Sarawak round-up Not unlike the general expectation of the election results in Barisan Nasional-ruled neighbouring Sabah to the north, the outcome of the parliamentary elections in Sarawak can be said to be a foregone conclusion - that the state's ruling coalition will romp home without much difficulty.

There are only two questions: Will the state BN comprising Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu (PBB), Sarawak United People's Party (Supp), Sarawak Progressive Demoratic Party (SPDP) and fragments of the de-registered Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak (PBDS) repeat their 1999 performance by retaining all 28 parliamentary seats?

If not, how many seats can fall to the opposition, including the Sarawak National Party (Snap), which recently saw itself stripped of its BN membership, after its de-registration (which is now challenged in court) and Independents, if any?

That no one sees the Sarawak BN, led by long-serving Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud, is in any imminent danger of even losing more than half a dozen seats clearly acknowledges the unassailable or formidable position of the coalition of home-grown political parties.

The state BN is so deeply entrenched in the social, economic, cultural and political life of Sarawak society that it has become a fortress that a group of opposition parties, unable even to agree on an electoral pact to avoid competing against each other, can hardly be expected to do serious battle with.

At best, most political analysts agree, the opposition parties such as Snap, Democratic Action Party (DAP), Parti Keadilan Rakyat, State Reform Party (Star) and PAS can in their separate ways pick on pockets of disgruntlement or discontent to exploit and to try and swing votes in the favour of their candidates. But will it be enough to win?

Big area to campaign

It is not going to be easy for the opposition to campaign for votes in sparsely populated Sarawak with a population of 2.2 million people spread over an area of 123,000 sq kilometers or almost as large as all the 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia put together.

As one political scientist has observed: "The BN is formidable in Sarawak. That is why even certain nationalist-minded Dayak leaders of PBDS are not prepared to go the same way as Snap and prefer to continue to work for the betterment of their community from within the ruling BN."

He sees the threat to the State BN as more likely to come from within.

'The BN in Sarawak may be undermined from within by the feudal-style leadership and to a certain extent the opposition parties, especially Snap which could have an impact on the rural electorate with its new role now.'

This election is a test of sort for the new leaders of Snap who believe they could bring back the party's old glory through public sympathy of the 1970s when it won 18 out of 48 state seats as an opposition before it was invited to join the BN.

Even before Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi recently confirmed that Snap was out of the BN, the party had openly questioned Taib's 'Politics of Development,' saying that in reality the rural community had not benefitted from it.

There is unhappiness on the ground with government's policies on land development which many Dayaks say are encroaching on their traditional rights and customs.

According to former Baram member of parliament and social activist Harrison Ngau, now a Miri-based practicing lawyer, there are about 100 cases brought to court by customary rights claimants against the government.

"Hardly anyone in BN in the past spoke out publicly against government's policies on land development (for reforestation and oil palm plantations). Anyone who capitalises on this is certain to draw a lot of attention during the campaigning in longhouses," according to one political observer.

When this happens, it could put the Dayak-based BN parties or parties drawing their support from rural Dayak-based electorate on the defensive, he added.

Snap after five seats

Snap is going for at least five parliamentary seats, four of which (Mas Gading, Saratok, Bintulu and Baram) are now in the hands of SPDP, formed immediately after the de-registration of Snap in November 2002 and admitted into the BN soon after that.

The fifth seat is Hulu Rajang (now held by BN's Billy Abit Joo of the PBDS group) with Snap already announcing that its deputy president and former MP Justine Jinggut is to be fielded.

The present Snap leaders are relatively new on the ground and not seen in the same light as past leaders like Stephen Kalong Ningkan, Sarawak's first chief minister, Dunstan Endawie and James Wong Kim Min who were also closely identified with the party's early struggle before and after Independence.

There may be little nostalgia for Snap in the realities of politics in today's Sarawak, according to a seasoned political analyst.

"But nearly everyone agrees that it is time that there is a new platform for people to speak out against social injustices and policies that have caused so much disquiet on the ground among certain communities," he added.

'That could very well be created by Snap in its return to the opposition role as in the later part of the 19 60s and first part of the 1970s.'

"Within the BN, there is little tolerance for disagreement or dissent, and anyone who as much as tries to work outside the so-called norm is usually branded an opposition," said a Snap youth leader.

Snap president Edwin Dundang ( left ), who took over as president when James Wong stepped down last year, is confident "the party will provide the platform that is needed to help address social injustices and to bring fairness and justice to the system for the good of the community in Sarawak."

His recent call for an overhauling of the state BN set-up and his criticisms of the 'Politics of Development' upset not only Taib but also came under strong public attack by some of Taib's senior cabinet colleagues, including Deputy Chief Minister Dr George Chan, Environment and Public Health Minister William Mawan and Social Development and Urbanisation Minister Dr James Masing.

Star still fighting

Not to be underrated in the battle for rural votes is the small but still active State Reform Party (Star) led by the maverick former Snap senior vice president Dr Patau Rubis, a former state assistant minister sacked by Taib on grounds of alleged indiscipline and expelled later from Snap in the mid 1990s.

Formed in 1996, the party has proven it could garner a lot of support from among the Bidayuh community in Kuching Division.

Although none of its candidates won, Star performed credibly in Bidayuh-majority seats such as Mas Gading, Mambong and Serian.

In a recent interview with malaysiakini , Patau ( left ) said the party is committed to a long-term struggle to change the mindset of the rural electorate, and it is not out for immediate victory at the polls.

Star has confirmed it will contest in at least three seats Mas Gading, Mambong and Serian and has identified the candidates as well. So far his call for an electoral understanding among opposition parties has fallen on deaf ears.

Peninsular Malaysia-based DAP's presence in Sarawak is well-established since its first entry into Sarawak in the late 1970s. Its leaders knocked off two of Supp top leaders the late Stephen Yong Kuet Tze and Dr Wong Soon Kai -- in past polls.

Recovering from the shock and realising what they had done, the Chinese electorate didn't let DAP languish in their victory indefinitely at subsequent polls they turned in full force to make sure BN-Supp candidates would not go down to DAP which has found a come-back in Sarawak not so easy anymore.

DAP only after Supp

Said a local university social science lecturer: "DAP's only interest in Sarawak is to knock off Supp leaders. But Supp has been able to fend this off through the party leaders' close links to the various Chinese social, cultural and educational bodies, and through its relationship with members of Chinese chambers of commerce and industry."

With opposition parties like DAP and Keadilan unable to come to any meaningful electoral understanding and with Supp's close links with social, cultural and educational groups within the Chinese community and the intricate business connections, DAP is finding the Supp's fortress in Sarawak quite impenetrable.

Would it make a dent somewhere this time? If so, where?

In Bandar Kuching parliamentary seat, Sarawak's premier Chinese seat, newcomer Senator Wee Kok Tiong, 44, ( left ) son of the well-known Sarawak businessman the late Wee Boon Ping, is expected to face some tough competition from both DAP and Keadilan.

But victory for BN is assured if the opposition continues to be split which looks almost certain since both DAP and Keadilan are not willing to give way.

The former incumbent BN-Supp MP Song Swee Guan won the seat twice. In the 1999 elections, Song won by a huge margin of 8389 votes by polling 18,239 votes against his nearest opponent Independent Dominique Ng Kim Ho who polled 9850 votes while the DAP candidate Chong Chieng Jen polled only 5913 votes.

Supp secretary-general Sim Kheng Hui said the party would not want to be lulled into complacency, saying the threat from the opposition, especially DAP and Keadilan, would be taken seriously.

Other than Kuching, DAP is also contesting in Stampin, Sarikei, Lanang, Sibu, Bintulu and Miri.

Bintulu is where DAP sees its candidate as possibly having a good chance of being returned. It is widely expected to field Chiew Chin Sing, the sole opposition state assemblyperson (Kidurong) who is a popular figure. Chiew is determined to win the Bintulu seat which he held before losing narrowly to BN's Tiong King Sing in the 1999 elections.

But if Snap decides to go ahead and field a private medical practitioner, it could act as a spoiler for opposition chances as it would certain to mean a split in the opposition vote.

Keadilan and Malay voters

Another question is whether Keadilan can be expected to fare just as well if not better in the predominantly-Malay parliamentary constituencies in Kuching. In the last elections, two of its candidates sent shockwaves when they came near to almost toppling the BN-PBB candidates.

PBB's Rohani Abdul Karim polled 7955 votes in Santubong against Keadilan's Husaini bin Hamdan who secured 6060 votes while the then Agriculture Minister Dr Sulaiman Haji Daud ( photo ) found his majority reduced to only 2870 votes when he polled 11,878 votes in Petra Jaya right in the Kuching Malay heartland against Keadilan's Wan Zainal Wan Sanusi who managed an unexpected 9008 votes.

Since then much of the problems leading to Malay unhappiness on the ground have been addressed with the help of PBB deputy president and a highly-respected Malay politician Abang Johari Tun Openg, who is state tourism minister and son of Sarawak's post independence Governor Tun Abang Haji Openg.

Abang Johari is confident that the Malay electorate in Kuching will vote solidly for the BN this time. In place of Dr Sulaiman who has publicly declared he is not seeking re-election because of his age, PBB is said to have finally picked a Kuching Malay lawyer cum businessman Ibrahim Baki.

There will be one or two new faces including a senior academician, in the PBB line-up. There is talk that Abdul Taib may not contest the parliamentary elections as a first step to gradually withdraw from politics by giving way to younger blood. The party candidates are not expected to face stiff competition in other constituencies.

If the BN top leadership can help resolve the problem on the selection of the candidates for the PBDS group and ensure that there are no efforts on the ground to undermine the choices, BN-PBDS candidates should face little difficulty in being returned.

The bet is that Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has opted to keep the incumbents and trying in the process to persuade his energy, communication and multimedia minister Leo Moggie, the former PBDS president, to stand again because he wants him to remain in his cabinet.

Dr James Masing, who heads the rival faction in the PBDS group, has been said to be keenly eyeing a parliamentary seat himself. Talk is that his name has been put forward by his own group to replace Billy Abit Joo in Hulu Rajang. Masing is said to be interested in moving to Kuala Lumpur should the prime minister let Moggie go after the elections.

Political analysts agree that the BN is unlikely to face any serious challenge from any quarters in the parliamentary elections.

The opposition may put up a spirited challenge but without any electoral understanding, limited resources, difficult logistics, non access to much of the electronic and media and each and every opposition party has its own agenda and purpose, the majority of the Sarawak electorate will likely opt for the only symbol they know best the dacing of the BN.