the Cold War.

They were instrumental in turning Asean, originally founded as an anti-communist alliance, into a key player in international politics, while at home they ruled with an iron hand.

Younger replacements

They are being replaced by a different breed of younger leaders exemplified by Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, 54, Philippine President Gloria Arroyo, 56, and Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri, 56.

In Singapore, Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, 62, has declared plans to step down by 2005 or earlier in favor of his deputy Lee Hsien Loong, 51, son of the former prime minister.

In Northeast Asia, the new generation includes Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, 52, South Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun, 57, and China's President Hu Jintao, 60, and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, 61.

The first semester of 2004 will be a hectic period in Asia's political calendar.

Taiwan's presidential polls will be held in March. Indonesia and South Korea will hold parliamentary elections in April and the Philippines will vote for its president in May.

In July, Indonesia will hold its first-ever direct presidential election. A run-off poll would be held in September if no candidate secured at least 51 percent of the total vote in the first round.

Unprecedented move

South Korea's embattled President Roh has put his job on the line in an unprecedented referendum on his rule in December following a graft scandal, and vowed to step down if the vote goes against him.

Hong Kong's Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa, 66, who was virtually handpicked by Beijing since the end of British rule in 1997, is under pressure from pro-democracy groups demanding direct elections for the leader of the territory.

Political scientist Singh was particularly concerned about Asean, whose like-minded, patriarchal leaders evolved a consensual style which enabled member countries to set aside serious differences in order to achieve peace, stability and economic cooperation.

"There is no guarantee that the new leaders will follow the pace and path set by their predecessors," Singh said. "If anything, if the home front is in trouble, they might become even more nationalistic." - AFP