No proof Chinese support has returned to BN

ANALYSIS In the aftermath of the just concluded Sungai Limau by-election in Kedah, the political loyalty of the Chinese community is once again in question, with BN leaders claiming that their support has returned to the ruling coalition.

Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak said the results at a glance showed an increase in Chinese support for BN, although this group makes up just seven percent of the 27,222 voters in the constituency.

Najib said this despite the BN's Umno candidate Ahmad Sohaimi Lzami, 53, losing by 1,084 votes to Mohd Azam Samat, 37, giving PAS another term in the seat that the party has held for five terms.

When the official results for Sungai Limau were released by the Election Commission on the night of Nov 4, Kedah Menteri Besar Mukhriz Mahathir also boasted that 60 percent of the Chinese supported BN.

But how did the BN arrive at this conclusion?

According to EC information, all the 17 polling stations it set up were in Malay majority areas, with more than 70 percent of the community voting there.

Even the polling stations said to be "predominantly" Chinese, such as Simpang Tiga or SRJK (C) Aik Min, the percentage for Chinese voters are only 26 percent, with the remaining 74 percent being Malays.

While it is true that BN won over PAS in Simpang Tiga with a majority of 387 votes, there is no proof that these votes belong to the Chinese when the voting is not categorised according to race.

Or is it that votes cast are no longer deemed "secret"?

The case could be different if a polling centre records 80 to 90 percent of Chinese voters. Then, one can assume that most of the votes are from that community.

Other areas with Chinese voters are Sungai Limau (19 percent Chinese), Kampung Titi Batu, where Sohaimi lives (13 percent); Kabu Sepuloh, a BN hardcore area (10 percent) and Batu 16, where the PAS main election operations centre is located (12 percent).

It is not true that BN led in all the above areas? In Sungai Limau, PAS votes increased by 33 more than that cast in the May 5 general election, while BN's increase was just one more vote, with PAS leading here by 44 votes.

In Batu 16, PAS led by 59 votes, while BN could only increase it votes by 45, from 380 in GE13 to 425 last Monday.

Fewer Chinese turned up to vote

One must also take note that fewer Chinese turned up to vote on Nov 4 - 1,185 compared with 1,400 on GE13 - or 215 fewer voters.

These voters were either living out of Sungai Limau and could not return to work as Monday was a working day or they were peeved for being pressured to proof their loyalty to the government, time and again, every time there is an election.

PKR's Bakar Arang assemblyperson Simon Ooi said MCA is trying to use the Sungai Limau election result to mislead public opinion.

"If BN and MCA say Chinese voters returned to BN, do they mean more Malays voted for PAS this time? Are they trying to say it is a ‘Malay tsunami' this time in Sungai Limau?" Ooi asked.

"If BN really wants the Chinese to support them, it must do its work properly, and improve on the country's economic and safety situations, not just throw money during by-elections," he added.

DAP Kedah Youth deputy chief Lim Zi Yang also thrashed the BN's analysis. The opposition, he said, received positive feedback from the voters who said their support remained with Pakatan.

"We got very positive feedback when we went house-to-house. We did not face any problems or negative moments during our campaign," Zi Yang said.

"We got much support during our Super Saturday dinner in Gurun with Penang Chief Minister and DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng as well," he added.

Asked why not many voters from Sungai Limau attended the dinner, as claimed, Zi Yang denied this, saying, "There are many who did. We sold many coupons to the Sungai Limau voters."

He added that so far there was no proper analysis done on the Chinese voting trend as the comments on the issue were only made by the BN leaders.

He attributed the drop in the majority won by PAS this time, by 1,804 votes, to those who did not to return to vote.

Meanwhile, Gerakan Youth national chief Tan Keng Liang mocked DAP and PKR for not accepting the results.

"In politics, we say that when the wind blows, they (PKR and DAP) still did not feel it. Until now, they don't seem to know what hit them and they cannot accept reality," Tan said.

"Now they give all kinds of excuses because they do not know how to explain to their ally PAS that they failed in their job," he added.

"We can't blame PAS as PKR and DAP were supposed to campaign in non-Malay areas."

Tan said that in the last five months, BN reduced PAS majority win in Sungai limau.

"This is because BN is doing things right now. Mukhriz just said he was willing to listen to the Chinese and treat all fairly.

"We realised our mistakes and have changed our strategy. We are willing to move on. We accept reality and take note of the messages the voters are sending to us, not like Pakatan," he added.