Sabah round-up Sabah's nine-member ruling coalition is never in any doubt that it will be returned to power come March 21 simply because of the lack of credible alternative and that Sabahan voters do not take the opposition seriously.

It has become, according to seasoned political observers, even more difficult to break the Umno-led Barisan Nasional's stranglehold in the politics of this multi-cultural and multi-ethnic state of three million after the popular Kadazandusun-based Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) led by the charismatic Joseph Pairin Kitingan rejoined the BN.

PBS rules in much of Kadazandusun territory and Umno enjoys an unassailable position in most if not all of the Muslim Bumiputra territory. Between them, the BN's Chinese-based Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), led by a colourful ex-chief minister Yong Teck Lee, and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of another ex-chief minister Chong Kah Kiat as well as PBS control the Chinese urban seats.

There are the two smaller Kadazandusun-based parties - United Pasok Momogun Kadazandusun Murut Organisation (Upko) and Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (PBRS) which have a smaller share of the non-Muslim Bumiputra seats in Sabah's interior areas.

Share of seats

A lion share of the parliamentary (25) and state (60) seats goes to Umno. It will get 33 state seats and 13 parliamentary seats in what is seen as a 3:2:1 sharing formula among the three major races in the state.

PBS, the second largest party, has accepted four state seats less than the 17 it won in the last state elections, besides three parliamentary seats.

Former Chief Minister Bernard Dompok's Upko gets six state seats and four parliamentary seat allocation, including a new seat. SAPP will get a combined allocation of six state and parliamentary seats, while LDP will get one parliamentary and three state seats. For the first time, the MCA in Sabah is to get one parliamentary seat.

Parti Keadilan Rakyat (Keadilan) has announced its decision to contest 27 state and 13 parliamentary seats, vowing to give a strong challenge to the BN, in both urban and rural seats. It has also expressed its desire to co-operate with other opposition parties, including the DAP, "to avoid a split in opposition vote."

Sabah Keadilan is led by Saidatul Badru Tun Said, daughter of a former Governor Tun Said Keruak and sister of state Local Government Minister Salleh Said Keruak, both of Umno.

She is expected to contest in the Karambunai state seat near Kota Kinabalu, the state capital, and state party deputy chief Christina Liew is expected to stand in the Kota Kinabalu parliamentary seat.

Kota Kinabalu DAP branch chairperson Dr Hiew King Chiew ( left ) told malaysiakini that the party would concentrate on two parliamentary seats and not more than five state seats.

According to political analysts, most personalities associated with state opposition leadership were at one time with one or two of the existing BN component parties and had left disgruntled either because they were never considered as candidates or marginalised in internal party feuds.

"They are not serious opposition groups and as such, are not taken seriously by Sabah voters yet," one political analyst said.

"Besides, against the well-oiled BN election machinery and the advantage of incumbency, a loose opposition front seen without much of a direction can hardly be expected to take on the mighty BN," he added.

Some fight

But others, including a senior Kota Kinabalu-based newspaper editor, believe the opposition could give some fight in one or two parliamentary seats in the urban areas, such as Kota Kinabalu.

"You have to understand the propensity of the urban Chinese electorate, especially after PBS is no longer in the opposition and is now with the BN."

"If the voting pattern in the Gaya parliamentary by-election two years ago is any indication, Keadilan with Saidatul as its local chairperson could create some waves in the more vulnerable Muslim Bumiputra seats," he said

But otherwise, according to most observers, the outcome of the state and parliamentary elections in Sabah is never in doubt as far as the BN is concerned. The question is whether the combined opposition is able to break the monopoly.

Issues in Sabah elections include corruption, effects from the loss of forestry revenue as a result of excessive logging in the past, illegal immigrants and to a certain extent fish bombing in Sabah's east coast.

The state BN government under Chief Minister Musa Aman has promised a lot more development when the BN is returned to power, saying that the federal government is committed to help Sabah make up for lost time during opposition-ruled Sabah in the 1980s.

PBS has also promised to back the proposal to scrap the rotation system of the chief minister's post. This means that the party is behind Musa Aman continuing as chief minister so long as he has the blessing and support of Umno and BN.