ANALYSIS BN’s victorious GE13 foray in Kedah which unseated the Pakatan-led state government is a surprise to many, as it is the only state ruled by the pact that fell while the rest stood firm in the face of the unrelenting BN onslaught.

The ruling coalition not only successfully breached state seats which were once PAS strongholds, but benefited from a rising ‘tsunami’ of Malay support in areas in which they are the majority.

NONE High turnout rates were also observed in areas which saw BN winning comfortably, dominating Kedah with 21 state seats compared to Pakatan’s 15, a reduction of seven seats from 2008.

For example, in the state seat that BN won in Tanjong Dawai, the turnout rate was 88.2 percent, higher than the national average of 80 percent, while others were Jeneri (89.9 percent), Bukit Lada (88.9 percent), Kupang (86.9 percent), Pantai Merdeka (89.4 percent), Ayer Hitam (88.6 percent) and Bandar Baharu (87.3 percent).

The seats saw a hike of up to seven percent in the turnout from the last GE.

This, compounded by the lack of Chinese voters except in Tanjong Dawai and Bandar Baharu , to nullify the wave of pro-BN Malay support, has been tipped as the deciding factors in PAS’s loss in the five seats, something that even the Islamic party acknowledged in its early analysis.

NONE As is the trend nationwide, the Chinese or ‘Tiong Hua’ in the northern state went all-out for Pakatan, an electoral phenomenon dubbed by BN as the ‘Chinese tsunami’, although its effect in Kedah was not enough to counter the ‘Malay Spring’ in this predominantly Malay state.

However, PAS believes that their loss in Tanjong Dawai may have been caused by the 6,000 army postal votes, while the defeat in Bandar Baharu was caused by “internal problems” like infighting and sabotage from disgruntled Pakatan supporters.

The majorities in PAS-won state seats were also reduced this time around compared to 2008. These include Bukit Pinang, Alor Mengkudu, Anak Bukit, Kubang Rotan, Tokai, Sungai Limau and Merbau Pulas.

Political observers believe that the shift was caused by a movement in the electoral tectonics of on-the-fence Malay support from PAS to BN, or more specifically Umno.

As for parliamentary seats, out of the 10 which were won by BN, two are Malay majority seats - Padang Terap and Sik - with 92 percent Malay voters in each.

The winning majorities in BN-won parliamentary seat also saw a drastic increase compared to PAS, which won by thin margins.

Kedah PAS denies apparent rift was a factor

Meanwhile, Kedah PAS has been repeatedly denying the popular analysis that sees alleged weaknesses in MB Azizan Abdul Razak’s administration and his often controversial decisions, as a contributing factor to the slew of defeats for the Islamic party.

The party also denied that Pakatan’s defeat was because of friction between Azizan and former exco member Phalrolrazi Zawawi.

NONE However, based on votes in their home turfs, Azizan’s support took a beating. Despite winning the seat again, his majority was slashed from 3,212 in 2008 to 2,774 this time.

In contrast, Phahrolrazi managed to increase his majority by a small margin from 3,122 to 3,884 votes.

As the old saying goes, if there is smoke, there might be fire.

The apparent rift in PAS was one of the factors referred to by Kedah Umno chief Ahmad Bashah Md Hanipah when saying that the Islamic party’s defeat was caused by “multiple problems” that cropped up in its five-year rule over the state.

Furthermore, the announcement of Muhkriz Mahathir as BN’s MB-designate, and his daring decision to contest in the Ayer Hitam state seat, was said to inject new hope into BN’s chances.

NONE Muhkriz’s father, former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad ( left in photo ), who campaigned on the ground for his son, was also touted as a major factor in reclaiming Umno’s Malay support, setting aside speculations that the electorate would spurn the former premier and his legacy.

Muhkriz yesterday said that while his chances in Ayer Hitam was only 50-50, he had put up his ardent service as Jerlun MP as collateral, in return for support of Ayer Hitam voters.

The hard work Mukhriz has put in in Kedah cannot be refuted by anyone, friend or foe. For example Kedah PAS election director Mohamad Yusuf Hussin admitted that Mukhriz went “all out” and is was difficult to neutralise his advance.