ANALYSIS Well-known religious scholar Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man, who is currently the party information chief, is seen as having a bright chance  to grab one of the three vice-president posts in PAS' Nov 22 polls.

NONEAnother with a  simlar prospects is incumbent Salahuddin Ayub  and the positive indications of their win are based on their popularity, the inclination of the delegates at the coming 59th muktamar of PAS and the number of nominations Tuan Ibrahim and Salahuddin have received.

With veteran leader Abu Bakar Chik's popularity declining in the five-way battle for the three vice-presidencies, leaves Mahfuz and Husam to slog it out for the third vice-president post - as things stand now.

In the last party elections two years ago, Salahuddin obtained 753 votes, comfortably ahead of Husam (660 votes) and Mahfuz (616 votes).

Everything now depends on the assessment that the 1,300 delegates make on the performance of Husam and Mahfuz as elected representatives and their relationship with the grassroots over the last two years.

In terms of performance, there is no dispute that these two leaders have been very active. Mahfuz is known for his Anti-Saman Ekor (Kase) movement while Husam was behind the movement demanding oil royalty for Kelantan and the People's Highway for the state, which he conceived during his tenure as a Kelantan state executive councillor until May.

Husam could have the upper hand...

However, Husam could have the upper hand if the total nominations received by him for both the vice-president and the deputy president's posts are counted.

NONEEven though the selection committee did not announce the numbers, Husam (left) is believed to have garnered the second highest nominations for the deputy president's post, though he is not contesting that position.

That by itself pictures the confidence that the grassroots have in his leadership.

"If you combine the areas that want Husam as a deputy president and those who want him to remain as a vice-president, then Husam's vote base is bigger," a PAS source told Malaysiakini.

"Mahfuz, though, only has nominations for vice-president."

However, in terms of their communication with the grassroots, Husam is seen as being less friendly, often moving alone, and being difficult to contact when needed.

This is in contrast with Mahfuz, who was seen as friendly, accepted by many and is also a less controversial character.

"The delegates know how to evaluate Husam and his brains. Even though he has had some problems in Kelantan, outside of the state, they will support him completely," the source said.

Before this, there has been talk among the grassroots to "rest" Mahfuz, who is also Kedah PAS commissioner, in order to enable him to concentrate on wrestling back the state that fell to BN's hands in the last general election.

Mahfuz's chances seem to be brighter

However, Mahfuz's chances seem to have become brighter after he steered PAS to victory in the Sungai Limau by election on Nov 4, even though the party's majority was reduced.

NONEApart from being seen as a leader who strengthens camaraderie among the Pakatan Rakyat parties, Mahfuz (right) is also the only PAS parliamentarian to win a seat in the northern region of Perlis and Kedah, in the 13th general elections.

His position as PAS' chief whip in Parliament is also exposing his leadership skills to party members.

In the current circumstances, the delegates might be caught in two minds over making a decision on these two vice-president incumbents.

In this, the party's pro-ulama wing and the professional wing are believed to have come with their own ‘chai' (preference) list for the vice-president's posts.

The ulama group is believed to want a combination of Tuan Ibrahim, Abu Bakar, and Salahuddin in the post.

The professional group on the other hand is said to be considering two scenarios: to maintain status quo or to replace either Husam or Mahfuz with Tuan Ibrahim.

However, any kind of a turnaround or change in thinking can take place over the coming week, depending on the open or closed-door campaigning that these candidates would conduct.

PAS' 59th muktamar will take place at the Melawati Stadium in Shah Alam. The elections for different wings of the party is scheduled for Nov 21, while the voting for the central leadership will take place the next day.