COMMENT Yesterday, I posed the question whether Pakatan Rakyat can rise to the challenge to decide the political future of not only Sabah and Sarawak but the whole of Malaysia in the 14th general election that must be held in less than five years from now.

In my media statements over the past four days, I had illustrated with facts and figures that the three Pakatan Rakyat parties, DAP, PKR and PAS, had achieved their best parliamentary and state assembly election results not only in Peninsular Malaysia but also in Sabah and Sarawak - at one time helming five state governments in Kelantan, Penang, Selangor, Kedah and Perak - during their tripartite cooperation in the 1999, 2008 and 2013 general elections.

Today, in the second last of my six-part series, I wish to present the eight areas of a 12-point strategy that I believe can serve as a blueprint for Pakatan to capture federal power in Putrajaya in the 14th general election.

1. Full and immediate commitment by all Pakatan parties

Full and immediate commitment by DAP, PKR and PAS, whether at national, state or local level, to enhance public support in next four years for Pakatan Rakyat's quest for federal power in Putrajaya in 14GE.

All the three Pakatan parties, at all levels and embracing all wings, whether national, Youth or Wanita, should in the next four years, make full, conscious and immediate commitment to enhance and strengthen public confidence and support for Pakatan Rakyat's quest for federal power in Putrajaya in 14GE.

NONE This should be the common agenda for every DAP, PKR and PAS meeting, at all levels, in the run up to GE14, to increase and maximise not only Pakatan's electoral and political capability in the quest for federal power in Putrajaya but equally important, to enhance public support and confidence in such a political objective.

The various state DAP conventions to be held in the next six weeks, beginning with Negri Sembilan and Penang this weekend, will be excellent occasions to put into practice this first item of the 12-prong strategy for the Pakatan blueprint to capture Putrajaya in GE14.

2. Ensure as fair a delineation exercise as possible

The upcoming electoral delineation exercise is arguably the most important political development that will shape and influence GE14.

For the first time in history, the constituency delineation exercise will involve Sabah, Sarawak and Peninsular Malaysia.

Also, for the first time in history, the BN will not have a two-thirds majority in Parliament for it to ram through the delineation exercise.

In addition, Pakatan has two-thirds control of the state legislatures in Kelantan, Penang and Selangor and more than one-third of seats in the Kedah, Terengganu, Perak and Negeri Sembilan state legislatures.

This means that the number of seats at the federal level and in these states cannot be increased without the support and consent of Pakatan Rakyat.

Pakatan's challenge then is to ensure that the delineation exercise is as fair as possible in terms of the apportionment of seats between the different states so that it follows the one-man, one-vote, one-value principle while at the same time, recognising the unique positions of Sabah and Sarawak.

Equally important is to ensure that the same one-man, one-vote, one-value principle is followed within each state for Parliament as well as state assembly seats.

The most effective mechanism to ensure full transparency in the delineation exercise is to establish a Parliamentary Select Committee for the delineation exercise.

3. Target the areas that it failed to retain in GE13

While Pakatan won seven more parliament seats in GE13 compared with GE12 of 2008 (89 compared with 82), we also failed to defend 15 parliament seats which we won in GE12.

If we had managed to retain all 15 seats, Pakatan would have won 104 seats. This would not have been enough to win power at the federal level but it would have put Pakatan in a much stronger position.

Pakatan's challenge now is to target the areas which we failed to defend in GE13. These seats are Padang Terap, Pendang, Sik, Merbok, Baling and Kulim-Bandar Baharu, all of which are in Kedah; Ketereh, Tanah Merah and Machang in Kelantan; Balik Pulau in Penang; Bagan Serai in Perak; Hulu Selangor and Kuala Selangor in Selangor; and Titiwangsa in KL.

Focused, seat and state-centric strategies will be needed to win back these seats.

For example, split-voting will have to be reduced in Ketereh, Tanah Merah and Machang in order for Pakatan to win back these seats. In all three areas, Pakatan's votes at the state level were more than BN's but yet Pakatan lost these three Parliament seats.

In Kedah, an effective state opposition, a credible line-up of leaders as a government-in-waiting and alternative state policies will be needed in order to capture the middle ground and win back the state.

4. Target the marginal BN seats/areas

In addition, Pakatan also needs to target the other BN marginal seats/areas that we failed to win in GE13. There are 24 parliament seats that BN won in GE13 with less than 55 percent of the popular vote (excluding the above mentioned 15 seats won by Pakatan in GE12).

These include seats such as Cameron Highlands (majority 462), Bentong (majority 379), Sungai Besar (majority 399), Labis (majority 353) and Pasir Gudang (majority 935), all of which were won by BN with less than 1,000 votes.

5. Defend the new seats/areas won in GE13

Pakatan won 15 new parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia in GE2013. We cannot assume that all of these seats/areas will be successfully defended by Pakatan in GE14.

Specific emphasis must be placed on these seats, especially those that were won with small majorities, so that we do not repeat the experience of GE13, where we failed to defend the number of seats we won previously.

Specific seats that require special attention include Kuala Nerus (majority 610), Sepang (majority 1,142) and Batu Pahat (majority 1,524).

6. Defend the marginal Pakatan seats

Just as the BN has its marginal seats, so does Pakatan, which won 17 parliamentary seats with less than 55 percent support (excluding the new seats mentioned above).

These seats need to be defended, especially Bachok (majority 201) and Bukit Gantang (986). If Pakatan is targeting areas where the BN is weak, one can be sure that the BN will be doing the same in areas where Pakatan is perceived to be vulnerable.

7. Use Pakatan-governed states as examples of good governance

One of Pakatan's biggest assets is the manner in which the state governments have differentiated themselves from the previous BN state governments, notably the Penang and Selangor government.

Pakatan's challenge from now until GE14 is to take a further leap in its performance in the Pakatan-held states so as to increase the contrast between the BN government and what a Pakatan government will look like at the federal level.

8. Emphasise rural outreach

There is little doubt that Pakatan won a significant majority of votes in the urban areas in GE13. What allowed BN to maintain power is its strength/Pakatan's weakness in the semi-rural and rural areas. Pakatan's challenge in the lead-up to GE14 is to have a focused rural outreach strategy, especially in the marginal BN seats/areas.

The expected increase in the cost of living as a result of the reduction in subsidies, expected increases in electricity tariff and fuel prices, and the widespread effect of the GST to be implemented in 2015, presents Pakatan with a unique opportunity to relate to the rural voters how the BN government has increased their financial burdens and decreased their disposable income.

Only when the rural voters feel the negative effects of the BN government in their own pockets will a majority of them vote against the BN and support Pakatan. This will have to be one of Pakatan's main strategies in reaching out to the rural areas.

Tomorrow: A focused strategy needed for Sabah, Sarawak

 

LIM KIT SIANG is the DAP parliamentary leader and MP for Gelang Patah.