Landmark PAS deputy contest too close to call

ANALYSIS With less than 48 hours to go for the PAS elections, the contest between defending deputy president Mohamad Sabu aka 'Mat Sabu' and first-time challenger Nik Mohd Amar Nik Abdullah for the Islamic party's No 2 position looks too close to call.

Neither Mat Sabu nor Kelantan Deputy Menteri Besar Nik Amar can yet beat their chests and declare impending victory in a contest that will likely see votes split along two main factions.

The factions are normally described as those supporting working professional candidates without formal religious background and those supporting the Islamic scholars.

According to sources, the deciding factor could be in the way of influence from other PAS leaders such as Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man ( left ) and Husam Musa, who are known to command a substantial pool of loyal backers.

Husam, for example, obtained the highest nominations in his region to contest for the PAS deputy presidency, but he decided to pull out from the contest at the last minute.

It is still not clear who these two kingmakers, Tuan Ibrahim and Husam, will back.

Some sources said that Mat Sabu may have the upper hand because of 'unfriendly' ties between Nik Amar and Husam, from past squabbles related to the Kelantan state government. Both of them were state executive councillors under the leadership of Nik Aziz Nik Mat and did not get along well.

However, Husam may also have an axe to grind with Mat Sabu. Both had in 2009 competed for the post of deputy president, in a three-cornered clash with former deputy president Nasharuddin Mat Isa.

Husam and Mat Sabu considered forming an alliance then, but failed to reach a compromise. Many saw this split as the edge that helped Nasharuddin, a pro-ulama candidate, to take the post, prevailing over Husam, who was then the party favourite.

Election trends

This is Mat Sabu's third time in the race for deputy president. On paper, based on the voting trends in PAS the last four years, he can be considered to be safely commanding the votes of up to a third of the more than 1,000 delegates.

In 2009, Mat Sabu received the lowest support among the three candidates in the battle. He got 261 votes, against the 281 votes that went to Husam ( left ) and Nasharuddin's 480. Husam's candidacy was seen to have split the vote among the "professionals" group.

Two years later, in the 2011 election, the same trend was reversed. Mat Sabu stood as the only candidate representing the "professional" group and benefited from the splitting of votes among the group that supported the Islamic scholars.

Mohamad Sabu won the 2011 election with 420 votes against Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man (399) and incumbent Nasharuddin (224). But it is worth noting that Mat Sabu didn't win over all of Husam's fans in the last two years.

In fact, a group of Islamic scholars added to Nasharuddin's 480 votes in 2009, and it was also their votes that gave Tuan Ibrahim and Nasharuddin the total votes of 624 in 2011.

This makes the odds of Mat Sabu winning this time around a tough call, since it will be a straight fight with Nik Amar, a candidate with ulama leanings.

The fight will be tough, that is, if all other factors remain unchanged. Or perhaps that's not being realistic...

In terms of activism and leadership, Mat Sabu is seen to be ahead as a national figure, through his frontline role in two major, popular civil actions - Bersih and the People's Rally (Himpunan Kebangkitan Rakyat) at Merdeka Stadium.

Nik Amar is seen by some as a local hero among sub-groups within PAS Kelantan, although that may not be an edge for the Panchor state assemblyperson.

Sacrificing their own struggles?

Mat Sabu has a reputation as an orator with a 'golden voice' and his activism has seen him taken to the courts several times. He had also been detained under the Internal Security Act (ISA).

Nik Amar has had opportunities to leverage on his experience in the state government, where he won the confidence of Nik Aziz, and even substituted for the PAS spiritual leader at several weekly lectures.

Nik Amar is the son of 'Tok Guru Nik Lah' and earned a Master's degree in theology from Birmingham, United Kingdom. He certainly can command higher ground if PAS is looked at as a strictly religion-based party.

On this front, Mat Sabu is tainted by allegations that he is ‘soft' towards the Shiite Muslims, upon whom PAS generally shuns. He was charged with committing khalwat some years ago and this is remembered, even though the court found him not guilty.

The battle inside PAS - the issues