ANALYSIS Now that Liow Tiong Lai, Gan Ping Sieu and Ong Tee Keat have pretty much confirmed that they will run for the MCA presidency, all eyes are now on Dr Chua Soi Lek, the incumbent.

The question among many MCA members is whether Chua will make good his post-GE13 promise to stay out of the party polls to take responsibility for MCA's dismal performance, or come up with an excuse to a seek another term.

Sources close to Chua have told Malaysiakini that the veteran politician is still undecided and he has been ambiguous about the subject when quizzed by reporters in recent months.

NONE Either way, Chua's decision will have an impact on the contest.

Judging by the how the party's 2,385 delegates voted at the MCA extraordinary general meeting (EGM) last month, Chua commands the support of about 900 delegates, about 40 percent of total.

Bear in mind, 900-odd votes were all that was needed for Chua to win the MCA presidency in 2010, which saw a three-horse race.

As for Liow, 1,190 delegates voted against a resolution to censure him at the EGM.

However, this number cannot be taken at face value as real support for Liow because some delegates have complained that the resolution was improper.

NONE Party observers believe that Liow ( left ) commands support of about 900 delegates as well, with the remaining 500 seen mostly as fence-sitters and supporters of Ong and incumbent vice-president Donald Lim.

Incidentally, both Liow and Gan were once Ong's loyalists before the latter's bitter feud with Chua. Thus, it is believed that Liow, Gan and Ong share more or less the same support base, although Liow is believed to have the biggest slice of the pie.

Given these factors, and if all things remain equal, Chua should stand a good chance of retaining his seat if he commands about 900 votes and the rest is split among the trio.

Of course, all those in the contest are fully aware of this. Even Ong did not fully commit to the contest during his announcement on Monday and said his decision hinges on what happens on nomination day, Dec 16.

No clear favourites

Should Chua decide to keep his promise and stay out of the fray, he could still use his vast support base to play kingmaker.

And since he has been involved in bitter battles with both Ong and Liow, and it's unlikely that they will patch up soon, Chua may urge his supporters to back Gan.

But there is no clear favourites among the three contenders.

NONE Generally speaking, Ong and Liow have more baggage than Gan ( right ), who has, for most part, stayed out of the party's factional infighting and has some appeal among the fence sitters.

But if Ong really does show up on Dec 16, he is likely to take the bulk of the fence sitters, making it easier for Liow to bag victory.

Part of Gan's problem is that he is relatively junior within the party and thus not being able to command as much support among the grassroots compared to Liow, Ong and Chua.

Indeed, he has moved up the party hierarchy a little too fast and as a result he doesn't have a long ‘service record' to show.

Meanwhile, Ong faced heavy resistance within the party over his in-your-face policies and has been labelled as a "lone ranger" since taking helm of the party in 2008.

He was ousted 18 months later after Chua's careful manoeuvring, earning him the dubious honours of being the most short-lived MCA boss ever.

Ong's tumultuous tenure saw heavy infighting within the party and he had also failed to leave his post after losing a vote of no-confidence at the 2010 EGM.

NONE Perhaps that explained why he had to bow humbly to reporters at his press conference on Monday to announce his comeback bid.

Meanwhile, Liow has often been described as an "indecisive" and "weak" leader. His infamous and misleading remarks as health minister on the tear gas barrage at Tung Shin hospital and his vanity car number plate controversy are both well remembered by the Chinese community.

As for Chua - should he decide to throw his hat into the ring - he will always be haunted by his sex scandal and the fact that he led a horrendous GE13 campaign.

But whoever emerges victorious in next month's contest will have the unenviable task of winning back support among Chinese voters.