YOURSAY 'Analyse GE13 all you want, it does not mean anything. We just have to wait and see what happens on the day of the election.'

Prof: Study shows BN will win 120 seats, grey areas 24

your say Gerard Lourdesamy: This is the BN's best case scenario - just 120 seats period. Pakatan Rakyat takes the balance of 102.

The BN will collapse within days as more than 10 MPs from Sabah and Sarawak will jump to the Pakatan or declare themselves pro-Pakatan independents.

And after the Federal Court decision in the Zambry Abdul Kadir case in Perak, the YDPA (Yang di-Pertuan Agong) will have no choice but to dismiss Najib Razak and ask Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim to be PM without the need to call for a vote of confidence in the Dewan Rakyat unless the YDPA takes the questionable step of dissolving the Dewan Rakyat again at Najib's request for a fresh general election.

The YDPA is unlikely to do this since an alternative government can be formed, it is too soon after the previous dissolution and the Crown may become entangled in politics if a fresh GE provides the Pakatan with a bigger majority.

Since the Federal Court has approved party-hopping as part and parcel of the freedom of association as guaranteed in the constitution, there is nothing much that BN can do but cry.

Kgen: Hello, Prof Shamsul Amri Baharuddin, did you take the cheating by BN and the Election Commission into account in your estimation of 120 seats for BN?

Tell us how many seats BN can win in a fair fight without outright cheating by postal voters, phantom voters and clone voters.

Quigonbond: Fair enough - this means Malaysians need to convince fencesitters to make an informed decision. Also it means the drive for free and fair elections take on further urgency.

Why the Election Commission is suddenly willing to set up a committee to check on electoral rolls, while at the same time Selangor census finds 28 percent untraceable voters, is certainly a cause for concern - is BN so confident now that they don't mind the Election Commission do the right thing?

Sepang: Actually, Prof Shamsul, it would be more insightful if this report can go beyond the numbers, and explain how BN can achieve such results.

Would you touch on the actual votes that BN is predicted to get, and contrast it to the seats that they are expected to win?

Would you also touch on the use of public resources, postal votes, phantom voters, illegal workers as Malaysian voters and all government machinery by Umno and BN to win?

iBite: The September survey is obsolete by now.

Two new developments have hurt BN tremendously - the RM40 million allegedly laundered money for Sabah Umno and the suspected interference of justice with a Hummer 4-wheel drive vehicle as bait for a minister to state that the money was a political contribution.

How can BN ever form next government?

Odin: Professor, the general opinion on the ground from one end of Malaysia to the other is that the BN is highly likely to capture at the very least 200 seats.

That's why most of its candidates are chaffing at the bid to have a general election - most, because one is still searching for his blue pills and waiting for a nudge from the mother hen.

Doc: For your information, in the United States presidential election between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, the polls placed them neck to neck, but Obama won with a comfortable margin.

In short, analyse GE13 all you want, it does not mean anything. We just have to wait and see what happens on the day of the election.

Ben-ghazi: I am flabbergasted at the professor's conclusion. He never discussed his methodolgy because he is afraid it will be shot down by real social scientists.

So he gives some numbers to make his conclusions look like as if it was arrived at using some 'esoteric' methods. He is, of course, trying to please his political masters, the BN.

If he is so confident, why didn't he advise BN to have GE13 now?

Hero325: The professor is just trying to measure something which cannot be measured correctly. There is no scientific way to gauge voters' sentiments.

The conclusion drawn from such a survey or so-called research may add more colour and flavour to the outcome of next GE. But to BN and Pakatan, it is as useful as it is useless.

Onyourtoes: Of course, physical science is precise and predictable. But that does not mean social sciences using proper research methodology and statistical inference are totally useless.

It all depends on whether or not the researchers are independent and professional. It also depends on the sampling and method used. The findings may not be precise, but the trend and outcome are usually quite accurate.

In social sciences, this is all that matters. But I am not saying that this piece of research by Prof Shamsul is to be trusted.

Anonymous_3ff5: If Pakatan's belief comes true with 109 seats, it means BN's heyday is over.

Corruption, cronyism, nepotism and abuse of power can be stringently checked and balanced. The going will be tough for BN and only the tough gets going in nation building.

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