ANALYSIS The fight for the Sungai Limau state seat is a battle between two spheres - the physical, where development is a major issue versus the spiritual, where voters are constantly reminded about the need to preserve their soul and dignity.

NONE"Do not sell your soul for a piece of sarong," PKR deputy president Azmin Ali told supporters in Kg Selengkoh on Friday, while PAS candidate Mohd Azam Samat reminded them about the perils of bribery in the eyes of Allah.

Despite this, BN has poured in millions in terms of financial allocations in Sungai Limau while trying to bank on its "fixed deposits" - the padi farmers and the fisherfolk.

Government ministers, led by Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, have made Sungai Limau their home these past 12 days, disrupting the peaceful lives of villagers here.

NONEAt the same time, BN is also trying to sway the young and Chinese voters with material promises as the two groups are pragmatic and are known to vote based on needs and not emotions.

PAS tries to keep the old folks and women firmly within their grip as these two groups have great influence in their families' decisions to vote.

Sungai Limau is after all a rural seat, where families and friends stay close despite their political differences.

But this war is not only between BN and PAS.

Mukhriz personal battle

This war is fought on several fronts, one of them is for Kedah Menteri Besar Mukhriz Mahathir to redeem himself after losing the chance to become Umno vice-president at its recent by-election.

NONEMukhriz also has the duty to preserve his father's dignity, as a loss for Mukhriz is a loss for Mahathir, the influential former premier, who is seen not just as the political driver behind his son's ambitions, but some say a backseat driver of Umno as well.

On the other hand, Azam is trying very hard to fit in the shoes of former Sungai Limau assemblyperson and former Kedah Menteri Besar Azizan Abdul Razak who has won the seat three times for PAS, which has held it for five terms since 1995.

Azizan died on Sept 26 paving the way for this by-election that goes to polling tomorrow.

More than just a by-election, a Sungai Limau win is also about unity - within Umno as well as within PAS in Kedah.

Both parties are smarting from internal factions and a win or lose in Sungai Limau indicates how well the conflicts have been handled or dealt with, as both parties prepare for GE14.

If BN wins, it would be a major victory for Mukhriz for this is the first time he is leading a by-election, and a victory would seal his strength as head of the Kedah government.

PAS win a redemption

A win for PAS could mend the hearts of its leaders who failed to retain Kedah on May 5, and the party would continue to play its role as a major opposition in the state legislative assembly.

NONEIf PAS loses, or even if its majority is reduced, the party would have to do some serious study on what went wrong and change its strategies for future battles.

Whichever the case, the campaign for the Sungai Limau seat ends at midnight; the votes of the two parties' hardcore supporters will remain firm while some swing is expected in the youth (which makes up 23 percent) among the 27,222 voters.

Some swing is also expected in the Chinese community after RM2.25 million in aid has been given to three Chinese schools as a carrot, although they may opt to support Pakatan Rakyat after Penang Chief Minister and DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng reminded them that Umno has often treated them as second class citizens.

In the final analysis, PAS may retain the seat with a lesser majority, but BN would have made major inroads into PAS' hardcore areas.

In other words PAS may win the election but lose the war; on the other hand, BN may lose the seat but wins the campaign to weaken PAS in its stronghold.