The rural Malay heartland is a crucial battlefield in Sunday's elections pitting Malaysia's modernist ruling coalition against a determined fundamentalist foe, the Islamic party PAS.

Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, seeking his own electoral mandate five months after succeeding Mahathir Mohamad, is leading the charge of the Barisan Nasional coalition to recapture two key states from PAS and prevent the opposition from making further inroads.

PAS, which aims to introduce an Islamic theocracy in the largely Muslim Southeast Asian nation, is digging in to defend its conquests in the states of Kelantan and Terengganu and has marshalled its best candidates to capture nearby Kedah and Perlis.

Winning the hearts and minds of farmers and fisher folk in the paddy fields and coconut groves of the Malay heartland is crucial as it will determine the future shape of Malaysian politics in a region coming to grips with religious militancy, analysts said.

"As I see it, we have a good chance to capture Kedah and Perlis," declared PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang, citing his conservative party's political machinery and candidates that include religious figures and professionals.

Abdullah, a moderate Islamic scholar, countered after barnstorming through Kedah on Tuesday: "I think there is no shortcut to what we want. We want to win."

Wider implication

Political scientist Chandra Muzaffar, writing in the New Straits Times newspaper today, suggested Malaysians should view PAS in the larger context of other fundamentalist Islamic movements which had come to power worldwide.

He noted that leaders of these groups like those in Sudan and Afghanistan had put more emphasis on implementing the Islamic penal code and restricting the role of women rather than on reducing poverty and improving illiteracy.

"This is why the most critical question confronting both Muslim and non-Muslim voters on March 21... has much wider implications for all of us. It is about the future of our people and the future of our nation," he wrote.

Under moderate Islamic leaders, Malaysia has emerged as one of the most developed Muslim nations in the world, boasting modern highways, gleaming skyscrapers, high-technology companies and a pulsating nightlife of discos and restaurants.

But disenchantment over allegations of corruption, nepotism and remaining poverty in the countryside have been fertile issues for the opposition to exploit.

Anwar factor

PAS dislodged the ruling coalition in Terengganu in 1999, capturing 28 of the 32 state seats in a stunning victory helped by anti-government sentiment over the jailing of former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim.

With the Anwar issue now on the backburner, the focus during the campaign has shifted to other concerns such as the role of Islam in the country and bread and butter subjects like poverty and employment.

Kelantan, one of Malaysia's poorest states, will be harder to recapture as it has been an opposition stronghold since 1990.

In Kedah, the country's rice bowl, PAS is determined to overhaul a 24-12 lead by the National Front in the state seats. PAS holds a slim 8-7 advantage in the parliamentary seats.

In Perlis, another agricultural state near the Thai border, the government holds 12 state seats against three for PAS.

The deciding votes

The rivalry is graphically illustrated in Alor Star, Kedah where the ruling coalition's blue flags and the PAS green moon banners compete for the highest ground.

"Kedah is a real Malay heartland. It has produced two prime ministers. Abdullah cannot afford to lose Kedah," a local political observer told AFP .

But 50-year-old rice farmer Zainal Abidin Hussein said: "We want to capture Kedah in this election."

The swing votes in Kedah could come from the Chinese and Indian minorities.

"We want continuity, peace and stability. The BN has been a fair government. I believe Chinese voters will all come out to ensure it wins," said businessman Ooi Leng Joo, 51.

Zainal disagreed. Pointing to a neatly arranged row of coconut trees, he said: "I believe Chinese voters will sway with the wind just like the tall coconut trees. It happened in Kelantan and Terengganu. It could happen here."

In Perlis, PAS member Azizan Abdul Razak said: "Victory is for God to decide, but we will work hard." - AFP